2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SoupBone]

Is that a gyre in the Gulf lol? What is even happening this run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220825/7250548995a6822c444c1a77324b436c.jpg


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That's what I'm asking, it starts on the tip of Florida, or at least starts consolidating there. Then goes due west across the gulf. It's a very odd run. Looks to be headed toward Houston on this run.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the GFS is cracked out. Can't look at it past 72 hours. No idea. But of course we'll see some graph showing that the GFS performance is in the upper echelon, some time next year.

[SoupBone]

It hooks a hard right off the coast, south of Galveston and then heads due north into Houston.

Can't wait to see what wxman57 says. He loves the GFS.

[skyline385]

Is that a gyre in the Gulf lol? What is even happening this run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220825/7250548995a6822c444c1a77324b436c.jpg


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That's what I'm asking, it starts on the tip of Florida, or at least starts consolidating there. Then goes due west across the gulf. It's a very odd run. Looks to be headed toward Houston on this run.

Yea no clue what this is supposed to be




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[ElectricStorm]

Yep completely different solution for every single system on every single run, welcome to the 2022 GFS

Now obviously I realize models generally are all over the place before a storm actually forms but this seems a lot worse than I remember it being in the past, even for the GFS

[AtlanticWind]

Yep completely different solution for every single system on every single run, welcome to the 2022 GFS

Now obviously I realize models generally are all over the place before a storm actually forms but this seems a lot worse than I remember it being in the past, even for the GFS

It seems like the all the models having trouble resolving the move into peak season.

[Hammy]

Yep completely different solution for every single system on every single run, welcome to the 2022 GFS

Now obviously I realize models generally are all over the place before a storm actually forms but this seems a lot worse than I remember it being in the past, even for the GFS

It seems like the all the models having trouble resolving the move into peak season.

The interaction with the waves and the monsoon trough is giving them a headache. Similar thing happened last August and in the opening few weeks of September 2020

[otowntiger]

Dare I say it looks like we could get thru the month of August w/o a hurricane, maybe even no named storm? Did I just jinx it?

[Cpv17]

Dare I say it looks like we could get thru the month of August w/o a hurricane, maybe even no named storm? Did I just jinx it?

I don’t think that’s gonna happen.

[ScottNAtlanta]

You know, I was sure the models had the last "potential cyclone" wrong and got burned by them being right...I'm not going to be so quick to doubt them within the 5 day period.

[SouthFLTropics]

We all know that the GFS 18z run is famously known as the happy hour run, but lately I think the GFS is on a 3 day bender . The lack of consistency run to run, even in the short term is mesmerizing. The GFS is literally becoming the boy who cried wolf, spinning up storms left and right only to drop them in future runs. It's really hard to believe anything it puts out. But it is good for entertainment.

[skyline385]

12Z ICON again just combining all the waves into a large system




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[sma10]

Dare I say it looks like we could get thru the month of August w/o a hurricane, maybe even no named storm? Did I just jinx it?

It might indeed happen, either way it's going to be close. I do have a strange feeling though that we're going to be in for a wild Sep and Oct

[tolakram]

UKIE

[Iceresistance]

Something is wrong with TT, some model data never comes in, it's most notable on the GFS.

[cycloneye]

Something is wrong with TT, some model data never comes in, it's most notable on the GFS.

Here is Pivotal Weather that is good and updates fast.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... mslp&m=gfs

[Iceresistance]

Something is wrong with TT, some model data never comes in, it's most notable on the GFS.

Here is Pivotal Weather that is good and updates fast.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... mslp&m=gfs

Weathernerds too
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/

[skyline385]

Dry air from near the equator this run, what is going on in the GFS. Even the ITCZ is getting disrupted.




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[sma10]

UKIE
https://i.imgur.com/LYHKUBl.png

Yeah not exactly sure what the models have in store for us, but the dynamic duo (UK/Euro) seems to both be hinting at development in 5-6 days in the same two locations: 1) central atl and 2) CV islands. Genesis looks complicated though, as well as steering.

And GFS looks quite different. Has virtually nothing in central atl, and completely collapses steering.

Such a weird season

[BobHarlem]

UKIE
https://i.imgur.com/LYHKUBl.png

Yeah not exactly sure what the models have in store for us, but the dynamic duo (UK/Euro) seems to both be hinting at development in 5-6 days in the same two locations: 1) central atl and 2) CV islands. Genesis looks complicated though, as well as steering.

And GFS looks quite different. Has virtually nothing in central atl, and completely collapses steering.

Such a weird season

Icon makes it look like the wave dead stops and it becomes a traffic pileup in the central Atlantic.