TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[ronjon]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
FLC055-302030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
236 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...
SEBRING.
LAKE PLACID.
AVON PARK.
ARCHBOLD.
VENUS.

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT

* AT 235 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
TORRENTIAL RAIN OF THREE TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR FROM AN INTENSE
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH TROPCICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO OVER THE
WARNED AREA. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
LIKELY THROUGH 430 PM WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

[Sanibel]

I always say watch storms that deepen over land - but Ernesto seems to be the exception. It's a weird one. It shows all the signs of a potential bomber but then shows up as a wimp. Strange storm!

But never let your guard down with something that bursts and shows such a good rotor shape even while over land. I'm sure there's a deluge under that convective burst. Diurnal sun heating probably aided it.

[KBBOCA]

I wonder if NASA is sweating right now given their decision not to shelter Atlantis from the storm. It's looking like the Cape could get some nasty weather yet from Ernesto.

[storms in NC]

Not much longer and he will be off shore some and that is just going to add to things

[storms in NC]

I wonder if NASA is sweating right now given their decision not to shelter Atlantis from the storm. It's looking like the Cape could get some nasty weather yet from Ernesto.

They said on the news last night it was going into hanger.

[SCMedic]

From the Charleston Discussion:

CHARLESTON COUNTY...WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH APPEAR LIKELY. SINCE ERNESTO WILL
REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR ABOUT 18 TO 22 HOURS THERE IS STILL A
CHANCE THAT THE STORM MAY STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

[storms in NC]

You know what happen is just about not all the time when they call for SC is most of the time SC and NC border They seem to like the Cape Fear River. I am just worried over the rain it is going to dump. We are get rain now. and the river is high here.

[KBBOCA]

Storms, I read that they changed that decision after they had started moving Atlantis inside -- that as the forecast improved they rolled Atlantis back out to the launch pad.

Here's a story from the Lakeland Ledger
http://tinyurl.com/mu2j2

[Brent]

No change to the intensity forecast, 45 kt just offshore Charleston tomorrow afternoon. Quickly inland right after that.

[Trugunzn]

Pressure in Vero beach is 1002mb

[theworld]

WOW, check this out


[img]ftp://gp16.ssd.nesdis.noaa.gov/pub/volcano/bh/Tom/Ern-G10-zm-vis.gif[/img]

What is that a pic of? Never saw that before.

Its TD Ernesto's convection blowing up over florida.

WOW. I've never seen convection blow like that over land. The visual is awesone.

[Trugunzn]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

Dropped from 1003mb from 11am advisory.

[Wx_Warrior]

with florida being flat and tons of water..no surprise

[JonathanBelles]

that picture is awesome.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm suprised Ernesto is still a TD.

[Dave C]

I believe the main reason for that blow-up of convection is the aid of daytime heating over the land mass. The east side of the system which is over water shows only minor convection. It will be interesting to see if the convection collapses on the west side over Florida once the sun sets. Definately an interesting situation to watch through the night.

[Brent]

I believe the main reason for that blow-up of convection is the aid of daytime heating over the land mass. The east side of the system which is over water shows only minor convection. It will be interesting to see if the convection collapses on the west side over Florida once the sun sets. Definately an interesting situation to watch through the night.

Agreed.

[whereverwx]

I haven't seen an updated spaghetti model map posted in this topic yet. Can someone please post one? (Oh, and don't post an image of the models from wunderground; I'm already aware of those.) Thanks.

[storms in NC]

He just stepped in the water with his big toe



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[wxman57]

I haven't seen an updated spaghetti model map posted in this topic yet. Can someone please post one? (Oh, and don't post an image of the models from wunderground; I'm already aware of those.) Thanks.

Here you go. Not much change. I removed the BAM & LBAR models. One thing I notice is that Ernesto never looked stronger than it is now. Storms forming near the core. It's certainly a lot stronger than when the NHC called it a TS by Cuba. Outflow appears excellent, too. Watch for it to explode when it moves offshore. Could well be a hurricane when it reaches the Carolinasl