Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[Berwick Bay]

Yeah, like the NHC outlook says WNW. I think thats our best bet for now, thats why I'm saying through the Greater Antilles with possible development along the S shore of Cuba. The timing of any future development is crucial to what any course might be. So I won't speculate (at least for now) beyond the 3 or 4 day period. But feel pretty good about WNW paralleling Greater Antilles, with possible development south of central Cuba.

[NONAME]

Hey Cycloneye is this effecting St. Thomas much

[HUC]

[img][/img]http://www.meteo.gp/pro/radar/radar.php?Rlocalite=martinique&portee=400

Try to send to you a radar image of Martinica radar Don't know if i will sucess!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with a few of the earlier posts. I think that this one will probably be forced northward possibly threatening the eastern U.S. or Canada, but probably no further west than that. Once the bermuda high builds in next week though; it will be a different story. Anything that forms late next week and beyond should be sent more westward and that is when our real problems may start. The current system is likely just a wakeup call for what is to come later on this season.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, like the NHC outlook says WNW. I think thats our best bet for now, thats why I'm saying through the Greater Antilles with possible development along the S shore of Cuba. The timing of any future development is crucial to what any course might be. So I won't speculate (at least for now) beyond the 3 or 4 day period. But feel pretty good about WNW paralleling Greater Antilles, with possible development south of central Cuba.

I would agree this is a plausible scenario for now.

And FWIW I think the bell just rang for the "real" start of the 2007 season.

[HUC]

No success,someone can explain me the way to post images????I got the Guadeloupe and Martinica radar,and should be glad to send the images for you...

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye is this effecting St. Thomas much

At this moment St Thomas is not being affected by rain.All the action still is south and east of that island.

[DrewFL]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

MON-THU...UPPER VORTEX NEAR NYC WILL LIKELY BECOME CUT OFF...BEFORE
MEANDERING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA. IN ITS WAKE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
STORM CHANCES.

There's a weakness till first of the week.

[fci]

Yep, the CMC saw Katrina ahead of time.

So did "Elysium."

Blind Squirrel finds nut.

Wow, pulling out a FRIGHTENING name from the past...........

Now THAT memory deserves an EEK!!!!

[Sanibel]

There's enough red ir persisting to say there's something developing there. If this flares tonight we should see a clear center developing.

[Dynamic]

No success,someone can explain me the way to post images????I got the Guadeloupe and Martinica radar,and should be glad to send the images for you...

You may use the URL tag instead of the IMG tag, you are trying to include a link not an image.

[fci]

Why haven't any pro-mets commented in this thread?
Usually there are a few mets from Texas who like to comment in this kind of a thread...but their usual comments seem to dismiss any chance for tropical development. Maybe their recent silence means something


Regardless if this wave or past waves had a decent chance for development, we would still see a few pro mets (especially a handful from Texas) usually comment about how unlikely it would be for the area of concern to develop into a depression or tropical storm.

Patience Grasshopper.
If it develops............... they will come (to steal a phrase) (or two!)

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Some of the forecasts I'm reading are reminding me of the seeming scenario when TD #2 in 2004 developed near the eastern Caribbean. It was forecast to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, head northwest toward Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and then head northward out to sea while skirting the East Coast.

Now, I'm not saying that's not going to happen because it most certainly could. However, we all knowwhat TD #2 eventually did: it stayed weak and continued west-northwestward, ultimately landing in the GOM where it finally became Bonnie.

I haven't looked at this feature enough to know exactly what it's going to do. However, I would definitely keep the possibility of this wave continuing west-northwestward across the Caribbean. I'm not going to predict how much this wave will develop right now, but that *may* be the factor that decides which way this system goes.

In short, watch it and see what it does for now.

-Andrew92

[Normandy]

It does look better, if I said it didn't I'd be lying.

But, still its a LONG, LONG LONG way away from becoming a TD.

[Stormcenter]

If anything is trying to get it's act together it would on the
northern most area of the convection. Oh well if nothing at least we
still have something to post about.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Andrew92]

Normandy, I agree that it has a ways to go to become a depression. That's kinda why the possibility for the wave continuing westward should still be considered, unless there's some mechanism going on that I'm not fully understanding (and even then I wouldn't totally rule it out for now). But the majority of these weaker system tend to keep sliding westward before eventually either developing, crossing into the EPAC, or just plain dissipating.

-Andrew92

[HUC]

[url]http://www.meteo.gp/pro/radar/radar.php?Rlocalite=martinique&portee=400[/url]

[Normandy]

^It can't move north right now, its not going to just plow through that ULL to its north. It has no choice but to move WNW.

Oh and Stormcenter, id argue that if it were to develop into a depression tonight, it would develop where all the convection right now is firing, which is SW of PR.

[chadtm80]

[img][/img]http://www.meteo.gp/pro/radar/radar.php?Rlocalite=martinique&portee=400

Try to send to you a radar image of Martinica radar Don't know if i will sucess!!!

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/radar/radar.php ... portee=400

[tolakram]

I'm still looking at that spot where I saw the swirl on the RGB image, now the highest tops are clustered right over it. It's right over or just to the west of the islands.