Long-Term Model Runs

[canegrl04]

GFS was right on target developing Dean from long range forecasting.If they are seeing something the first day of Sept, take it with MORE than a grain of salt

[cycloneye]

The 00z GFS run is starting to roll.Lets see what it shows as in the past runs earlier today it had a couple of lows in 144 hours.

[cycloneye]

18 hours

Too early yet.

[cycloneye]

30 hours

Ding-Dong!! First low off Africa.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

there is a system about to emerge and there is little SAL

Here is the graphic showing the little amount of SAL throughout the Atlantic Basin at this time...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0split.jpg

[cycloneye]

48 hours

Low still close to African Coast.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

Two lows now.

[cycloneye]

72 hours

No lows off Africa and central Atlantic at 72 hours but way up in the northcentral Atlantic a new low shows up.

[cycloneye]

78 hours

In 78 hours there are a trio of lows.

[cycloneye]

90 hours

The trio is still there in 90 hours.One way up and the other two down between Africa and Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

108 hours

One of the lows is not there in 108 hours.This does not compare with the runs that GFS had when what was Dean in the first stages.But neverless shows some lows that will be interesting to follow in next runs of this model.

[cycloneye]

120 hours

One low between Africa and Lesser Antilles.

[Sanibel]

If that first Low makes it that far it won't poof as GFS has it. Otherwise GFS is doing a ghost run.

[cycloneye]

126 hours

Quadruple lows.Nothing too strong so far in this 00z GFS run.Only a few weak to moderate lows.As I said before,it not compares with the initial stages of Dean.I will go to sleep now.Lets see what the other global models bring.

[hurricanetrack]

Looking at the 850 maps, you can see a nice vorticity max track across the deep tropics and run in to the Greater Antilles. It shows up well on the 850 chart animation. Check it out. Could be something to really watch in the coming days as the GFS pops this off early on- not 8,000 hours out in to the future.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Scorpion]

GFS was astounding with Dean.. I'll definitely be paying close attention to the runs the next few days.

[windstorm99]

Nothing to significant on the 06z GFS this morning but it does try and develope a few weak lows in the eastern atlantic eastern atlantic.

[cycloneye]

As the title of thread says long-term model runs distint from the 3-5 days development thread,I am posting this possible development of a hurricane in the long term by GFS in its 12z run.

336 hours

360 hours

384 hours

[flwxwatcher]

The Models have been hinting at development in the Atlantic but looking at the GFS runs with the High coming off the NE Coast of the U.S.later this week I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't have something underneath it later this week in the SW Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 384 hours



Very long range shows at least three potential named systems.Lets see the next runs from GFS and the other global models to see a trend.