2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[hurricaneCW]

Every indicator I've seen shows an explosion of intense storms 2nd half of August and early indicators show that a lot of these storms will connect with land.

East coast is a huge target this year, very strong SE Canada and northern new England high pressures could mean far less systems harmlessly move OTS.

[NDG]

July as a whole, all pointing to a busy peak of the season and continuing landfall threats to the US, if the sypnotic set up holds.

UL wind vectors are anomalously conducive for development all across the MDR, interesting that in the NW Bahamas they were not, the same area where Isaias ran into shear.
The first 20 days of July was very dry in the central MDR because of the record breaking SAL outbreak but the last 10 days it started moistening up.

[EquusStorm]

As a reminder of how fast things can potentially change...

Here is the shear map for August 15, 2017

Here is a huge SAL outbreak on August 19, 2017

Two weeks before the costliest and biggest ACE-producing month in Atlantic history began

[chaser1]

All I ask is that this present pain-in-the-a%% storm with way too many vowels just go away If this season is nearly as busy as we anticipate, then I'm hoping for a weeks lull just to get caught up with sleep missed from the hurricane that couldn't topple a plastic lawn chair in Florida just miles west of center. It appears poised to have a significantly greater affect on the Carolina's and the Northeast. Still, Isaiasaiiasiisai was minor league. Now that we're firmly into August it'll soon be major league time. On an entirely separate note, has anyone heard anything about ShellMound? Just asking because he is a very frequent poster here and seems to have suddenly disappeared in a puff of smoke??

[StruThiO]

Remember when the Euro was showing super high pressures over the Atlantic, as it usually does?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1290103445530148864

This is an incredible signal for an extremely active hurricane season beginning in a few weeks. Yikes.

[Steve]

All I ask is that this present pain-in-the-a%% storm with way too many vowels just go away If this season is nearly as busy as we anticipate, then I'm hoping for a weeks lull just to get caught up with sleep missed from the hurricane that couldn't topple a plastic lawn chair in Florida just miles west of center. It appears poised to have a significantly greater affect on the Carolina's and the Northeast. Still, Isaiasaiiasiisai was minor league. Now that we're firmly into August it'll soon be major league time. On an entirely separate note, has anyone heard anything about ShellMound? Just asking because he is a very frequent poster here and seems to have suddenly disappeared in a puff of smoke??

Shell must have bailed on and deleted his account. System says: The requested user does not exist. That's too bad. Shell was a very entertaining poster though maybe the kitchen got a little hot. I don't know. I always liked his/her posts regardless of whether or not I agreed with them. Fair travels Shell!

NCEP has the MJO moving through 4-5-6-7 through about August 17th. Mouse over the other model names for the outputs to show on the graph.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

They're never ever fully right, but they're usually somewhat on track. The RMM1 RMM2 forecasts through August 17th is through those phases. These are generally the least western Atlantic friendly phases there are when MJO signaling is as important of a component to genesis as it is this year. Don't expect that much to come out of the next couple weeks. Interestingly, GFS ends its run with another (!) EPAC system which are often precursors to Gulf/Atlantic development. Today's the 3rd. And while we could conceivably get a couple of spinups between now and the 17-20th, I wouldn't bet on anything all that serious. That's a little bit of a break for now after Isaias moves in.

[chaser1]

All I ask is that this present pain-in-the-a%% storm with way too many vowels just go away If this season is nearly as busy as we anticipate, then I'm hoping for a weeks lull just to get caught up with sleep missed from the hurricane that couldn't topple a plastic lawn chair in Florida just miles west of center. It appears poised to have a significantly greater affect on the Carolina's and the Northeast. Still, Isaiasaiiasiisai was minor league. Now that we're firmly into August it'll soon be major league time. On an entirely separate note, has anyone heard anything about ShellMound? Just asking because he is a very frequent poster here and seems to have suddenly disappeared in a puff of smoke??

Shell must have bailed on and deleted his account. System says: The requested user does not exist. That's too bad. Shell was a very entertaining poster though maybe the kitchen got a little hot. I don't know. I always liked his/her posts regardless of whether or not I agreed with them. Fair travels Shell!

