TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[CronkPSU]

00:00z Models.

veeeeeery interesting

[Sanibel]

Looking better on WV.

Also looking like offshore recurve.


What would make it move west under that weak horizontal trough?

[Normandy]

How are the BAMD and UKMET plowing it through a ridge? Guess they see a big weakness.

[Hyperstorm]

dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???

NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.

Trending west again as of 00Z

This has been posted numerous times already, but must be said again until it *sticks*.

The TROPICAL models (BAMM, BAMD, BAMS,etc.) are useful only for exactly just that... *TROPICAL* climates. These model runs are based on tropical variables and do NOT account for subtropical and mid-latitude patterns. They could trend west/east/north/south, but they are NOT going to be useful when a tropical storm/hurricane is this far north. It is interesting to see their output and solution, but just for fun. If the tropical models have had less track errors thus far, it has only been just because of coincidences and nothing dynamical.

Look at the GLOBAL models when a storm is north of 20N...

[Ivanhater]

talk about a spread in the models

[superfly]

I'm kinda liking the extrapolated myself lolol

[skufful]

00:00z Models.

veeeeeery interesting

Is Irene moving this much to the north at this time?

[storms in NC]

Looking better on WV.

Also looking like offshore recurve.


What would make it move west under that weak horizontal trough?

Yes she is looking good. But I really don't see her going out to sea. But What do I know?

[shaggy]

hyperstorm why should we trust the globals when the NHC says they are weakening the ridge for no good reason other than they have irene becoming equally as strong?That makes NO sense and makes me doubt some of the globals.I do not just lookat the models but what the PRO's interpret them to say and mean


and when the NHC says

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF
THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS
ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY
THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR
BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG
70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN
THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA.

to me that statement means that the globals are suspect right now thats all

[BUD]

Is the NHC going to change its track at 11 with model changes??????

[deltadog03]

dwg what are you basing your prediction on and why?Give us something solid to back up your CLAIM please so we may understand why you think this???

NHC track does not have it making landfall, most models have been trending right. I will eat crow if I must, but I dont see this making to the US.

Trending west again as of 00Z

This has been posted numerous times already, but must be said again until it *sticks*.

The TROPICAL models (BAMM, BAMD, BAMS,etc.) are useful only for exactly just that... *TROPICAL* climates. These model runs are based on tropical variables and do NOT account for subtropical and mid-latitude patterns. They could trend west/east/north/south, but they are NOT going to be useful when a tropical storm/hurricane is this far north. It is interesting to see their output and solution, but just for fun. If the tropical models have had less track errors thus far, it has only been just because of coincidences and nothing dynamical.

Look at the GLOBAL models when a storm is north of 20N...

Thats NOT true what so EVER!!!!!! they due just as well as the next... do you know what they stand for??

[wxman57]

This is a much better models link on Colorado State's web site. Note that all of the dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Of course, that's not a guarantee it'll miss the Outer Banks.

Here's the link to the model page, and the latest image is below. My money is on a St. Louis strike, as projected by simple extrapolation at 15 kts forward speed.

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[deltadog03]

Is the NHC going to change its track at 11 with model changes??????

I believe so...specially cuz of the GFDL

[cinlfla]

Well now that model map is just as screwy as the other ones I have been looking at, some are out to sea some are bending back west some are straight forward to the carolinas how confusing is this?

[baygirl_1]

I spent most of today getting everybody (including me) ready for school to start, so I've been playing catch-up this evening. Y'all have been a very posty bunch today! I may have missed this in my catch-up reading-- but is recon scheduled to go out there anytime soon? After seeing that microwave shot from ALHurricane (thanks very much for sharing that, too!), it seems that's just the kind of data that is needed, now.

[Steve H.]

BUt the GDFL is a fairly decent model and if you check the 18Z it moves it west then a tad SW, to near the SC coast. And no she will not blow through the ridge, the center is on the SW side of the convection.

[Ivanhater]

dt is now on radionhc saying "i dont care how many models show it busting through the ridge, it WILL NOT recurve out to sea"

[wxman57]

This has been posted numerous times already, but must be said again until it *sticks*.

The TROPICAL models (BAMM, BAMD, BAMS,etc.) are useful only for exactly just that... *TROPICAL* climates. These model runs are based on tropical variables and do NOT account for subtropical and mid-latitude patterns. They could trend west/east/north/south, but they are NOT going to be useful when a tropical storm/hurricane is this far north. It is interesting to see their output and solution, but just for fun. If the tropical models have had less track errors thus far, it has only been just because of coincidences and nothing dynamical.

Look at the GLOBAL models when a storm is north of 20N...

Thats NOT true what so EVER!!!!!! they due just as well as the next... do you know what they stand for??

Actually, what Hyperstorm says is true. The BAM models (Beta and Advection Models) are very simple trajectory models. They do best in an atmosphere that isn't changing (i.e., isn't affected by moving trofs/ridges). They're useful as a "first guess" for tropical waves in the deep tropics (south of 20N), but not for much else.

Here's a link to some model descriptions:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

[johngaltfla]

I agree wxman57. That model page is much better than WUx's map. CSU is really getting it done with this graphic.

Since you're a pro, I'll ask:

Should we rely on these models now or just wait until we get some recon data fed into the computers then pay more attention? I don't see how we can do much more than speculate now, but the pro's input is what I listen for (and to).

[wxman57]

Well now that model map is just as screwy as the other ones I have been looking at, some are out to sea some are bending back west some are straight forward to the carolinas how confusing is this?

It actually tells you a lot. All dynamic models take Irene out to sea. Not one moves it inland into NC. There's a fairly tight consensus, though a couple of them are a bit screwy. The ones that begin with "GF" are versions of the GFDL The GFNI is the US Navy version.