Remnants of Andrea-Thread 2

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Nimbus
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#201 Postby Nimbus » Fri May 11, 2007 7:50 am

For the first time Andrea looks tropical this morning with convection over her center.

Hope she hangs on long enough to draw a front down.
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#202 Postby wjs3 » Fri May 11, 2007 8:15 am

OK--

I have to say I am surprised. All who have posted about this recent flare up of convection are correct. It's close to the center and more impressive, even perhaps showing a touch of outflow to my eye.

The synoptic situation is different too. There's no large scale ascent (that I can see) being provided by a jet streak--as was the case with convection the other day. Clearly, there's no upper divergence from any kind of short wave, etc. this looks like good old fashioned hot tower thunderstorms, I think.

This looks more like a TROPICAL system now. If the thunderstorms can stay around the center--and shear does not appear too bad--see CIMSS--then pressures could lower.

It's marginal at best--SSTs are only around 80 (perhaps lower given how much wave activity and cloud cover has been around the last few days), lots of nasty shear close by.

So I am not really forecasting anything--just nowcasting to say that this looks more interesting to my eye than it has for a few days.

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#203 Postby wjs3 » Fri May 11, 2007 8:18 am

NDG wrote:I'm renaming her to STS Andrea.

That is to Sub-Tropical Smoke Andrea on its western side. It has more smoke than clouds, :lol: :lol:



I noticed that smoke too. I've never seen so much and so widespread.
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#204 Postby cpdaman » Fri May 11, 2007 8:24 am

radar picture shows NE "wall of convection" breaking off in last couple frames also the outer part of the ne portion as well, maybe temporary or maybe the end of her flare up
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#205 Postby NDG » Fri May 11, 2007 8:28 am

I think her renmant low center looks better this morning than what she did yesterday morning when she was still offically a subtropical storm, too funny.
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#206 Postby wjs3 » Fri May 11, 2007 8:35 am

cpdaman wrote:radar picture shows NE "wall of convection" breaking off in last couple frames also the outer part of the ne portion as well, maybe temporary or maybe the end of her flare up


Yes, but I would also note that the convection to the south seems to be intensifying. Hard to say at such a long range with Radar anyway!

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#207 Postby curtadams » Fri May 11, 2007 8:38 am

I go to bed, sure that she's dead. Morning arrives, she's still alive!

So - why no advisories? She looks pretty tropical now and has winds that are at least borderline depression winds. TD's don't get much weaker than this but she's probably a TD and certainly justifies investigation.
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#208 Postby tailgater » Fri May 11, 2007 8:45 am

curtadams wrote:I go to bed, sure that she's dead. Morning arrives, she's still alive!

So - why no advisories? She looks pretty tropical now and has winds that are at least borderline depression winds. TD's don't get much weaker than this but she's probably a TD and certainly justifies investigation.


No investigation Almost everyone on S2K said she's dead :wink:
She sure does look tropical now and still has a lot dry air around, along with some shear still evident from the NNE now. Water temps are warm enough.
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#209 Postby NDG » Fri May 11, 2007 8:51 am

OK here she was yesterday morning when she was still a subtropical storm:
Image

Here she is this morning, when officially she's just a remnant:
Image
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#210 Postby drezee » Fri May 11, 2007 8:57 am

I am loving Andrea, I have recieved 0.43 inches of rain in 18 hours. Doesn't seem like much... but this is the biggest rain in months!
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#211 Postby feederband » Fri May 11, 2007 9:02 am

drezee wrote:I am loving Andrea, I have recieved 0.43 inches of rain in 18 hours. Doesn't seem like much... but this is the biggest rain in months!


I didn't even get a good looking cloud.... :roll:
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#212 Postby tailgater » Fri May 11, 2007 9:05 am

feederband wrote:
drezee wrote:I am loving Andrea, I have recieved 0.43 inches of rain in 18 hours. Doesn't seem like much... but this is the biggest rain in months!


I didn't even get a good looking cloud.... :roll:

Just wash your car, that always works for me. :P
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#213 Postby feederband » Fri May 11, 2007 9:06 am

tailgater wrote:
feederband wrote:
drezee wrote:I am loving Andrea, I have recieved 0.43 inches of rain in 18 hours. Doesn't seem like much... but this is the biggest rain in months!


