Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

x-y-no · #201 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Yep, I see the little vortex rotating southwestward near 20.1N/82.2W. Let's see if I can get a McIDAS shot of it...

I was just checking the visible loop at GHCC and saw this ... I figured storm2k would be on top of it! :-)

#202 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 2:40 pm

You can clearly see it here moving off to the WNW. Notice the thunderstorms and shower activity just off to the east trying to get closer to it. We DONT want that to happen.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

Sanibel · #203 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 3:19 pm

Small surface vortex. Heading 267*

Probably an incidental vortex non-related to active tropical feature.

Highly sheared GOM visible in loop.

Hot here in south Florida.

Chigger_Lopez · #204 Postby **Chigger_Lopez** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:21 pm

Just how conducive is this area for this invest to blossom. It is looking very healthy right now, as a matter of fact, as healthy as a lot of things we have seen this year. It is obvious that whatever form this storm takes, if it gets to about the area of the Yucatan P. , it will come barreling into S. FLorida. Just look at the way the clouds are moving and the way the models, albeit only 2 of them, are lining up. Not to compare this to Wilma but isnt this a similar set up besides not being a 2005 storm? PRO METS?

#205 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 4:42 pm

Chigger_Lopez wrote:Just how conducive is this area for this invest to blossom. It is looking very healthy right now, as a matter of fact, as healthy as a lot of things we have seen this year. It is obvious that whatever form this storm takes, if it gets to about the area of the Yucatan P. , it will come barreling into S. FLorida. Just look at the way the clouds are moving and the way the models, albeit only 2 of them, are lining up. Not to compare this to Wilma but isnt this a similar set up besides not being a 2005 storm? PRO METS?

not a pro met but its clear from history that things can get going *very* quickly down there. Look back a few pages an WxMan showed just how fast Wilma blew up in a similar setup to what we have here. Again, not saying we are going to see another Wilma here - but something tropical is not out of the question - and tracks late Oct to early Nov favor South Florida and Cuba. Later in November is typically east of South Florida.

Windsurfer_NYC · #206 Postby **Windsurfer_NYC** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:28 pm

TWO a little more bullish at 530:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

#207 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:48 pm

Is the title of this thread still appropriate? Any development in the SW or NW Caribbean won't likely be 93L -- I don't think. Anyone have a clue about this?

Cyclenall · #208 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:56 pm

The chances of this becoming a tropical cyclone are 14%. I think it won't form but I wouldn't mind 1 more storm to track.

You can clearly see it here moving off to the WNW. Notice the thunderstorms and shower activity just off to the east trying to get closer to it. We DONT want that to happen.

It's 2006, what could possibly go wrong? :lol:

#209 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 5:57 pm

It is listed as 93L on the Navy Sites

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

#210 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:20 pm

There also seems to be some organization east of Nicaraqua this evening.

Chigger_Lopez · #211 Postby **Chigger_Lopez** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:39 pm

In the latest sat frames, it almost appears as if the blob to the east of Nicaragua is moving towards 93L and 93L is racing towards the blob, looks like it is all going to condense into one big mass. This looks ominous to me.

Jim Cantore · #212 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Tue Oct 31, 2006 9:48 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:It is listed as 93L on the Navy Sites

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

Bit of disagreement, wouldn't you say?

#213 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:08 am

Not looking to bad this evening...

boca · #214 Postby **boca** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 2:29 am

I have to admit 93L down in the Caribbean looks fairly healthy looking and any other year I would say depression would form down there. This year probably not since everything has gone poof.

#215 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:01 am

i give this a chance to form into a depression over the next 3 days, but as for a Tropical Storm, a very weak one at the best.

#216 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:09 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

Looks like a broad low near 18/82. Looks like convection consolidating towards that location, IMO.

boca · #217 Postby **boca** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 9:56 am

If this were any other year but 2006 this area would of popped by now.

Sanibel · #218 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 10:01 am

I wish people would stop being so bullish when 2006 has proven to chop down EVERY SINGLE disturbance this year in this area.

How many busts down here of good-curving disturbances does it take to realize the 2006 effect?

Florida has an interesting circulating feature over it that I would be watching if it were August.

artist · #219 Postby **artist** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 7:13 pm

anyone looked at this this evening??

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

#220 Postby **fci** » Wed Nov 01, 2006 7:22 pm

artist wrote:anyone looked at this this evening??

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

For some reason this feature is being discussed in another thread with a NW Carib disturbance title.

Don't know why, asked in that thread; but got no answer.

Invest 93L Caribbean Sea,Sat Pics,Models and Comments

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