2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

The Happy Hour GEFS is less active than the 12Z but it has one H sit over S FL for 96 hours 10/10-14!

[toad strangler]

The Happy Hour GEFS is less active than the 12Z but it has one H sit over S FL for 96 hours 10/10-14!

[gatorcane]

The Happy Hour GEFS is less active than the 12Z but it has one H sit over S FL for 96 hours 10/10-14!

Yeah I saw that, sits and spins for 4 days near or over South Florida, could you imagine?

[WeatherEmperor]

Add the Navgem to the list




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[blp]

FWIW, here is another view of the Navgem out to 180hrs.

[blp]

Euro Ensembles continue stronger with each run.

[gatorcane]

06Z NAVGEM even stronger:

[blp]

Ukmet is a little stronger and faster than the 12z. Models starting to show some agreement.

[blp]

06z GEFS strongest run I have seen so far at 12 days. Looks to have shifted west now more inline with the Euro and other models. The OPS run continues to be way out to the East. I think it is better to keep looking at the GEFS than the Ops Run for now.

[KUEFC]

Why is it better to trust the ensembles rather than the operational?, isn’t it a little nieve to completely discount the operational model runs?

[toad strangler]

Why is it better to trust the ensembles rather than the operational?, isn’t it a little nieve to completely discount the operational model runs?

Well, I have always thought that too much emphasis is placed on the much more covered OPS runs, ESPECIALLY longer range, because almost all the modeled conditions have to be correct right from initialization. Ensembles are many runs conducted by tweaking conditions a bit at the start. Using ensemble blends in the longer range are a very useful tool.

[TheStormExpert]

Why is it better to trust the ensembles rather than the operational?, isn’t it a little nieve to completely discount the operational model runs?

Well, I have always thought that too much emphasis is placed on the much more covered OPS runs, ESPECIALLY longer range, because almost all the modeled conditions have to be correct right from initialization. Ensembles are many runs conducted by tweaking conditions a bit at the start. Using ensemble blends in the longer range are a very useful tool.

In many cases the ensembles set the trend. They also can be an indicator of what future operational runs might show.

[KUEFC]

Fair point, but it’s still not guaranteed to happen is it?,

[ronjon]

Starting to look interesting in the western Caribbean next weekend. GFS and Euro ensembles bullish on development, OP runs of NAVGEM, UKMET, CMC, and ICON all showing cyclone development. Be watching this one carefully sitting on the west coast of Florida. Oh and did I mention it has climatology going for it too.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018093000&fh=90

[Abdullah]

Ukmet is a little stronger and faster than the 12z. Models starting to show some agreement.

https://image.ibb.co/bX2QuK/ukm2_2018100700_168_lant_troplant_prp_fcst_gentracker.png

Where can you find this specific graphic?

[toad strangler]

Fair point, but it’s still not guaranteed to happen is it?,

Of course not guaranteed, at the end of the day these models are merely high tech computer simulations. They are forecasting tools to be used by professional forecasters in conjunction with climo and many other factors

[KUEFC]

Fair point, but it’s still not guaranteed to happen is it?,

Of course not guaranteed, at the end of the day these models are merely high tech computer simulations. They are forecasting tools to be used by professional forecasters in conjunction with climo and many other factors

Truth be told i am just getting a little nervous, we fly to Orlando from the UK on October the 11th, so concerning to see all of this

[NDG]

Models' trend for development next week over the western Caribbean continue to increase, it never fails when there's always a +NAO regime continuing through early Autumn.

[gatorcane]

The GEPS remains bullish with development with some members taking a hurricane NE over peninsula Florida and others NW into the Gulf:

[KUEFC]

The GEPS remains bullish with development with some members taking a hurricane NE over peninsula Florida and others NW into the Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/XNRVk16N/gem-ememb_lowlocs_watl_35.png

Where can I find all these charts?