NCEP has the MJO moving through 4-5-6-7 through about August 17th. Mouse over the other model names for the outputs to show on the graph.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

They're never ever fully right, but they're usually somewhat on track. The RMM1 RMM2 forecasts through August 17th is through those phases. These are generally the least western Atlantic friendly phases there are when MJO signaling is as important of a component to genesis as it is this year. Don't expect that much to come out of the next couple weeks. Interestingly, GFS ends its run with another (!) EPAC system which are often precursors to Gulf/Atlantic development. Today's the 3rd. And while we could conceivably get a couple of spinups between now and the 17-20th, I wouldn't bet on anything all that serious. That's a little bit of a break for now after Isaias moves in.

Sweet, it's vacation time until zones 8/1 (we hope).

I had similar sentiments on Shell. Definitely brought some good points to the table, though he did tend to swing from one extreme to another on occassion. Honestly though, I started to think that was almost intentionally provocative just to spur conversation. Oh well....

[toad strangler]

All I ask is that this present pain-in-the-a%% storm with way too many vowels just go away If this season is nearly as busy as we anticipate, then I'm hoping for a weeks lull just to get caught up with sleep missed from the hurricane that couldn't topple a plastic lawn chair in Florida just miles west of center. It appears poised to have a significantly greater affect on the Carolina's and the Northeast. Still, Isaiasaiiasiisai was minor league. Now that we're firmly into August it'll soon be major league time. On an entirely separate note, has anyone heard anything about ShellMound? Just asking because he is a very frequent poster here and seems to have suddenly disappeared in a puff of smoke??

Shell must have bailed on and deleted his account. System says: The requested user does not exist. That's too bad. Shell was a very entertaining poster though maybe the kitchen got a little hot. I don't know. I always liked his/her posts regardless of whether or not I agreed with them. Fair travels Shell!

NCEP has the MJO moving through 4-5-6-7 through about August 17th. Mouse over the other model names for the outputs to show on the graph.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

They're never ever fully right, but they're usually somewhat on track. The RMM1 RMM2 forecasts through August 17th is through those phases. These are generally the least western Atlantic friendly phases there are when MJO signaling is as important of a component to genesis as it is this year. Don't expect that much to come out of the next couple weeks. Interestingly, GFS ends its run with another (!) EPAC system which are often precursors to Gulf/Atlantic development. Today's the 3rd. And while we could conceivably get a couple of spinups between now and the 17-20th, I wouldn't bet on anything all that serious. That's a little bit of a break for now after Isaias moves in.

Sweet, it's vacation time until zones 8/1 (we hope).

I had similar sentiments on Shell. Definitely brought some good points to the table, though he did tend to swing from one extreme to another on occassion. Honestly though, I started to think that was almost intentionally provocative just to spur conversation. Oh well....

Shellmound hopped over the fence and back over and over again like he was a human frog. Definitely a sharp dude but to me he micro analyzed everything into a pulp. I'm convinced he wasn't trolling and had honest reasons in his mind to post his thoughts but would then see a contradicting item somewhere that caught his eye and it would completely sway his thought process. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's a shame he left as he had real passion, which was quite unharnessed to the point that he was a contradiction machine.

Meanwhile, Andy humping his Kelvin Waves.

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1290399245506420737

[Steve]

Yeah word chaser. I think we''ll be okay, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a low latitude spin up or even maybe a low SE of where Isaias moved in. Several models have been hinting since Friday, but some of the recent ones kind of favor a N-S boundary/tail left back behind Isaias between the coast and the Atlantic high. Anything spinning up wouldn't likely amount to much. I think we saw that with Isaias as well. Enjoy the hopefully-relatively quiet couple weeks ahead. Maybe we get a slow ramp up after or maybe we get a blast all at once that keeps on coming.

It's cool how this year appears to be MJO telegraphed. We'll see if it continues to predict most of what happens.

[NDG]

Shell must have bailed on and deleted his account. System says: The requested user does not exist. That's too bad. Shell was a very entertaining poster though maybe the kitchen got a little hot. I don't know. I always liked his/her posts regardless of whether or not I agreed with them. Fair travels Shell!

NCEP has the MJO moving through 4-5-6-7 through about August 17th. Mouse over the other model names for the outputs to show on the graph.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

They're never ever fully right, but they're usually somewhat on track. The RMM1 RMM2 forecasts through August 17th is through those phases. These are generally the least western Atlantic friendly phases there are when MJO signaling is as important of a component to genesis as it is this year. Don't expect that much to come out of the next couple weeks. Interestingly, GFS ends its run with another (!) EPAC system which are often precursors to Gulf/Atlantic development. Today's the 3rd. And while we could conceivably get a couple of spinups between now and the 17-20th, I wouldn't bet on anything all that serious. That's a little bit of a break for now after Isaias moves in.

Sweet, it's vacation time until zones 8/1 (we hope).

I had similar sentiments on Shell. Definitely brought some good points to the table, though he did tend to swing from one extreme to another on occassion. Honestly though, I started to think that was almost intentionally provocative just to spur conversation. Oh well....

Shellmound hopped over the fence and back over and over again like he was a human frog. Definitely a sharp dude but to me he micro analyzed everything into a pulp. I'm convinced he wasn't trolling and had honest reasons in his mind to post his thoughts but would then see a contradicting item somewhere that caught his eye and it would completely sway his thought process. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's a shame he left as he had real passion, which was quite unharnessed to the point that he was a contradiction machine.

Meanwhile, Andy humping his Kelvin Waves.

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1290399245506420737?s=20

Shell was definitely an interesting poster, would go into every detail but a lot of contradictions from his previous posts.

[HurricaneEdouard]

Sure, we might see a lot of storms. But I don't think they'll be terribly strong. We may see 20 more 45 mph tropical storms moving north in the middle of the Atlantic. I don't call that activity.

I'll quote this and we can revisit when the seasons is done.

Sure. Just my prediction and what I have been hearing from some pro mets I know. We may very well see some majors, I just think that the % of storms turning into hurricanes will be lower this year.

Lower than what? Sounds a little like hedging your bets, to me. The percentage of tropical storms strengthening into hurricanes in 1933 (20/11/6) was 55%, majors 30%. Percentage for 2005 (28/15/7) was 54%, majors 25%. Percentage for 1995 (19/11/5) was 58%, majors 26%. Percentage for 2010 (19/12/5) was 63%, majors 26%. Percentage for 2011 (19/7/4) was 37%, majors 21%. Percentage for 2012 (19/10/2) was 53%, majors 11%. Percentage for 1969 (18/12/5) was 67%, majors 28%. Percentage for 2017 (17/10/6) was 59%, majors 35%.

What percentage of named storms do you expect to turn into hurricanes and major hurricanes, and how strong do you think the strongest hurricane will be? I assume you're predicting percentages less than 10%, given that you're predicting 20 more tropical storm fish-spinners?

[chaser1]

Yep, I'm on the same page with you guys. Toad Strangler pretty much nailed it. I swear, for a while I began to think he was some BOT program that would just throw out opposing diatribes just to promote convo LMAO. He'd switch up his stance more often then I'd change underwear lol!

[chaser1]

It's cool how this year appears to be MJO telegraphed. We'll see if it continues to predict most of what happens.

You know what's funny Steve, that statement is SO true. When I think about it most past slow to average seasons had us look to the MJO big-time just to pull the Atlantic basin off the mat lol. If we were lucky, we'd get that "quick shot" of increased instability but I recall it being pretty fleeting maybe lasting a couple weeks or so? This year though, it's not just an enhanced MJO, but it seems to nearly vacation in zones 1 & 8. In an already active season, that just seems like pouring AV-Gas on top of a blazing fire. Hmmm, what's the record for most simultaneous named storms occuring on the same day within the Atlantic?? I wanna say 4 but I'm not sure. If correct, that would be quite a feat to repeat.

[Steve]

It's cool how this year appears to be MJO telegraphed. We'll see if it continues to predict most of what happens.

You know what's funny Steve, that statement is SO true. When I think about it most past slow to average seasons had us look to the MJO big-time just to pull the Atlantic basin off the mat lol. If we were lucky, we'd get that "quick shot" of increased instability but I recall it being pretty fleeting maybe lasting a couple weeks or so? This year though, it's not just an enhanced MJO, but it seems to nearly vacation in zones 1 & 8. In an already active season, that just seems like pouring AV-Gas on top of a blazing fire. Hmmm, what's the record for most simultaneous named storms occuring on the same day within the Atlantic?? I wanna say 4 but I'm not sure. If correct, that would be quite a feat to repeat.

Was that like 96? I remember one year there were like 6 or 7 straight Cape Verde systems where there were multiple ones at any given time. Recurves though. And yeah. It’s the dominant signal for 2020. 2020’s still coming. The gag gift that keeps on giving.

