Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

93L is still looking good at the lower levels...But convection doe's not look nearly as good as yesterday. We will have to see if it can break the SAL-Dry air that it likely pulled into it, also it will have to stop moving northward into cooler water. We will see if it gets recurved around 40-45 west; once into the warmer water. Watch it as its running with the shear.

But I would give it 5 percent chance...I do wish there was data to prove that it was a TD last night...But there is none.

[wxmann_91]

It looks pretty bad today. Whoever observed the stable stratocumuli to the west was right... this is clearly starting to enter an unfavorable thermodynamic environment.

[Dean4Storms]

Like I said in another thread I started on this wave. It is impressive for June, but I don't see it making it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It looks pretty bad today. Whoever observed the stable stratocumuli to the west was right... this is clearly starting to enter an unfavorable thermodynamic environment.

Thats right,,,If it were to have stayed below 10 maybe it would of had another day or so to get organized. But overall there is a lot of dry air(SAL and Dust a like) also some strong eastly shear by the fact that the system is moving nearly 20-25 mph. Eastly winds hurt LLC development...Could it have another chance once into the central Atlantic? I would say that the tutt(ULLS) with 30-40 knot shear kill most of that chance...But like said above it is not to be ruled out.

[djones65]

SHIP S 1800 8.00 -27.50 191 231 50 11.7 - 4.9 - - - 30.01 +0.00 81.5 82.4 69.8 12.4 7 - 3.3 -

This ship report, in my opinion confirms what I have read most of you guys have been stating all day today... The system appears to not have a surface circulation and it seems to be at low/mid levels just above surface. The ship report shows northeast winds (50 deg) at 12 kt while located 150 miles or so southwest of the vorticity maximum. I would think the winds would be more northerly if this was a surface circulation. The surface pressure (may not be accurate since I do not know if NDBC is doing quality control) is 1016.3 mb which is much higher than I would have expected. But what is even more evident is dry air... The air temperature is 81.5 degrees and the dew point is 69 degrees. I would expect a much higher dew point, so it appears that wxman91 may be correct in that this disturbance is moving into a stable thermodynamic environment. I personally do not believe this system has any significant chance of developing over the middle or eastern Atlantic, but given its strong vorticity I am not ready to give up on it entirely. I will be interested in seeing how the upper level environment unfolds during the next several days as it propogates westward towards the Caribbean and western Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also much of the "hurricane models" do recurve it by 45 west...But globals show more of a ridge forming to its north. Also based on the speed of the system, proves that there is a strong ridge to the north. With also strong eastly shear. But if it gets pass 12 north, before 35 west; I would say it will recurve like the hurricane models, but the globals say otherwise. In yes the air is dry and also not favorable for development of this system...But it just bursting like it did last night is a big sign for the up coming hurricane season.


Looking at the Gfs shows that a ridge 500 millibar is centered over Africa...Which the flow at 500-700 millibars was northwestward to 25 west. Also a trough from our little distrabance to the north helped to pull it northward. The Gfs shows the Azores building strongly to the north over the next 24 hours...Which will turn it westward again...The question is will another trough or weakness turn it back north to make the recurve like the hurricane models show. Could be be the trough coming off the east coast, while the tutt is upper level in has the most effect with stacked systems. Have to watch all factors.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_12.gif

[WindRunner]

SHIP S 1800 8.00 -27.50 191 231 50 11.7 - 4.9 - - - 30.01 +0.00 81.5 82.4 69.8 12.4 7 - 3.3 -

This ship report, in my opinion confirms what I have read most of you guys have been stating all day today... The system appears to not have a surface circulation and it seems to be at low/mid levels just above surface. The ship report shows northeast winds (50 deg) at 12 kt while located 150 miles or so southwest of the vorticity maximum. I would think the winds would be more northerly if this was a surface circulation. The surface pressure (may not be accurate since I do not know if NDBC is doing quality control) is 1016.3 mb which is much higher than I would have expected. But what is even more evident is dry air... The air temperature is 81.5 degrees and the dew point is 69 degrees. I would expect a much higher dew point, so it appears that wxman91 may be correct in that this disturbance is moving into a stable thermodynamic environment. I personally do not believe this system has any significant chance of developing over the middle or eastern Atlantic, but given its strong vorticity I am not ready to give up on it entirely. I will be interested in seeing how the upper level environment unfolds during the next several days as it propogates westward towards the Caribbean and western Atlantic.

This is very much so the truth. Though this is closer to beind due south of the center, it should should be reading winds around 270, so 050 is definately not close. Unfortunately, the last two quikscat passes missed the center so we have no evidence of a cirulation over the past 24 hours, aside from what was apparent on visible imagery. And even that appeared to only be a storm-relative circulation, which means that it isn't really a closed system - not suprising considering the forward speed. As for the dewpoint, that isn't surprising at all for a system that lacks convection such as this one, especially when you consider that most of the convection it does have is in the NE quad of the circulation. Hence, a Td at 69° is not surprising at all. You are correct that it will be moving into more stable air, but the dewpoint at that location probably would have been like that regardless of what the air in front of this system was like. It's just another typical early June day in the tropics . . .

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Windtalker1]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

At least it doesn't say it "Won't" develope.

[sevenleft]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

At least it doesn't say it "Won't" develope.

I see we have an optimist.

[Windtalker1]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

At least it doesn't say it "Won't" develope.

I see we have an optimist.

I admit....it would be pretty kool to see one form from that area this soon.

[Canelaw99]

576
ABNT20 KNHC 101517
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE HAS DECEASED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Boy, that's just being blunt LOL Deceased....I know it's supposed to be decreased, but it's funny to see it as "deceased".....

[windstorm99]

8:05pm NHC Discussion...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ALONG 25W/26W S OF 14N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 25 KT. A
WEAK 1012 SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N. ASSOCIATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED. UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN
DUST...AND A FAST MOVEMENT WILL HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

[hial2]

Since we're splitting hairs...


http://www.m-w.com/dictionary/hamper

[HURAKAN]

Boy, that's just being blunt LOL Deceased....I know it's supposed to be decreased, but it's funny to see it as "deceased".....

I think that came from the coroner's report!!!

[olddude]

Boy, that's just being blunt LOL Deceased....I know it's supposed to be decreased, but it's funny to see it as "deceased".....

UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN
DUST...

Hmmm... Death by dust...

[Ola]

Boy, that's just being blunt LOL Deceased....I know it's supposed to be decreased, but it's funny to see it as "deceased".....

UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES...AFRICAN
DUST...

Hmmm... Death by dust...

Anotherone bites the dust!

[HURAKAN]

Usually 9 out of 10 bites the dust during an entire season. In June the Atlantic average is usually 10 out of 10.

[hurricanefloyd5]

it's not dead yet

[HURAKAN]

it's not dead yet

You are right, she is in comma!!!