Global Models for 90L

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windstorm99
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#201 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:44 pm

Looking decent at 30hrs...
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#202 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:45 pm

Even though the Euro loses the storm, the 500 mb pattern appear condusive for a FL straits path for a soon to be Dean headed toward a weakness along the central Gulf Coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081212!!/
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#203 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:47 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

42 Hour 18Z GFS
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#204 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:49 pm

ronjon wrote:Even though the Euro loses the storm, the 500 mb pattern appear condusive for a FL straits path for a soon to be Dean headed toward a weakness along the central Gulf Coast.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007081212!!/
That's the track Bastardi likes right now. If that were to be correct that's trouble for TX/LA.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#205 Postby CourierPR » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:52 pm

I thought JB was calling for a Savannah hit and a recurve.
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#206 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:53 pm

I spoke with him today and he likes the FL. Straits Major Hurricane position a week from Monday then heading toward LA. Still to early to say even in his opinion but that's what he likes right now.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#207 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:54 pm

GFS- 54hrs

This run looks like it will move into the caribbean.
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#208 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:55 pm

Notice the Low in the Gulf from the Carribbean Wave.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#209 Postby Wx_Warrior » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:56 pm

Not good...This will be a booger.
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#210 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:57 pm

GFS 72 500..Trof digging down is what EURO has pulling it NW

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif
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#211 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 4:59 pm

the trough looks a slight bit shallower on this run. It doesn't extend quite as far south...

18z at 72 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

12z at 78 hrs. = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif
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#212 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:02 pm

GFS 72 Hours Surface

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
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#213 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:03 pm

GFS 90 Hour Surface..Heading for Carribbean

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif
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#214 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:04 pm

GFS 90 HR 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#215 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:05 pm

The system is way south on this run...It may not even make it into the gulf but we'll see.
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#216 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:05 pm

At 90 hrs..The ridge is stronger, the weakness is smaller and the storm is a tad further south than the 12z run.
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#217 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:06 pm

Someone keep posting the surface and 500, i have to get ready for a WXcast.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#218 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:07 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

Getting very close to the Lesser Antilles.

Looks very similar to the 12z so far.
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#219 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:08 pm

102 hrs...

surface = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

500mb = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

It is already reaching the islands in just a little over 4 days from now!

BTW: This is now the 5th run in a row to bring this right toward the Caribbean. Now that we are only ~100 hours out, it is looking likely that that will actually happen. If you are in the islands, watch this closely!
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Global Models for 90L

#220 Postby windstorm99 » Sun Aug 12, 2007 5:08 pm

I see a gilbert track here on this run...
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