Atlantic INVEST 94L

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If the convection does become almost stationary
with a NW push...slow development and reintegration
of a surface feature is possible....but chances
of development are not great...
Slow development could happen, though the
chance of it is about 25% IMO.

Now my concern is that if we see an almost
stationary set up of convection or a slow
NW push, it moves over warm waters and
stays in a low shear environment for the next
48 hours, and the convection, if
it reintegrates or redevelops a surface low,
could intensify pretty rapidly, and have
time to do so- 48 hours, meaning it
may become intense...
Now this aforementioned scenario
does not have a good chance of happening,
but it is a possibility.

Accounting for the NW push would be a
high pressure area...but that will battle
with a trough that tries to push it off the east
coast....
so we have to wait and see....

[GeneratorPower]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND
ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Cyclone1]

Hmm, the NHC is showing a bit mroe interest. Chances still low though.

[jusforsean]

Wow, its amazing, i started working full time this week and i miss everything not being able to log on and check the forum during the day!! I dont even know if it's raining half the time
I suppose if anything else we are in for quite a soaking from this in south florida this weekend.

[Cyclone1]

Wow, its amazing, i started working full time this week and i miss everything not being able to log on and check the forum during the day!! I dont even know if it's raining half the time
I suppose if anything else we are in for quite a soaking from this in south florida this weekend.

Good!

[tropicwatch]

its way to NW Florida also sharing it with Alabama and Georgia. We all need it badly.

[DESTRUCTION5]

All major models are creating some sort of vorticy crossing south FL this Hr.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[CrazyC83]

Interesting the models now think this might develop...

[Cyclone1]

I know, maybe we'll see a TD-3/ Chantal from this after all.

[Opal storm]

Plenty of convection but no organization at all.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[kozzieman]

Are there any of those models which look like spaghetti noodles in different colors on that Invest 94L yet?

[JonathanBelles]

Are there any of those models which look like spaghetti noodles in different colors on that Invest 94L yet?

Spaghetti models? This is from last night, I couldn't find anything else. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[DESTRUCTION5]

Are there any of those models which look like spaghetti noodles in different colors on that Invest 94L yet?

Yes but thier useless right now..
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_94.gif

[jrod]

All I see is a trough of low pressure that may be breaking in two with a piece going NE from the bahamas. No organization. Like I said before this is just early season hype!

[windstorm99]

Convection seems to be weaking over the past couple of hours.

[Aric Dunn]

im not going to jump the gun in this at all .. i do see some more interesting features starting to take shape but i will keep you informed into this evening..... it still has quite a bit to go ...

[windstorm99]

I'll be waiting Aric.

[Aric Dunn]

I'll be waiting Aric.

im making my assesments now.. will put together at reasoning later after what i think is happening does or its just tricking me

[Nimbus]

There is a large ULL rolling east off Virginia. Looks like the shear is now beginning to come out of the north from the circulation around a large high centered over Mexico.

There is convection streaming northeast up over Cuba but of course there is no center.

Looks like some energy just southeast of Cozumel. If that area persists surface pressures might come down again, as the NHC mentioned it would be slow to develop.

[windstorm99]

NHC 8:05PM Discussion...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NW CARIB N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-87W...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLAND OF
CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING
ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF 15/2100 UTC THE SFC BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF...AND THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ALONG 15N87W 22N86W 27N79W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE
WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD.


Looks like a very rainy weekend for south florida...