Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[Cyclone1]

wxman57 said: How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

<rambling> I'm almost tempted to take that bet, because I'll look awesome if I win, and I could use 50 bucks, but I kind of agree with you. Hmmm.... But with my luck, If I don't bet, it'll have a massive blow up of convection tonight and Recon will end up flying out. I do like wagering though...</rambling> Hmm, nah, I'll catch you next invest, 57.

[NDG]

This is what I see right now...moving east. I can't tell if it's mid or low levels though...probably mid levels.

Sky, that's the MLC, I have been tracking it since earlier this morning, before it went dark the broad low at the surface was closer to where the convection started refiring earlier this evening, and the broad low is with a trough not with a frontal boundary, around 26.5N & 73.5W

[skysummit]

Ok, thanks NDG. I haven't been around much today so when I logged on, first thing I did was take a quick look at IR and saw a spin. Makes sense though

[DrewFL]

How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

Dang 57.....I already slapped down a hundred elsewhere! LMAO!

[wxman57]

How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

Dang 57.....I already slapped down a hundred elsewhere! LMAO!

Ok, then, my offer has expired. Off to bed. When I wake up, the Atlantic will be cloud-free and I can relax on my day off. (no, I'm not taking bets on that one)

[Thunder44]

The QS pass from last earlier tonight shows the "elongated low pressure area" NE of the Bahamas mentioned in the TWO:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds19.png

[DrewFL]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
104 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

EAST COAST TROF...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH A
SUBTROPICAL SFC SYSTEM LIFTING NWD WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE
PROGRESSIVE EAST COAST TROF ON D2-D3. MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS THE
NAM/CMC AND UKMET...WHICH HAVE A SLOWER AND MORE WWD TRACK THAN
THE GFS.


I don't like that!

[Meso]

00
ABNT20 KNHC 290911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Nothing new there

[Thunder44]

00
ABNT20 KNHC 290911
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

Nothing new there

It actually looks like to me it has gotten little better organized in that last couple hours on infrared satellite imagery. But that could be decieving. I can't tell if there is a LLC without visible or QS. Convection has definitely increased:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[DrewFL]

Yeah, the Sat shot shows something......but there is no surface low still!

[Thunder44]

Here is another sat pic:

[caneman]

looks alot better this AM

[DrewFL]

Lot of convection. Caused by the trough and the ULL!
Pretty colors!

[DrewFL]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[caneman]

The trough and ULL has nothing to do with
it taking on a cyclonic appearance. Further it is looking much better than it ever has. upper level winds looking more favorable especially as it moves further North.

[Blown Away]

Just an observation, but it seems over the past 2 seasons the upper level winds have been much more favorable above @30N, last year there was El Nino, this year w/o El Nino, again the ULL's, dust, and shear are dominating the basin again.

[Cyclone1]

Looks pretty good. I don't see any reason to cancel the recon.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

wxman57 said: How about a $50 bet that no recon flies tomorrow?

<rambling> I'm almost tempted to take that bet, because I'll look awesome if I win, and I could use 50 bucks, but I kind of agree with you. Hmmm.... But with my luck, If I don't bet, it'll have a massive blow up of convection tonight and Recon will end up flying out. I do like wagering though...</rambling> Hmm, nah, I'll catch you next invest, 57.

Please, this is not the NBA.

[Thunder44]

QS pass 10:38 UTC shows broad surface circulation near 29N 72W which may not be entirely closed. Winds are very light on west side:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png