99L Thread 7: Data, Analyses, Interpretations, Conclusions

[RL3AO]

Half of the main blob is now north of the northern Honduras. It is not heading due west that is for sure.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is why I say that the LLC is the most important part. If some convection forms any were with in a few hundred miles of a well defined LLC, with a closed surface wind field. In this area has winds of more then 25-30 knots. It is a depression bada bing bada bang. Look at TD 4 of 2000 for a case study to look at. A system like this can have convection the size of texas, in be nothing more then just be a a grouping of thunderstorms half its of the cloud area. I will be truthful that a buoy northwest of the system has turned out of the north. Which is a sign of the wave becoming more tight. Also some change on the buoy to the southwest...Which could mean that it could be developing something,,,but hey its a wait in see. If it slows down in go's west-northwest or northwest, we could have something. The western Caribbean is some what more favorabale.

[mgpetre]

Half of the main blob is now north of the northern Honduras. It is not heading due west that is for sure.

And I know you were initially thinking it would be in the EPAC soon, so your lack of bias confirms that something is happening here (I think.)

[Aric Dunn]

gfdl has it itialized moving west at 27kt

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 80.2 275./27.0

[la wave]

The LSU ESL graphics are 1/2 hour old. Please check them out. Almost real time here lol.

[RL3AO]

Half of the main blob is now north of the northern Honduras. It is not heading due west that is for sure.

And I know you were initially thinking it would be in the EPAC soon, so your lack of bias confirms that something is happening here (I think.)

Or maybe I'm just seeing stuff. After all it is almost 1.

[Aric Dunn]

The LSU ESL graphics are 1/2 hour old. Please check them out. Almost real time here lol.

link

[mgpetre]

gfdl has it itialized moving west at 27kt

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 80.2 275./27.0

I find it hard to trust many models at this moment just due to the lack of general interest expressed by the majority of experts. I find it hard enough to trust models in general.

BTW, I hadn't been checking buoys recently... good idea.

Where are you finding buoy data for that area??

[whereverwx]

This is a nice, detailed close-up.

[RL3AO]

Too bad that buoy south of Grand Cayman failed.

[Aric Dunn]

That is why I say that the LLC is the most important part. If some convection forms any were with in a few hundred miles of a well defined LLC, with a closed surface wind field. In this area has winds of more then 25-30 knots. It is a depression bada bing bada bang. Look at TD 4 of 2000 for a case study to look at. A system like this can have convection the size of texas, in be nothing more then just be a a grouping of thunderstorms half its of the cloud area. I will be truthful that a buoy northwest of the system has turned out of the north. Which is a sign of the wave becoming more tight. Also some change on the buoy to the southwest...Which could mean that it could be developing something,,,but hey its a wait in see. If it slows down in go's west-northwest or northwest, we could have something. The western Caribbean is some what more favorabale.

the only buoy that is working is to far away to give us any reliable data that is happening hundreds of miles away


i have been looking for land reports but they are from like 6 and 8 pm not very helpful now there are no ships since 00z so pretty much we have nothing

[la wave]

I am basically computer illiterate. Plus, I hate to type. Go to the LSU Earth Scan Lab website. Thanks

[Stratosphere747]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/home/

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/

[mgpetre]

Question then... do the people of Honduras even realize that there is the possibility of TS type winds and rain in the next 12 or so hours? I just wonder how different this board would be if this thing was beginning to spin up again just off the coast of TX or LA or FL.

[punkyg]

Ex 99L looks like a td from the south pacific.
any one know what i'm saying. its got the upside down look to it.
just like some td in the south pacific.

[RL3AO]

I just wonder how different this board would be if this thing was beginning to spin up again just off the coast of TX or LA or FL.

Your post would be 2 pages back by now.

[TexWx]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/storms/gulf_wv_loop.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Question then... do the people of Honduras even realize that there is the possibility of TS type winds and rain in the next 12 or so hours? I just wonder how different this board would be if this thing was beginning to spin up again just off the coast of TX or LA or FL.

As of this moment, I very much do not think this has tropical storm force winds. Maybe 20 knot winds with in the convection. We will have to see if any kind of LLC develops.

[Aric Dunn]

Question then... do the people of Honduras even realize that there is the possibility of TS type winds and rain in the next 12 or so hours? I just wonder how different this board would be if this thing was beginning to spin up again just off the coast of TX or LA or FL.

As of this moment, I very much do not think this has tropical storm force winds. Maybe 20 knot winds with in the convection. We will have to see if any kind of LLC develops.

there were three ships at 00z that had winds of 25, 30, and 35kt winds.. i belive there are a least TD winds but no sustained because that would require and tight pressure gradient that i dont think we have .. it was probably just the convection induced

[whereverwx]

Ex 99L looks like a td from the south pacific.
any one know what i'm saying. its got the upside down look to it.
just like some td in the south pacific.

I'm not sure if I see that, but I was going to associate it with Bret from 2005. I recall it having "the look" hours before it was classified at around this time, too.