Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[x-y-no]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

I wouldn't expect TWC to mention a wave that far out there. Their audience, for the most part, is not interested in long-range possibilities like this. If it becomes a TD, or if it gets to the islands as a strong wave - then they'll mention it.

[windstorm99]

Here is another view from EUMETSAT....

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah;something seems to change in this wave behaviour,right now!!!!

Yes this wave is starting to look like trouble and i do not like how the models take it all the way to the east coast even though they are long range. Longe range are very inaccurate, but they hint something.

Yeah....there was also a model run yeseterday that brought this same system close to the east coast, but not as close as the present run...maybe leading to something, but its too far out to know

[canegrl04]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

Unfortunately, it's hard to get in much detail about the tropics in between Head-On commercials and...what's that other one they have? Slap On? Squeeze On? Something?

I can't remember the last time TWC went into that kind of detail. The days of John Hope are gone, unfortunately.

Yep They are nothing but happy tunes over current weather conditions on a USA map with commercials in between.The first named storm possibly about to form in over a month and they don't know wth is going on

[AJC3]

BTW, what do they mean by low amplitude?

Any waveform has two basic characteristics...wavelength and amplitude (well, three actually - if you want to count frequency, but let's not go there). Whenever you hear mention of a "short wave" or "long wave" ridge or trough, the "wave" being referred to is short for "wavelength".

Essentially the amplitude is the "height" of the wave, or how much of a base to crest (usually, but not always entirely N-S or equator-to-pole) expanse the wave has.

Take the back of a 3x5 note card and turn it on its' side. Now take a pen or pencil and draw a line from the bottom left hand corner to the bottom right corner, making a small hill in the middle that goes about two inches from the bottom of the card - you just drew a simple low-amplitude "wave". Now do the same, but come within one inch of the top of the card - now what you have is a representation of a higher amplitude "wave".

There are a few other ways of looking at this. For example...a high amplitude wave puts a bigger N-S "dent" in the underside of the Atlantic ridge. In addition, it will generally be represented by a longer dashed line, since it is a "longer" inverted trough.

Hope I kept this simple enough - sometimes K.I.S.S. is not one of my strong points.

[cycloneye]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

I just saw that lady with glasses not even show a pic of the Eastern Atlantic.The only two persons that I look at TWC the most for reliable information are Steve Lyons and Jim Cantore.

[cheezyWXguy]

BTW, what do they mean by low amplitude?

Any waveform has two basic characteristics...wavelength and amplitude (well, three actually - if you want to count frequency, but let's not go there). Whenever you hear mention of a "short wave" or "long wave" ridge or trough, the "wave" being referred to is short for "wavelength".

Essentially the amplitude is the "height" of the wave, or how much of a base to crest (usually, but not always entirely N-S or equator-to-pole) expanse the wave has.

Take the back of a 3x5 note card and turn it on its' side. Now take a pen or pencil and draw a line from the bottom left hand corner to the bottom right corner, making a small hill in the middle that goes about two inches from the bottom of the card - you just drew a simple low-amplitude "wave". Now do the same, but come within one inch of the top of the card - now what you have is a representation of a higher amplitude "wave".

There are a few other ways of looking at this. For example...a high amplitude wave puts a bigger N-S "dent" in the underside of the Atlantic ridge. In addition, it will generally be represented by a longer dashed line, since it is a "longer" inverted trough.

Hope I kept this simple enough - sometimes K.I.S.S. is not one of my strong points.

I understand amplitude on a normal wave, but ive had trouble relating it to a tropical wave...i understand a tropical wave fits the same description of a normal wave, but I couldnt tell if it was height within the atmosphere(height of cloud tops) or if it had to do with how far north or south it was(lat/lon)...im pretty sure its the first one but i wasnt sure...i guess im a little slow on that part

[stormchazer]

I am appalled at TWC's tropical updates .I tune into them once in awhile each day,and today they say NOTHING about what two models are indicating about the EasAtl. wave.Is Steve Lyon the only true hurricane knowledgable met they have? I don't like the lady with the glasses they have on today

I just saw that lady with glasses not even show a pic of the Eastern Atlantic.The only two persons that I look at TWC the most for reliable information are Steve Lyons and Jim Cantore.

I would never be accused of defending TWC and I am not now, but it is not been mentioned in the TWO by the NHC yet. All TWC does is regurgitate what the NWS says anyway so I am not suprised they did not mention it.

As an extra test, please note the number of acronyms used in the prior comment. Nice huh?

