Ex Invest 95L

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing there to watch.

Enjoy the week-end. Spend some time with your friends. Head to the links as if you are watching this system, it's going to be a long and painful week-end

[cpdaman]

ARIC what is that feature developing off georgia coast on water vapor loop? is it upper low

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html" target="_blank" target="_blank if link doesn't load fully go to NHC.noaa.gov site and look at NW atlantic wv loop

do you think it will have anyinfluence on changing shear for better or worse on 95L or possibly steering 95L
somewhere, anywhere? or developing itself

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I did not say 0% chance...what I said is both viewpoints of
it developing or it won't develop should be allowed.
So I am not against your viewpoints...I am disagreeing with it...
but I am not censoring it.

[Damar91]

Some of you are something else. Aric, you instigate more than you help. If you know soooo much then. become a pro-met. This board has really gone to crap. It's no wonder some of the old timers don't post any here anymore, not to mention the real pro's who actually know what they are talking about..... Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.....

[cpdaman]

guys i understand the lack of patience. but there is no need to name call

look someone loves tracking storms and is very optomistic about it

if your not optomistic abut storms right now then, i assume you are here to just check in post your question look at the anaylsis and log out . no harm

[Opal storm]

Folks...this is a cloud we're talking about. Are you guys really this bored?

[cpdaman]

anyone care to enlighten me what the feature is off the georgia coast that has developed in the last few hours?

and the shear or steering implications it may have on the low near the lake

[wxman57]

NHC was just declaring it an "invest" so they could run some models on it "just in case", perhaps just for practice for some of the new forecasters.

NHC forecasters are the best in the world and they do not declare invests so people can practice. NHC is a government agency who has a responsibility to protect the people. It really is that simple.

Can you explain how declaring an "invest" on a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms which is not expected to develop (just to run model data or for practice) could in any way harm the public? I know many of the forecasters at the NHC, and they are great forecasters. But I'd wager that 99.9999% of the people in the U.S. and Caribbean don't have a clue at all when an "invest" is declared. So how could they be impacted?

And, remember, there are things to test out. Just in the past week or two there were some significant software changes at the NHC with respect to the model data Any time such changes are made, it's possible that something was broken. So there is a need for testing to be sure that the system will function correctly when the next threat develops. So declaring an invest on a non threat for practice does serve the general public.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone care to enlighten me what the feature is off the georgia coast that has developed in the last few hours?

and the shear or steering implications it may have on the low near the lake

i have been watching it.. it is a uLL loks to be lifting Ne need to wait and see

[x-y-no]

anyone care to enlighten me what the feature is off the georgia coast that has developed in the last few hours?

and the shear or steering implications it may have on the low near the lake

Looks to me like just some divergence-driven convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Some of you are something else. Aric, you instigate more than you help. If you know soooo much then. become a pro-met. This board has really gone to crap. It's no wonder some of the old timers don't post any here anymore, not to mention the real pro's who actually know what they are talking about..... Now back to your regularly scheduled thread.....

i have no need. i can learn without spending all money on it .. i am actually a Physicist I will have my BA in a year in Space Physics and exotic propulsion. but I have been doing the weather thing for quite a long time now.. and I do not instiage .. i just dont let random post that dont say much but tell someone that it wont develop go un answered maybe everyone else does i do not this is a discussion board right?

[Aric Dunn]

guys i understand the lack of patience. but there is no need to name call

look someone loves tracking storms and is very optomistic about it

if your not optomistic abut storms right now then, i assume you are here to just check in post your question look at the anaylsis and log out . no harm

thank you

people just dont get it..

[miamicanes177]

Can you explain how declaring an "invest" on a disorganized cluster of thunderstorms which is not expected to develop (just to run model data or for practice) could in any way harm the public? I know many of the forecasters at the NHC, and they are great forecasters. But I'd wager that 99.9999% of the people in the U.S. and Caribbean don't have a clue at all when an "invest" is declared. So how could they be impacted?

