TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[GTStorm]

It appears it is moving wnw. Check out this loop with the track overlay & you can see a small closed center near the end of the loop moving west north west. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Looks to me like it's following the purple line pretty well.

[tampastorm]

I too clearly see a more Western direction occuring. You can see the center, and the entire storm moving in that direction...

I guess time will tell, maybe this is just temporary, but the storm seems quite happy with this path. Also, the storm looks to be getting a lot more organized?

I am done agreeing, I guess I am missing something.

[Stormavoider]

Is anyone at all receiving any winds from this yet? The highest wind I can find from metar data is from KHST south of Miami and it's only 16mph.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.01N&lon1=80.38W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=1

[Bgator]

All the reds in the thunderstorms have gone away, may be temporary, but who knows...

[Brent]

Is this even a tropical storm? I haven't seen any winds to support it.

[DelrayMorris]

Is anyone at all receiving any winds from this yet? The highest wind I can find from metar data is from KHST south of Miami and it's only 16mph.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.01N&lon1=80.38W&uom=E&dist=250&ot=A&time=1

Edited because I'm stupid and tired and replied all wrong

[THead]

It appears it is moving wnw. Check out this loop with the track overlay & you can see a small closed center near the end of the loop moving west north west. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Looks to me like it's following the purple line pretty well.

Thanks. That's a much better loop, mainly because its a longer period of time than the one I've been looking at. You get a better picture of overall movement.

[Evil Jeremy]

the new center is now closing off, and it appears landfall in Key Largo is now occouring!

[Opal storm]

I live in NC and we had more rain than most locations in Florida today. We had thunderstorms that rolled through off the mountains this evening with wind gusts 35-40 mph. This Ernesto storm is a joke. I love the NHC but in my opinion this is nowhere near a TS.

Ernesto is a joke huh?Have you heard that there were people killed in Haiti becuase of this storm?Easy for you to say it's a joke when you're not down in S FL right now.I've been through many of these storms and they're not fun.I know 40-50mph TS may not sound like much but sitting in your house without power in the middle of the night with howling winds outside is not the most comfortable experience.And if I lived in the Carolinas right now I'd be keeping a close eye on Ernesto,might not be such a joke by the time it comes up to your area.

[Bgator]

Where are all teh winds, teh NHC says they extend 105miles out, someone told me they havent reache dteh surface yet, but as it makes landfall they usaully do is this TRUE??? Please help!

[brunota2003]

Where are all teh winds, teh NHC says they extend 105miles out, someone told me they havent reache dteh surface yet, but as it makes landfall they usaully do is this TRUE??? Please help!

Here is an NHC FAQ on "Maximum Sustained Winds":
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D4.html

[Brent]

Where are all teh winds, teh NHC says they extend 105miles out, someone told me they havent reache dteh surface yet, but as it makes landfall they usaully do is this TRUE??? Please help!

I'll be very surprised if anyone gets sustained TS force winds, outside of maybe a barrier island or the beach. Once the winds hit land they decrease dramatically and since the winds are barely TS force, I doubt they will happen, but if they do they will be gusts in the strongest squalls.

[Opal storm]

The SUSTAINED tropical storm force winds will probably remain along the beaches.This is what happened with Arlene last year.

[Canelaw99]

Is anyone at all receiving any winds from this yet? The highest wind I can find from metar data is from KHST south of Miami and it's only 16mph.

Our local news a bit ago showed that Hstead had winds of 21 mph....coulda fooled me though

[rnbaida]

what is a S2k Supporter?

[THead]

I live in NC and we had more rain than most locations in Florida today. We had thunderstorms that rolled through off the mountains this evening with wind gusts 35-40 mph. This Ernesto storm is a joke. I love the NHC but in my opinion this is nowhere near a TS.

Ernesto is a joke huh?Have you heard that there were people killed in Haiti becuase of this storm?Easy for you to say it's a joke when you're not down in S FL right now.I've been through many of these storms and they're not fun.I know 40-50mph TS may not sound like much but sitting in your house without power in the middle of the night with howling winds outside is not the most comfortable experience.And if I lived in the Carolinas right now I'd be keeping a close eye on Ernesto,might not be such a joke by the time it comes up to your area.

I'll take a "joke" anytime, as opposed to staring down a Cat 3, 4 or 5 on this track.

[krisj]

I live in NC and we had more rain than most locations in Florida today. We had thunderstorms that rolled through off the mountains this evening with wind gusts 35-40 mph. This Ernesto storm is a joke. I love the NHC but in my opinion this is nowhere near a TS.

Ernesto is a joke huh?Have you heard that there were people killed in Haiti becuase of this storm?Easy for you to say it's a joke when you're not down in S FL right now.I've been through many of these storms and they're not fun.I know 40-50mph TS may not sound like much but sitting in your house without power in the middle of the night with howling winds outside is not the most comfortable experience.And if I lived in the Carolinas right now I'd be keeping a close eye on Ernesto,might not be such a joke by the time it comes up to your area.

Believe you me, I'm not taking it as a joke. The Charleston area isn't taking it as a joke either. They just announced an hour ago or so voluntary evacuations and a shortened school schedule for tomorrow.

[brunota2003]

Oh, and from the FAQ on sustained winds, it says that it can occur ANYWHERE within the ciculation, which means the 40 MPH sustained may not occur over land...another thing I noticed is that the winds are at 10m or 33 feet above the surface in an unobstructed area...then you have winds slowing down due to land...

[Evil Jeremy]

what is a S2k Supporter?

someone who pays to support the site.

[rnbaida]

what is a S2k Supporter?

someone who pays to support the site.

so once they donate their avatar gets changed to S2k supporter?