Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[punkyg]

As you can see the convection with both the waves we were watching yesterday and Meso's wave have lost most of there convection. i'll be watching them to see if those waves regain there convections.

[Sanibel]

Wave axis appears to be south of 10N. Looks like pre-Felix ITCZ.

[KWT]

12z GFS once again develops this into a fairl ydeep system however I ave doubts about the track from 144-180hrs where the GFS takes it NNW/N...into a 1024mbs high. I suppose I can see why it takes that track as the system tries to follow the weakness way off to the NE but I think it'd take a more westerly track then what its trying to show in the light of the high to its north.
I also note the 12z GFS makes the weakness stronger then the 06z run which allows my part of the world to see a more unsettled set-up around the 17-19th. The GFS is known to sometimes overdo the depth of the upper troughs and also the strength, at least at higher latitudes.

[Meso]

12z CMC

[Buck]

I'd love to see this be a long tracking intense fish system. It seems like some years those are all we get and some years we're hard pressed to get one or two.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.6N 28.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.09.2007 12.6N 28.9W WEAK

00UTC 10.09.2007 12.8N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2007 13.6N 31.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2007 14.7N 32.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.09.2007 15.3N 32.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2007 17.3N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2007 19.6N 34.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 13.09.2007 21.2N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 13.09.2007 22.6N 37.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET.

[HUC]

All the ingredients are in place,but the lack of moisture over the whole bassin,continues to inhibit any continuity of the thunderstorms activity.So,until a drastic change,no great excitement at this time of the season.....But,things as usual may change at any time!!

[perk]

All the ingredients are in place,but the lack of moisture over the whole bassin,continues to inhibit any continuity of the thunderstorms activity.So,until a drastic change,no great excitement at this time of the season.....But,things as usual may change at any time!!

Need i remind you that Dean & Felix developed under less favorable conditions moisture wise than this system to work with.

[Meso]

Fish it seems

[windstorm99]

I see the ECMWF is picking up on this wave MESO.

[HUC]

I know,but what is the reason for the waves to be avoid of deep convection after crossing the 20° W? I don't know the future,i only try to understand what i'am seeing since a week,in the heart of the season

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Huc:D , i thought the same thing because all the ingredients are ok , but no big burst of convection meaning something serious to dug at 20w. I've noticed always a small pocket of dust persistent at 15°N and higher beetween 20w to 60w. Whereas since Monday it seems that the dry aire tendency is on the decrease based on the sahara air layer....I tkink that as you said if there's not a big drastic change the lull will continue as we're in the peak of the season ! We should have to wait and see that's not the moment to let our guards down, but keep in mind that any waves at any time can be suspicious , all the things are going quick in September trend!!!

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml


GFS seems to be keeping this on more southerly path now.

[cycloneye]

More convection South of Cape Verde islands building.

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Cycloneye agree with you.
A very slight increase of moisture can be seen as few pockets of moisture have briefly popped this afternoon in the southern side of the twave....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/wv.jpg
Interresting to note the big cluster farther east:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... et7bbm.jpg

......long time of this one

[tropicsPR]

Convection increasing south of the Cape Verde Islands:

[punkyg]

Convection increasing south of the Cape Verde Islands:

This could be the start of the system the models are predicting will develop, but of course i'm not gonna get too excited yet. Meso darling put a spell on this wave to make it form. KA CHING it didn't work when i did it.

[cycloneye]

The big question TropicsPR,is if the big trough in the north Atlantic will pickup this and send it as a fish.

[HURAKAN]

Just noticed that the floater used for Félix has now been shifted to the CV wave. The NHC may be also looking this area with suspicion.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[tropicsPR]

:uarrow: The big question TropicsPR,is if the big trough in the north Atlantic will pickup this and send it as a fish.

cycloneye my good friend, this huge trough, if remains stationary, likely will pick up the wave if it develops.