TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[IsaacRules06]

who woulda thought that E would wrap up much better in this spot versus the FL Straits....

he entered both waters right off land....but after leaving Cuba, he was really a disorganized blob, and never even thought about getting fired up before hitting SoFla.

[shaggy]

if that SMFR data is put into the 2pm advisory then they may upgrade the hurricane watches to warnings but i cant see how they will not atleast raise his winds to 65 if that data is correct. Certainly the best looking storm of the season right now looks pretty decent on sat pics

[furluvcats]

Thanks for the webcam link...thats always awesome to have when a storm is coming in....

AJ...thanks to you for your awesome posts.

[JtSmarts]

How many hours do you guys think Ernie has before landfall?

[southerngale]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

I know it is a hurricane now it might be on the low end but a cat 1

You might want to use the phrase, "I *think* it is a hurricane...."

Someone who doesn't know any better could drop into this thread for a quick update, assume you *know* this and be mis-informed since it is not officially a hurricane as of yet.

[artist]

Isaac - yep, and as we well know, from all the great por's on this site, so much comes into play sometimes and timing can be everything. It can take only an hour late for a front to arrive and it came make the difference where that storm goes or how strong it will get. ( Lots of other factors can be involved, as well)

[RevDodd]

Last I heard, the estimated landfall time was 8 p.m.

[storms in NC]

storms in NC - are you a pro? If so can you post what you have telling you that?
Maybe it is - if so it will be posted by the NHC as soon as they have the data to back it up.

No but been watching weather for over 40 years. I am get my info off of TV9 and TV12. I can also look at the sats and tell you that it is very close to Hurricane. So do I beleave it will be a cat 1 when it comes in yes. But like I said I am NOT a pro.
If I upset you I am very very sorry.

[storms in NC]

I hate to do this...because I don't want to set anything off...and hey this may have already been posted someplace else.

But looking at the latest set of rapidscan images...it sure looks like good old Ernie is trying to curl up a banding-type eye.

Can't wait to see what recond finds in there.

MW

I know it is a hurricane now it might be on the low end but a cat 1

You might want to use the phrase, "I *think* it is a hurricane...."

Someone who doesn't know any better could drop into this thread for a quick update, assume you *know* this and be mis-informed since it is not officially a hurricane as of yet.

Yes I was wrong I always put IMO I didn't that time I am sorry I guess Iam alittle jumpy so sorry.

[JtSmarts]

Ernesto 70MPH per TWC

[carve]

ernesto now at 7o mph...from TWC

[Windsurfer_NYC]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

..ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH

[..edit..]
DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

[..edit..]

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.


-----------

Hmmm, so which is it?? 60mph or 70mph???

[Brent]

Yep... 2pm advisory has it at 70 mph.

[artist]

does TWC put out their own forecasts, or is that official? Does anyone know?

[JtSmarts]

Have Hurricane warnings been issued yet?

[carve]

STILL SAY..IF IT KEEPS THIS RAPID DEVELOPEMENT...could be a cat 2..at least a strong cat 1...comments?

not an official forecast...just my thinking..

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

..ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH

[..edit..]
DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

[..edit..]

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.


-----------

Hmmm, so which is it?? 60mph or 70mph???

It's 70, they just didn't correct it in the last part.

[theworld]

here is a good site to watch the beach with and the waters here are 83 that is still warm.

http://www.eilivesurf.com/

Nice cam. Thanks!

[shaggy]

STILL SAY..IF IT KEEPS THIS RAPID DEVELOPEMENT...could be a cat 2..at least a strong cat 1...comments?

well hurricane is looking more and more likely but cat 2 is a stretch...He may make 80mph IF he can drop pressure quickly right now and then the winds would still have to catch up to the pressure drops so he may not make cane until right at landfall UNLESS he has a trick up his sleeve which is possible with ole ernesto...

[Carolina_survivor]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA