2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[cycloneye]

for those dissing the 2020 season already on this Late JULY, based on weak storms and such, I gotta feeling ISASIAS is about to put this to the test (assuming Hanna didn't already). After seeing how well he is doing with the interaction with Hispaniola, this thing could go beyond Cat 1 as we begin August... near the US/Bahamas.

2020 will do its own thing, but when Nov 30 arrives, we'll likely be looking back on a season that competed with 2017/2010/2005/1933.

You can also add 1995.

[FireRat]

Definitely 1995, and 1996/1998/1999/2004/2008 for the ACE and the Impacts.

Also other big years of olden times, busy & impact-wise, like 1780, 1926, 1950, 1969. Gonna be interesting times ahead.

[cycloneye]

2020 keep breaking records.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1289168832565669895

[StruThiO]

Yikes

[aspen]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/gmocThu.png

This July has been absolutely insane. I was thinking an AEW-based hurricane was likely, but I didn’t expect 6 TCs, 5 named storms, 4 from AEWs, and 2 hurricanes (both from AEWs). This is a clear signal that the MDR is primed for ASO and we could see many Cape Verde hurricanes throughout peak season.

[StruThiO]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/gmocThu.png

This July has been absolutely insane. I was thinking an AEW-based hurricane was likely, but I didn’t expect 6 TCs, 5 named storms, 4 from AEWs, and 2 hurricanes (both from AEWs). This is a clear signal that the MDR is primed for ASO and we could see many Cape Verde hurricanes throughout peak season.

Given this as well as the state of subseasonal forcing as referenced previously (anomalous rising motion prevailing over the entire tropical Atlantic heading into Sept.) I wouldn't be surprised if the next couple months are amongst the most active on record

[aspen]

Yikes

https://i.imgur.com/gmocThu.png

This July has been absolutely insane. I was thinking an AEW-based hurricane was likely, but I didn’t expect 6 TCs, 5 named storms, 4 from AEWs, and 2 hurricanes (both from AEWs). This is a clear signal that the MDR is primed for ASO and we could see many Cape Verde hurricanes throughout peak season.

Given this as well as the state of subseasonal forcing as referenced previously (anomalous rising motion prevailing over the entire tropical Atlantic heading into Sept.) I wouldn't be surprised if the next couple months are amongst the most active on record

I don’t expect record-breaking activity in August and September. We’d need 8 named storms in August to tie 2004’s record, and 160-170 ACE in September to match 2017/2004. Yes, ASO 2020 is going to be nuts, but it’s going to take a lot of effort to topple those two records.

[Hammy]

This July has been absolutely insane. I was thinking an AEW-based hurricane was likely, but I didn’t expect 6 TCs, 5 named storms, 4 from AEWs, and 2 hurricanes (both from AEWs). This is a clear signal that the MDR is primed for ASO and we could see many Cape Verde hurricanes throughout peak season.

Given this as well as the state of subseasonal forcing as referenced previously (anomalous rising motion prevailing over the entire tropical Atlantic heading into Sept.) I wouldn't be surprised if the next couple months are amongst the most active on record

I don’t expect record-breaking activity in August and September. We’d need 8 named storms in August to tie 2004’s record, and 160-170 ACE in September to match 2017/2004. Yes, ASO 2020 is going to be nuts, but it’s going to take a lot of effort to topple those two records.

I think we're going to see a lull, or at least a slowing down, of activity during August--it seems routine even in the most active seasons, especially if July is active then most often the first half of August isn't. It would not surprise me at all to see record activity at least in total storm numbers during September.

[MarioProtVI]

September is likely to have at least 100 ACE generated IMO at this point, but not anything near 2017-levels. I think several majors and perhaps as much as 7 hurricanes are possible and I have reason to think we’ll see a C5.

[Steve]

This July has been absolutely insane. I was thinking an AEW-based hurricane was likely, but I didn’t expect 6 TCs, 5 named storms, 4 from AEWs, and 2 hurricanes (both from AEWs). This is a clear signal that the MDR is primed for ASO and we could see many Cape Verde hurricanes throughout peak season.

Given this as well as the state of subseasonal forcing as referenced previously (anomalous rising motion prevailing over the entire tropical Atlantic heading into Sept.) I woke uldn't be surprised if the next couple months are amongst the most active on record

I don’t expect record-breaking activity in August and September. We’d need 8 named storms in August to tie 2004’s record, and 160-170 ACE in September to match 2017/2004. Yes, ASO 2020 is going to be nuts, but it’s going to take a lot of effort to topple those two records.

Fair. But those aren’t the only possible records.

[MarioProtVI]

It’s now August officially in UTC and so far we’ve had a record-breaking season in terms of named storms and activity. Things are only going to get more active from here on out... Buckle up everyone, I think we’re in for a very rough ride the next two months.

[Steve]

It’s now August officially in UTC and so far we’ve had a record-breaking season in terms of named storms and activity. Things are only going to get more active from here on out... Buckle up everyone, I think we’re in for a very rough ride the next two months.

Possibly a good part of 3, right? I don't know what's all going to happen. Nobody does. We've never quite been where we are in 170 years at least (+/- 1850s/better record keeping). Obviously that's an extremely small sample in time. But we are heading into August with the biggest head start in named storms. What can't possibly be overstated is how western biased the first 2 months of the season have been. It appears there will be some lengthy periods of upward motion in the Atlantic Basin. So whenever the MJO drops back in the 8-1-2-3 phases, we're going to see named storms. What's cool about Isaias is that it is coming up in Phase 4 of the MJO. That's not a genesis phase in the Western Atlantic, but he formed in 2/3. I haven't looked at the analog maps in a long *** time, but I think one of the spots of Phase 4 is a sliver near South Florida. I could be 100% wrong on that because my memory sucks, but it's not completely gone.