[dwg71]

The reason TWC doesnt mention these waves in their tropical update is mainly based on the fact they are not even at the status of "invest". If they mentioned every possible wave that is in the Atlantic they would confuse the masses. I dont think these waves are worth mentioning yet on a forum such as the TWC. Storm 2k we can debate the intricacies of each wave, but for now its "much ado about nothing" so to speak.

Lets see what happens in the next 48 hours.

[Blown Away]

This has got to be an invest very soon, IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[AJC3]

I understand amplitude on a normal wave, but ive had trouble relating it to a tropical wave...i understand a tropical wave fits the same description of a normal wave, but I couldnt tell if it was height within the atmosphere(height of cloud tops) or if it had to do with how far north or south it was(lat/lon)...im pretty sure its the first one but i wasnt sure...i guess im a little slow on that part

In "met-speak" It's closer to the second, in the way that I mentioned in my earlier post. Amplitude and wavelength are used in reference to a constant height, be it at the surface, 500MB or 250MB...the terms are used to describe the feature within that constant height or pressure surface.

When a met is referring to a feature that has a great vertical extent (depth) through the atmosphere, then they will refer to the feature as being a "deep layer" (trough/ridge/high/low, etc).

[cheezyWXguy]

I understand amplitude on a normal wave, but ive had trouble relating it to a tropical wave...i understand a tropical wave fits the same description of a normal wave, but I couldnt tell if it was height within the atmosphere(height of cloud tops) or if it had to do with how far north or south it was(lat/lon)...im pretty sure its the first one but i wasnt sure...i guess im a little slow on that part

In "met-speak" It's closer to the second, in the way that I mentioned in my earlier post. Amplitude and wavelength are used in reference to a constant height, be it at the surface, 500MB or 250MB...the terms are used to describe the feature within that constant height or pressure surface.

When a met is referring to a feature that has a great vertical extent (depth) through the atmosphere, then they will refer to the feature as being a "deep layer" (trough/ridge/high/low, etc).

oh...i understand now...not perfectly but much more than before...thank you for your explanation

[cheezyWXguy]

This has got to be an invest very soon, IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks to be getting closer...obvious cyclonic turning in mid levels, maybe low level, but not sure. Either way it looks much better than yesterday and looks to be on its way...im not gonna get too excited, but I think this has a decent shot

Here is a better loop of the system:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

[Weatherfreak14]

This has got to be an invest very soon, IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks to be getting closer...obvious cyclonic turning in mid levels, maybe low level, but not sure. Either way it looks much better than yesterday and looks to be on its way...im not gonna get too excited, but I think this has a decent shot

Here is a better loop of the system:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

I am watching the same loop and it looks like the most organized wave of the season thus far and i think an invest will prolly be needed by tonight or tommrow afternoon. It looks really good as the sun is about to set on it.

[canegrl04]

This has got to be an invest very soon, IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It looks to be getting closer...obvious cyclonic turning in mid levels, maybe low level, but not sure. Either way it looks much better than yesterday and looks to be on its way...im not gonna get too excited, but I think this has a decent shot

Here is a better loop of the system:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m8vis.html

I am watching the same loop and it looks like the most organized wave of the season thus far and i think an invest will prolly be needed by tonight or tommrow afternoon. It looks really good as the sun is about to set on it.

"It looks really good as the sun is about to set on it"

Thats what really stood out to me watching the loop. This will be very facinating to watch if it continues to improve. Sure beats hanging on to justwhatever the CMC says at every run.

[Blown Away]

Is there a long range model with the track of this wave or possible storm?

[Weatherfreak14]

yes right here..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_m_loop.shtml.. it takes this storm to the east coast.

[MGC]

There is a lot of dust in the atmosphere surrounding this wave. It will likely meet the same fate as 96L. Check out the visible loop and the dust is very evident. Chances are low that it developes.....MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

There is a lot of dust in the atmosphere surrounding this wave. It will likely meet the same fate as 96L. Check out the visible loop and the dust is very evident. Chances are low that it developes.....MGC

Yes there may be a lot of SAL, but it is much weaker than it was when 96L was there.

SAL map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

when 96L crossed the atlantic, it was surrounded by red...however, now it appears the SAL is lifting north and weakening...

[Normandy]

Dry air not nearly as big of a factor for this as it was for 96L...during its entire lifetime 96L was half composed stable stratocumuli....this looks like it has a bit better of a shot.