And, remember, there are things to test out. Just in the past week or two there were some significant software changes at the NHC with respect to the model data Any time such changes are made, it's possible that something was broken. So there is a need for testing to be sure that the system will function correctly when the next threat develops. So declaring an invest on a non threat for practice does serve the general public.

NHC even scheduled for recon to investigate on sunday when they declared it an invest. They do not ever, ever, ever, declare hurricanes, tropical storms, tropical depressions or invests "just for practice". If it is for practice, then they would say something to the effect of "this is a test". NHC professionals do not need to practice anything. They are the best of the best. They are the equivalent of the Navy Seals. I never said issuing this invest would harm the public. I said the NHC has a duty to protect the public. By issuing this invest, they are simply following their duty to do just that. They got all the practice they needed before being hired. These are the big boys doing what they do best.

[x-y-no]

NHC professionals do not need to practice anything. They are the best of the best.

Nonsense. I don't care how good you are at any skill, you still need to practice in order to keep that edge.

[jrod]

The only area that looked decent was the area around 29N 57W. About 6 hours it looked good enough to have been a depresion imo. It has been quiet for awhile now like June is suppose to be, we'll get some action soon..........

[cpdaman]

btw i wouldn't want the NHC doing any reconaissance testing and depleting there funds which we all know are not infinite

p.s localized street flooding in delray/boca from afternoon storms occuring now got between 1-1.50 inches

[Jam151]

tampa bay

what ARIC and others are saying is that there is always a chance and thus it is never smart to say there is NO CHANCE when a low is in s.fl with 85 degree water around it

the NHC says upper level winds are not favorable NOW, and also they said upperlevel winds are not favorable for barry but sometimes they can become marginally favorable and allow development

so there maybe a 5% chance , just don't say 0%

thank you
was kind of getting sick of explaining my self

So you guys are saying ameteurs on a forum need to be politically correct in every post they make by giving something a 5% chance of development instead of just saying it won't develop? Come on let people voice their opinion on hopeless Invests freely. There's no being harm done so I feel as though a moot point is being argued.

[Jam151]

NHC professionals do not need to practice anything. They are the best of the best.

Nonsense. I don't care how good you are at any skill, you still need to practice in order to keep that edge.

Right....and the last time I checked, the navy seals still had to practice.

[Derek Ortt]

So you guys are saying ameteurs on a forum need to be politically correct in every post they make by giving something a 5% chance of development instead of just saying it won't develop?

It seems as if the number rule here is that saying something definately will develop is OK, but if you dare to say something will NOT develop, you can expect to be treated the same as William Wallace was by the English

[Aric Dunn]

tampa bay

what ARIC and others are saying is that there is always a chance and thus it is never smart to say there is NO CHANCE when a low is in s.fl with 85 degree water around it

the NHC says upper level winds are not favorable NOW, and also they said upperlevel winds are not favorable for barry but sometimes they can become marginally favorable and allow development

so there maybe a 5% chance , just don't say 0%

thank you
was kind of getting sick of explaining my self

So you guys are saying ameteurs on a forum need to be politically correct in every post they make by giving something a 5% chance of development instead of just saying it won't develop? Come on let people voice their opinion on hopeless Invests freely. There's no being harm done so I feel as though a moot point is being argued.

im sure all this come across different to everyone .. but the point is ... is that i myself am going to question everything that everyone says to find out where and why they came to that conclusion ... and that nobody knows for sure about whats going to happen...... so when there are post saying its dead or something like that .. the new people that come in here even though its says its not official are going to take as if it were.. and when you have 10 post that say its dead.. then you have a tendency to believe it.. the problem is , is that systems have developed many times after it was declared dead.. and is worth making sure people understand that even though it may look terrible and the odd are against it ... it can still happen.. which is very important to combat complacency .

but anyway no big deal .. this is a discussion board and anyone can do as they please .. and im going to question it.. and would like the same in return!!