Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[vaffie]

Very interesting to look at the 850 mb vorticity in the area. It is apparently strengthening and moving slowly southwestward in the general direction of Miami. A surface low should appear pretty soon if this keeps up.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... oom=&time=

[bwhorton2007]

OK back to Florida need an invest area here i agree.

[Vortex]

H+36 organizing

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[Vortex]

h+42

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_042l.gif

[bwhorton2007]

take your word tampa but i will continue watching texas till it dissapates.

[Kennethb]

Looks like it is under a TUTT, not too favorable for TC development.

[Vortex]

H+48

Just east of S.FL

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

For those who were expecting a mention on the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook,there is nothing.

ABNT20 KNHC 300231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM MELISSA LOCATED ABOUT 410 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE REMNANTS OF KAREN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS
OF KAREN...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE
WWWW

[Vortex]

H+60

Entering Gulf

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[bwhorton2007]

i take back thay invst call after looking at everything nothing out there.At the moment.

[Vortex]

H+66

SW of Tampa


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

[Vortex]

H+72

Stronger and over eastern gulf...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif

[bwhorton2007]

there is a call for some concern over a low under 1000mb's in the gulf this time of year.

[El Nino]

Hello Noël ?

[Vortex]

H+78

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Wow- it's come to watching the NAM for tropical storm formation. You know it's a strange season when that happens.

Can anyone find an NHC advisory that referenced the NAM or former ETA or what ever the heck it has been called over the years?

I just don't remember ever seeing anything like this:

Hurricane Jack is forecast by all of the global models, including the NAM, to turn west under a developing deep layer ridge.

Or....

The forecast track is in best agreement with the NAM.

Let me know if I missed that some time in the past....

[Kennethb]

From Todays afternoon AFD from the NO Weather Office:

DRIER CONDTIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH
EASTERLY WINDS MAY YIELD ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BILOXI MARSH
DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO
BE FRIDAY AS GULF MOISTURE DEEPENS AND SURGES NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. THE NAM SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. WE ARE DISCOUNTING THAT SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AS THE NAM
IS WANTON OF SUCH BEHAVIOR. WILL WATCH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BUT
NOW IS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER.

Wow- it's come to watching the NAM for tropical storm formation. You know it's a strange season when that happens.

Can anyone find an NHC advisory that referenced the NAM or former ETA or what ever the heck it has been called over the years?

I just don't remember ever seeing anything like this:

Hurricane Jack is forecast by all of the global models, including the NAM, to turn west under a developing deep layer ridge.

Or....

The forecast track is in best agreement with the NAM.

Let me know if I missed that some time in the past....

[Vortex]

h+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[hurricanetrack]

Since we are looking at the NAM for tropical storm formation advice, let's take a look at what that 996 mb surface low has above it:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

Overall, looks like very light winds at the 200mb level. But they are cyclonic- that can't be good for a healthy tropical cyclone unless the laws of physics have had an amendment added to them for this season.