Anyway, like I was saying yesterday, things will get bigger and badder, and that's what we have to worry about. Hanna was strong. Isaias is strong too. So we're progressing in a way that you'd assume would work in a lab, right? May/June you have weaker systems coming up. July things would get a little stronger. August and then September are when you maybe see the potential 3's, 4's, 5's before things slow back except possibly the Caribbean. If there are continued western threats, 2020 definitely has a chance to impact tens of millions of people from the Islands to Central America, to Mexico, the US and Canada. We have to make assumptions, so say we have another 10 hurricanes and maybe 13 or 14 total named storms going forward. There will be far Atlantic spinups and recurves. Even if you would conservatively make that 60%, you'd still have 4 threatening hurricanes and 2 or 3 more tropical storms. So far look at what we have:

Arthur - Cuba, Keys/FL, Bahamas
Bertha - Florida, SC, NC
Cristobal - Louisiana, Mississippi
Dolly - Out to Sea (formed WATL)
Eduardo - OTS (Ireland but formed WATL)
Fay - North Carolina, New Jersey
Gonzalo - Low Rider
Hanna - Texas, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas
Isaias - Florida, Bahamas, ?

Obviously the there has been a significant threat so far to many different areas. It's not even one of those scattershot type seasons. It's been like a spray paint can season to me - Deep South TX up to the Mid-Atlantic with other hits in between. At this point, things are close to home for everybody. We'll see if that continues when things get stronger.

[StruThiO]

Welcome to August!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Welcome to August!

https://i.imgur.com/iyXw1Gw.png

very bad way to start the month.

[TheStormExpert]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

[CyclonicFury]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

It's still fairly early in the season, so Isaias struggling isn't a huge surprise. I think after the current 20/60 AOI which may become Josephine, we may see a lull in activity for 1-3 weeks before the "true" peak season begins in the last third of August.

[TheStormExpert]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

It's still fairly early in the season, so Isaias struggling isn't a huge surprise. I think after the current 20/60 AOI which may become Josephine, we may see a lull in activity for 1-3 weeks before the "true" peak season begins in the last third of August.

True but I’m really starting to have mixed signals as mid-level dry air and SAL seems to be making itself at home in the Atlantic this year. It could be one of those quantity over quality seasons with maybe a significant threat or two a lot like 2012.

[CyclonicFury]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

It's still fairly early in the season, so Isaias struggling isn't a huge surprise. I think after the current 20/60 AOI which may become Josephine, we may see a lull in activity for 1-3 weeks before the "true" peak season begins in the last third of August.

True but I’m really starting to have mixed signals as mid-level dry air and SAL seems to be making itself at home in the Atlantic this year. It could be one of those quantity over quality seasons with maybe a significant threat or two a lot like 2012.

1) Mid-level moisture typically reaches a minimum in the Atlantic in mid-late July, and doesn't start to rebound until later in August. SAL outbreaks are also common through the first two thirds of August as well. Mid-level dry air and SAL makes itself at home in the Atlantic EVERY YEAR early in the season, even in hyperactive seasons.

2) ACE is more than double the average through this date, and we have two hurricanes already when the average first hurricane doesn't form until August 10. As for major hurricanes, none of the last 10 years have had a major hurricane prior to August 21, and 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes occur after that time. Even 2017 and 2010 didn't have major hurricanes before August 25.

[toad strangler]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

It's still fairly early in the season, so Isaias struggling isn't a huge surprise. I think after the current 20/60 AOI which may become Josephine, we may see a lull in activity for 1-3 weeks before the "true" peak season begins in the last third of August.

True but I’m really starting to have mixed signals as mid-level dry air and SAL seems to be making itself at home in the Atlantic this year. It could be one of those quantity over quality seasons with maybe a significant threat or two a lot like 2012.

THE CALENDAR JUST FLIPPED TO AUGUST 15 HOURS AGO

[Hammy]

Before anyone shoots me down I know it’s only August 1st and we’ve seen 10 tropical cyclones, 9 named storms, and 2 hurricanes but what does everyone think the rest of the season will hold as Isaias looks to be on its death bed?

FYI, NOT TRYING TO MAKE THIS A SEASON CANCEL POST!

It's still fairly early in the season, so Isaias struggling isn't a huge surprise. I think after the current 20/60 AOI which may become Josephine, we may see a lull in activity for 1-3 weeks before the "true" peak season begins in the last third of August.

True but I’m really starting to have mixed signals as mid-level dry air and SAL seems to be making itself at home in the Atlantic this year. It could be one of those quantity over quality seasons with maybe a significant threat or two a lot like 2012.

Everything struggled consistently in 2012 and almost served as a precursor to 2013 (not sure if there's any correlation though) where everything struggled to even form. Just about everything under-performed, especially during the peak--almost as if the convergence itself couldn't get going and most storms never developed any sort of inner core. By contrast, this year everything that wants to form is forming and is often not only doing so against common reasoning, but over-performing the forecasts, outside of the MDR itself (but that's been the state of just about every season since 2010.)

I'm very much thinking at this point we get a 2000-esque season, albeit a stronger variant, as late July/early August is behaving like late August did and we're likely to have a lull (or decrease in frequency) for a few weeks, and as Isaias is demonstrating, with the TUTT further to the west.

If it does follow the same pattern (burst of activity in the Gulf/MDR, lull, followed by a gradual buildup of activity with another burst in the MDR) then what we saw at the end of September will most likely go the entire month and into October and that year was already a record (or near-record if it's since been broken) September in terms of named storms.