[Hammy]

It's cool how this year appears to be MJO telegraphed. We'll see if it continues to predict most of what happens.

You know what's funny Steve, that statement is SO true. When I think about it most past slow to average seasons had us look to the MJO big-time just to pull the Atlantic basin off the mat lol. If we were lucky, we'd get that "quick shot" of increased instability but I recall it being pretty fleeting maybe lasting a couple weeks or so? This year though, it's not just an enhanced MJO, but it seems to nearly vacation in zones 1 & 8. In an already active season, that just seems like pouring AV-Gas on top of a blazing fire. Hmmm, what's the record for most simultaneous named storms occuring on the same day within the Atlantic?? I wanna say 4 but I'm not sure. If correct, that would be quite a feat to repeat.

Was that like 96? I remember one year there were like 6 or 7 straight Cape Verde systems where there were multiple ones at any given time. Recurves though. And yeah. It’s the dominant signal for 2020. 2020’s still coming. The gag gift that keeps on giving.

1995 and 1996 both, moreso the former. We had consecutive waves produce Iris, the one behind that Humbero, behind that Karen, and behind that Luis (as well as Jerry off of Florida)--all in about six days.

[CyclonicFury]

With 94L becoming less likely to develop and no imminent systems on the horizon to watch for development, it appears likely we are headed for a 1-2 week lull in Atlantic activity. This is not a surprise, even 2005 had a lull during this time period. Around the third week of August, a strong CCKW is expected to reach the Atlantic (which may spawn an EPAC system first that the models already seem to be latching on to). This CCKW could start the true peak period, and I think by the end of this month we'll likely have our first major hurricane.

[HurricaneEdouard]

You know what's funny Steve, that statement is SO true. When I think about it most past slow to average seasons had us look to the MJO big-time just to pull the Atlantic basin off the mat lol. If we were lucky, we'd get that "quick shot" of increased instability but I recall it being pretty fleeting maybe lasting a couple weeks or so? This year though, it's not just an enhanced MJO, but it seems to nearly vacation in zones 1 & 8. In an already active season, that just seems like pouring AV-Gas on top of a blazing fire. Hmmm, what's the record for most simultaneous named storms occuring on the same day within the Atlantic?? I wanna say 4 but I'm not sure. If correct, that would be quite a feat to repeat.

Was that like 96? I remember one year there were like 6 or 7 straight Cape Verde systems where there were multiple ones at any given time. Recurves though. And yeah. It’s the dominant signal for 2020. 2020’s still coming. The gag gift that keeps on giving.

1995 and 1996 both, moreso the former. We had consecutive waves produce Iris, the one behind that Humbero, behind that Karen, and behind that Luis (as well as Jerry off of Florida)--all in about six days.

1998, too. Four hurricanes simultaneously, the first time that happened in the Atlantic basin since 1893, including three Cape Verde hurricanes.

[captainbarbossa19]

I posted this list last year, and I think it's time to do so again because the cycle has started again.

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

I re-posted this timeline back in June. Look where we are now--between August 1st and the 15th. So far, we've definitely had the weak TCs and the complainers/doubters following behind. We've also had the SAL and dry air. Isn't S2K great? Let's see if this year continues to follow along with the timeline.

[Hammy]

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

Kind of funny the exact opposite is happening this year--record number of storms, two hurricane landfalls from AEWs, yet models have shown and continue to show nothing all the while

With 94L becoming less likely to develop and no imminent systems on the horizon to watch for development, it appears likely we are headed for a 1-2 week lull in Atlantic activity. This is not a surprise, even 2005 had a lull during this time period. Around the third week of August, a strong CCKW is expected to reach the Atlantic (which may spawn an EPAC system first that the models already seem to be latching on to). This CCKW could start the true peak period, and I think by the end of this month we'll likely have our first major hurricane.

On an interesting note, back to back years 1996-99 had nothing tracked between August 3-18 in all four years, looking back at that period. And this year so far has felt like a more active version of 1996, with storms similar to Arthur and Bertha along with a few non-developing systems I remember having equivalent storms form this year.

[EquusStorm]

At least the first two thirds of August has been weirdly feast ('04/11/12) or famine ('10/18/19) a lot lately. Seems like if we get a break at all before the season starts winding down it'll definitely be the next few weeks. Don't let that lull anyone into complacency of course because we've seen some nearly dead Augusts before some really nasty Septembers.