INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[flwxwatcher]

Todays 12Z EURO has picked up this wave and shows development now

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7073012!!/

[canegrl04]

Joe doesn't really impress me. (BLASPHEMY!)

JB only gets it right about half the time with his forecasts. I think we will see this becom TS Chantal.Probably not a hurricane,though

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like it is beginning to dry up. I am going to lean on the side of climatology, global model support and the unfavorable MJO that is west of it and say that this system will not develop. As much as I would like to track something, and believe me I do, I do not see enough evidence from any source that leads me to believe that this will develop in to a named storm. If I am wrong, then the global models are of no help in this situation since they show NOTHING more than a bump in the isobars from this system.

[Cyclone1]

Convection almost always wanes this time of day. It'll refire tonight.

[Weatherfreak14]

I still say it has a 30-40% of development. It looks rather well.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Best for those in the Caribbean, SE USA, and GOM to keep a very close eye on a well defined low rider like 99L in the week ahead. This could be the first potential serious threat of the season for you guys.

[boca]

It still looks good even tough the convection is diminishing. If it refires tonight then we might have something. I guess I got prematurely excited about tracking something. We shall see. Looks like a Emily track.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[hurricanetrack]

I agree, it does look pretty good. But how many times have we been fooled by systems like this- in this same area- at this general time of year? Remember Chris last season? What a dud that turned out to be (gooood). There just seems to be something missing from the scene right now.

Someone just posted that the ECMWF develops it- so at least there's one big model on board.

Who knows, this might defy the global model scene and go on to become a named storm. I have my doubts but am open to being wrong

[Stratosphere747]

Euro barely develops it, and takes it into Central America.

[dwg71]

It all comes down to it being able to refire the convection taht is now nearly gone.

[miamicanes177]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 301904
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1904 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070730 1800 070731 0600 070731 1800 070801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 47.1W 10.8N 50.5W 11.9N 54.0W 12.8N 57.5W
BAMD 9.8N 47.1W 10.7N 49.6W 11.5N 52.0W 12.0N 54.3W
BAMM 9.8N 47.1W 10.6N 49.6W 11.4N 52.0W 11.9N 54.2W
LBAR 9.8N 47.1W 10.4N 49.5W 11.4N 52.0W 12.1N 54.6W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070801 1800 070802 1800 070803 1800 070804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 61.5W 15.4N 70.9W 16.6N 80.7W 17.2N 88.9W
BAMD 12.3N 56.6W 12.8N 61.3W 13.5N 66.2W 14.4N 70.7W
BAMM 12.5N 56.6W 13.3N 61.5W 14.2N 66.9W 15.5N 72.2W
LBAR 12.6N 57.3W 13.2N 63.1W 13.9N 69.0W 13.0N 74.0W
SHIP 43KTS 61KTS 71KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 61KTS 71KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 47.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 9.5N LONM12 = 44.7W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 42.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Weatherfreak14]

It all comes down to it being able to refire the convection taht is now nearly gone.

Nearly gone? convection is very evident and suprisingly hung on all through the day.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Cyclone1]

SHIPS still hurricanizes it...

[Blown Away]

The models were initializing around 9.5N. The convection ball, assuming that is the center, is over 11N now. That is a pretty big N jump in a few hours. If that is not the center please show me where it is.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Stratosphere747]

Probably because there is no defined center, and won't likely be one for another day or two, if ever.

[Weatherfreak14]

Well there could be two ideas where the center could be, one in the convection over 11N. and Derek says that the center is down near 10N.

[Derek Ortt]

notice the large spread in the BAM models... that means some major league shear is present, which the Barbados sounding also confirmed this morning. Conditions are fairly hostile for TC formation

[gatorcane]

"center" has jumped north and in the last frame some convection is starting to fire near it...no way its on the 9 degree lattitude...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[dwg71]

It all comes down to it being able to refire the convection taht is now nearly gone.

Nearly gone? convection is very evident and suprisingly hung on all through the day.http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[Derek Ortt]

the center is most certainly near 10N. I have no clue at all where one is getting a center near the deep convection. No satellite image is showing that