Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[DrewFL]

TD4 at 11pm?

Anytime the NHC feels confident in that decision.

[cycloneye]

TIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070812 0000 070812 1200 070813 0000 070813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 20.8W 13.0N 23.8W 14.1N 27.6W 15.2N 32.3W
BAMD 11.8N 20.8W 12.2N 25.0W 12.5N 29.2W 12.8N 33.2W
BAMM 11.8N 20.8W 12.6N 24.5W 13.3N 28.5W 13.9N 32.8W
LBAR 11.8N 20.8W 12.1N 24.2W 12.7N 28.0W 13.1N 32.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070814 0000 070815 0000 070816 0000 070817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 37.2W 17.5N 46.9W 17.6N 56.2W 16.3N 64.6W
BAMD 13.0N 37.2W 13.3N 44.9W 13.6N 52.3W 13.9N 58.3W
BAMM 14.3N 37.2W 14.5N 46.0W 13.9N 54.2W 13.1N 60.0W
LBAR 13.7N 36.5W 13.8N 44.5W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS
DSHP 37KTS 45KTS 51KTS 54KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.8N LONCUR = 20.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 15.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



00:00z run of the tropical models.

[Brent]

TD4 at 11pm?

The 0z models still called it an invest, so highly unlikely.

I honestly think tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, maybe not til Monday. It is way out there and not bothering anyone for a few days.

[canegrl04]

TD4 at 11pm?

The 0z models still called it an invest, so highly unlikely.

I honestly think tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, maybe not til Monday. It is way out there and not bothering anyone for a few days.

For now its not bothering anyone. Next week is going to be exremely busy on this board,as we will likely see TS Dean

[Brent]

TD4 at 11pm?

The 0z models still called it an invest, so highly unlikely.

I honestly think tomorrow afternoon at the earliest, maybe not til Monday. It is way out there and not bothering anyone for a few days.

For now its not bothering anyone. Next week is going to be exremely busy on this board,as we will likely see TS Dean

Agreed, I think it's pretty much a given this will get a name(probably Dean unless something else blows up really quick).

[LarryWx]

Farther west, it could reach the SE U.S. around the 20th-21st (9-10 days from now) if it doesn't recurve.

Based strictly on the history of TD's that formed in the far eastern Atlantic since the late 1800's, the earliest that the lower 48 could be hit would be 10 days from today (Tue. 8/21, which is consistent with the 12Z Euro) and that it would be FL IF that early. A hit on either the east coast above FL or the Gulf coast other than FL would take at least 11 days (Wed. 8/22) and very likely at least 12 days (Thu. 8/23).

[CrazyC83]

What the models say:

CMC - Strong tropical storm, 994mb (at least), N of Leewards (also develops a separate ~982mb hurricane near the east coast of FL)

GFDL - Cat 2 hurricane, 959mb (at least), N of Leewards

GFS - Tropical storm, 999mb (at least), slowly E of Leewards

HWRF - Cat 3 hurricane, 946mb (at least), N of Leewards

NOGAPS - fails to develop

UKMET - Tropical storm, 1002mb (only shows through 48hrs)

[flwxwatcher]

The way the pattern is shaping up, a track similar to Hurricane Georges would not surprise me.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[cycloneye]

The latest 00:15 UTC image.Distint from many other waves that go poof as soon they haved hit the water,this one has mantained convection after it splashed into the water.

[secretforecaster]

Wow! I leave for a few hours & we have an Invest! I pray that everyone is ready...

[windstorm99]

A bending to those models to the west into the caribbean is what iam seeing at the moment.

[DrewFL]

A bending to those models to the west into the caribbean is what iam seeing at the moment.

I am not seeing that at this moment. I have absolutely nothing to back this up....but neither did you.

[JonathanBelles]

I just posted another forecast for both systems.: viewtopic.php?p=1588581#p1588581

[windstorm99]

A bending to those models to the west into the caribbean is what iam seeing at the moment.

I am not seeing that at this moment. I have absolutely nothing to back this up....but neither did you.

Lets hope it stays out to sea for the sake of everybody.Iam curious to see the next run of the ECMWF.

[canegrl04]

The way the pattern is shaping up, a track similar to Hurricane Georges would not surprise me.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

God no.New Orleans does not need this after Katrina

[Vortex]

When does the ECMWF 00z come out tonight?

[HeeBGBz]

NOGAPS - fails to develop

Somebody smack NOGAPS and give him a cup of coffee. No slackers!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

When does the ECMWF 00z come out tonight?

2-3AM Central time.

[Steve]

>>God no.New Orleans does not need this after Katrina

You may recall that Georges was not a big deal in the city at all. People freaked out and blew town, but the worst we had were some gusts into the 40's (maybe some into the 50's at Lakefront). What was bad about Georges was that he hit following severe drought. Even though Frances had given us 10+ inches of rain, there were plenty of dead and dying tree limbs that usually would have been culled as a result of typical afternoon thunderstorms. All those broken limbs did knock out numerous power lines (I think most of the city at one point). But they had everything mostly up and running in a couple of days. We can handle that type of situation especially since we're not in a drought situation now.

*edit* we also lost some buildings on West End due to Lake Pontchartrain's waves. But those are all slabs now anyway for the most part.

Steve

[weatherguru18]

Forgive me if I strike a nerve...but A: New Orleans is still a wreck. IF** it hit there, it's not like it would cause that much more damage. Most of the property is still in ruins there or have since been torn down. B: The people that are back in the city are more than likely able to get themselves out this time as most of the less fortunate have since moved permanetly to other places. C: The city is hurricane weary. It would take even a depression seriously. D: It's only been two years since the hurricane. It would be one thing if it had been 30 years and the city be completely rebuilt.

As a disclaimer, I don't wish misfortune on N.O. AT ALL. I understand that people are trying to get there lives together there again and some already have. I pray it spares them.