I didn't even get a good looking cloud.... :roll:

Just wash your car, that always works for me. :P


I have to just to get the ashes off...Plus you have to watch out for the water police...Which is the dog catcher in my area...
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#214 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 11, 2007 9:18 am

LAST NIGHT:
Image

NOW:
Image
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#215 Postby Chacor » Fri May 11, 2007 9:19 am

Code: Select all

916
WHXX01 KWBC 111401
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1401 UTC FRI MAY 11 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070511 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070511  1200   070512  0000   070512  1200   070513  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.7N  79.7W   28.7N  79.5W   28.9N  79.3W   29.5N  78.2W
BAMD    28.7N  79.7W   29.0N  79.4W   29.6N  79.3W   30.5N  79.0W
BAMM    28.7N  79.7W   28.8N  79.4W   29.2N  79.2W   30.0N  78.4W
LBAR    28.7N  79.7W   29.1N  78.8W   30.1N  77.8W   31.4N  75.8W
SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          39KTS          45KTS
DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          39KTS          45KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070513  1200   070514  1200   070515  1200   070516  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.8N  76.0W   29.4N  66.8W   31.3N  51.9W   40.3N  42.2W
BAMD    31.1N  76.3W   35.1N  60.0W   41.6N  58.2W   35.5N  51.3W
BAMM    30.5N  76.1W   32.4N  62.3W   40.8N  54.0W   42.7N  49.5W
LBAR    32.5N  72.8W   33.7N  62.1W   38.6N  50.6W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        53KTS          63KTS          64KTS          58KTS
DSHP        53KTS          63KTS          64KTS          58KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.7N LONCUR =  79.7W DIRCUR = 175DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  29.4N LONM12 =  79.8W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  30.1N LONM24 =  79.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

Code: Select all

116
WHXX01 KWBC 111402
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1402 UTC FRI MAY 11 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE ANDREA (AL012007) 20070511 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070511  1200   070512  0000   070512  1200   070513  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMD    28.7N  79.7W   29.0N  79.4W   29.6N  79.3W   30.5N  79.0W
BAMM    28.7N  79.7W   28.8N  79.4W   29.2N  79.2W   30.0N  78.4W
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070513  1200   070514  1200   070515  1200   070516  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMD    31.1N  76.3W   35.1N  60.0W   41.6N  58.2W   35.5N  51.3W
BAMM    30.5N  76.1W   32.4N  62.3W   40.8N  54.0W   42.7N  49.5W
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.7N LONCUR =  79.7W DIRCUR = 175DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  29.4N LONM12 =  79.8W DIRM12 = 180DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  30.1N LONM24 =  79.9W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   25NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  140NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN

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#216 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 11, 2007 9:22 am

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:

NHC declared Andrea dead last night, but thunderstorm activity has flared up again on the storm's southeast side this morning, and Andrea may be making a comeback. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low until Sunday. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows a marked increase in rainbands along the southeast side of the low, and recent infrared satellite loops show a burst of thunderstorms with cloud tops developing there. Buoy 41009 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral has not shown much change in winds today, which have been running 23-28 mph. This morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed top winds in the 30-35 mph range--tropical depression strength. If the storm had had its current presentation at 11pm last night, NHC would have kept it as a subtropical depression. However, the more organized appearance may just be a transitory burst, and the storm will have to continue to improve in appearance until late this afternoon in order to regain her name. That's not going to be easy, given that water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. I give Andrea a 30% chance of regaining her name over the next 24 hours.

Andrea's remains continue to drift south at about 5 mph, but most of the models show it stalling by Saturday, then getting swept out to sea on Sunday. So it appears now that even if Andrea does make a comeback, it will not bring Florida much in the way of needed rainfall. Bermuda may encounter some gale force winds early next week when the remnants of Andrea interact with an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to develop between Bermuda and the U.S. coast.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200705
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#217 Postby cpdaman » Fri May 11, 2007 9:26 am

"remnants" seems to be sliding a bit east of south of late as well

canaveral bouy still sustained 25 mph with gusts to 34


hopefully will enhance a few afternoon shower/ t-storm in palm beach/ martin county's
Last edited by cpdaman on Fri May 11, 2007 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#218 Postby HURAKAN » Fri May 11, 2007 9:27 am

If Andrea makes a comeback, it has to be as a TD or TS now that the convection is over the center and the circulation is really tight.
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#219 Postby wjs3 » Fri May 11, 2007 9:30 am

Couldn't agree more, Hurakan. Even though Buoy reports show less than TS right now, I wouldn't be surprised to see stronger winds in the convection. The satellite presentation sure makes you think "tropical storm" right away with the circulation evident, doesn't it?

I think Jeff Masters' blog above makes the key point, though...will this convective blossom sustain or fade away?

WJS3
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#220 Postby Chacor » Fri May 11, 2007 9:32 am

Really interesting to note the model runs... SHIPS takes Andrea, or an extratropical system forming from Andrea, to hurricane-force winds (64 kt) in 96 hours!
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