2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[WiscoWx02]

12z ECENS: Remarkably unremarkable...
https://i.ibb.co/3NpDWGV/ecmjn.jpg

And surprise surprise, the GFS has dropped that Omar like storm. I'm becoming more and more confident with my idea that we have hit the drop off at this point. Models are about as exciting as an empty white room without windows.

The reason why GFS drops any major Atlantic development anytime soon is because, well, not unsurprising, but the WPAC becomes a pezz dispenser for a myriad of powerful cyclones while after the forecast EPAC system (0/40 currently) it spits out yet another cyclone. Idk, given this is very much a La Nina year with the Nino 4 and 3-4 regions very cold (and the Atlantic basin as a whole pretty much above average, with the W Atlantic very much so above average in sst anomalies), I am still not discounting October activity. Remember, the CCKW is supposed to arrive by mid-month, so I wonder if closer to that timeframe models will begin to show more pronounced activity. Imho, the Atlantic is way too quiet right now and for the forseeable future that I just have a feeling that this is just the calm before the last burst in activity.

Ahhhhhhh yes.....GFS Pacific bias. You know, to counterattack my own argument here, the GFS is getting spicy with those powerful as heck troughs digging into the US. The warmth comes right back after each one comes through, but I am wondering if those troughs may actually serve as an ignition once that Kelvin Wave comes through. I have actually noticed that whenever a KV comes through, there is a bout of severe weather in my next of the woods caused by strong negatively tilted troughs that dig far south. Models showing next week could be interesting across the midwest, but the tropics could be impacted as well. Those troughs would assist the KW moving through through pressure pattern mechanics and I am wondering if those troughs that help them are also caused by them, hence the upper midwest severe outbreaks when KW's come through. Point is, I'll be watching out for those troughs in future runs, because if something does happen, I do not think the Gulf is out of the woods. Last year kinda put a stake through that argument with Zeta and Eta. Never too late in the Gulf.

[crownweather]

CFS model has been very consistent in showing western Caribbean tropical troubles in late October. Now, the GFS model is now picking up on the same idea. I don't think that we are nowhere near done in terms of tropical development. Just a brief break until one last burst late Oct/early Nov.

CFS Model:


GFS Model:

[Category5Kaiju]

CFS model has been very consistent in showing western Caribbean tropical troubles in late October. Now, the GFS model is now picking up on the same idea. I don't think that we are nowhere near done in terms of tropical development. Just a brief break until one last burst late Oct/early Nov.

CFS Model:
https://i.imgur.com/QcnuAuR.png

GFS Model:
https://i.imgur.com/cpAcTAT.png

Ok, now that actually makes a lot more sense. The timing and location all line up to fit the favorable CCKW pass, and remember; we're entering a La Nina.

[jhpigott]

CFS model has been very consistent in showing western Caribbean tropical troubles in late October. Now, the GFS model is now picking up on the same idea. I don't think that we are nowhere near done in terms of tropical development. Just a brief break until one last burst late Oct/early Nov.

CFS Model:
https://i.imgur.com/QcnuAuR.png

GFS Model:
https://i.imgur.com/cpAcTAT.png

12z GEFS ensembles have become more active in the WCAR during this time frame as well

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00612&fh=6

[aspen]

I’m leaning towards this GFS WCar system being another long-range bias phantom, but it certainly makes a lot more sense than one this week in the middle of a suppressive Kelvin Wave. The CCKW progression map Iceresistance posted on the indicators thread keeps rising motion over the WCar through the last days of October into very early November.

[Blown Away]

06Z GFS mid range has a TS/Low moving around the NW Caribbean and ultimately moves over SFL.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/cZLuec8.gif
06Z GFS mid range has a TS/Low moving around the NW Caribbean and ultimately moves over SFL.

Meh…with each passing day the conus threat continues to decrease. GEFS and EPS have nothing.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS still showing a TS/Low around the NW Caribbean/Florida... Seems the GFS has shown at least 1 hurricane in the EPAC on every run since mid August...

[Category5Kaiju]

So while nothing exceptionally eye-popping, the GFS's most recent run shows 92L become a short lived but bona fide Eastern Seaboard-paralleling TC while another system with an indicated pressure in the 1000s mbar develops over Hispaniola by next week or so (likely spawned by a tropical wave from the MDR). 92L's chances are now 20/30, and the NHC notes a chance that it could become a TC later this weekend. The potential for activity this month is still very tangible the way I see it.

[emeraldislenc]

Can't believe how quite it is for October 9.

[otowntiger]

Can't believe how quite it is for October 9.

Yep- it is quite quiet around here, especially for mid October. Let’s hope the month continues this way and the season ends very mildly.

[Category5Kaiju]

What I find weird is how unenthusiastic the models are with EPAC activity post Pamela and WPAC activity after the current storms leave the picture, with no significant storms expected. Is this even possible in a given La Niña year, for all three basins to go quiet in mid October and beyond with nothing huge?

[boca]

What I find weird is how unenthusiastic the models are with EPAC activity post Pamela and WPAC activity after the current storms leave the picture, with no significant storms expected. Is this even possible in a given La Niña year, for all three basins to go quiet in mid October and beyond with nothing huge?

It is very quiet and we lucked out here in the continental US besides Ida that it could of been a lot worse. Every storm recurved due to a weak Bermuda high and a progressive pattern.

[blp]

I think one more burst is coming last week of October. Don't hibernate just yet.

[dexterlabio]

What I find weird is how unenthusiastic the models are with EPAC activity post Pamela and WPAC activity after the current storms leave the picture, with no significant storms expected. Is this even possible in a given La Niña year, for all three basins to go quiet in mid October and beyond with nothing huge?

I think 2011 comes close to that description, if not for EPAC producing a surprise Cat4 in November (Kenneth). WPAC that year almost appeared to have its earliest end for a typhoon season, as nothing developed after October. If I'm not mistaken, ATL also had its last major TC in October.

[kevin]

The GFS operational run finally shows something, at +330 hr... Anyways, here it is, a hurricane into Cuba and the Bahamas:

[SFLcane]

The GFS operational run finally shows something, at +330 hr... Anyways, here it is, a hurricane into Cuba and the Bahamas:

https://i.imgur.com/hOMmwmb.png

Good luck there… you’ll be playing fantasy with the gfs till December.

[kevin]

The GFS operational run finally shows something, at +330 hr... Anyways, here it is, a hurricane into Cuba and the Bahamas:

https://i.imgur.com/hOMmwmb.png

Good luck there… you’ll be playing fantasy with the gfs till December.

Haha indeed, that's why I put the three dots in my sentence. I'll pay attention to it when genesis enters the +90 hr region.

[SFLcane]

Just going off the gfs i can see some type of weak low developing down in the Caribbean sure but it will not be any issue for the Conus and Florida with that shear fest. Maybe tracking similar to Paloma or something like that.

It’s about time to bring down the curtain on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season in terms of impacts.

[CourierPR]

Just going off the gfs i can see some type of weak low developing down in the Caribbean sure but it will not be any issue for the Conus and Florida with that shear fest. Maybe tracking similar to Paloma or something like that.

It’s about time to bring down the curtain on the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season in terms of impacts.

https://i.postimg.cc/sfJVMFpG/7-A07-E138-BAFA-4102-82-E1-9-FDCC9-A038-EB.gif

I am a native Floridian and the last time I checked, Florida was still a part of the continental US.