2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

18Z GFS had another major hurricane forming in the Caribbean and striking the Florida Gulf Coast, behind the potential one we've all been watching for days.

And again the 0z GFS has another perhaps MH right up the spine of Fl about 10 days after.
Crazy! I bet it will change though.

Canadian has a signal at 240 hours in the SW Caribbean same as it did with the current AOI, so there might be something to this. Maybe not GFS track/intensity, but certainly a real signal and not a model storm

[Powellrm]

The next day or so will be very critical moving forward. Will be closely monitoring. I meant to post this yesterday, but even when runs had this (potential) storm as a large and disorganized mess-I would not be surprised if it found a way to quickly organize somewhat and intensify more than expected. Not into anything high end, but more than expected. It seems like so often these systems surpass expectations and can maximize favorable ocean temps in spite of relative adversity. Despite certain conditions that would generally not be viewed as favorable for organization or intensifying.

It does appear to be a relatively fast mover which is at least a good thing. Does not seem to be a candidate to stall or lose steering upon landfall. But as of now, that is irrelevant as we don’t have anything concrete other than the data at hand. This could all be different by midday Monday.

Stay tuned and get prepped early.

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS seems interested in yet another Cape Verde system after the current MDR orange AOI.

Based on some previous ensemble runs (tbd for the 12z cycle), some members have this system going pretty far west and affecting the islands instead of cleanly recurving out to sea (as is the case for the current MDR AOI).

[cajungal]

Is that system GFS was showing getting in gulf after this current system still showing up or did they drop it?

[WeatherBoy2000]

Is that system GFS was showing getting in gulf after this current system still showing up or did they drop it?

Yes but it shows it developing in the BOC instead.

With that said the GFS is nuts for late September into October showing 4-5 TC's developing including 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. Not saying any of this going happen but it all hints towards the Atlantic becoming more favorable than it has been recently.

[cajungal]

I was afraid of that

[SFLcane]

This is some signal the GEFS is showing...

[cajungal]

This is some signal the GEFS is showing...

https://i.postimg.cc/nzThFFVB/vvvv.png

So yet another potential gulf storm?

[otowntiger]

This is some signal the GEFS is showing...

https://i.postimg.cc/nzThFFVB/vvvv.png

The big question is which way are those heading? For that time of year it would make sense if they were moving north or even northeast, right?

[Hammy]

Looks like all three main models now have the signal for another CAG event in the Caribbean in around 7-10 days

[cycloneye]

18Z GFS has a monster at long range.

[cheezyWXguy]

Sheesh, what is with the 18z gfs? First a Michael imitator, then a Maria imitator in the long range

[Teban54]

Sheesh, what is with the 18z gfs? First a Michael imitator, then a Maria imitator in the long range

The time of the year (early October) would perhaps make it even more reminiscent of the Great 1780 Hurricane than Maria. This model storm peaks at 923 mb just past the islands, and as a bonus, it also hits Bermuda while barely weakened at all

(Edit: Even better, the end of the run looks like it could still pull a Fiona.)

Also, if the 18z run plays out verbatim, Isaac must be seriously cursed. The name would be sandwiched between two highly destructive storms, yet somehow escape retirement despite being an I name.

[MarioProtVI]

The 12z and 18z GFS are probably the best ways 2024 would be able to bounce back strong - 18z alone probably nets about ~75-80 ACE combined from 97L, the 0/60 and the second wave models are starting to like that the GFS blows up into a Sam repeat. Were that to verify 2024 would be at about 135-140 ACE by around October 10, with still the rest of the month to go. It’s possible that low-end hyperactive status is back on the table, but only if everything lines up perfectly. 2022 almost had a shot but it was a bit lackluster in the end despite making a notable comeback.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sheesh, what is with the 18z gfs? First a Michael imitator, then a Maria imitator in the long range

The time of the year (early October) would perhaps make it even more reminiscent of the Great 1780 Hurricane than Maria. This model storm peaks at 923 mb just past the islands, and as a bonus, it also hits Bermuda while barely weakened at all

(Edit: Even better, the end of the run looks like it could still pull a Fiona.)

Also, if the 18z run plays out verbatim, Isaac must be seriously cursed. The name would be sandwiched between two highly destructive storms, yet somehow escape retirement despite being an I name.

https://i.postimg.cc/KvrBTZZc/image.png

Would continue the season's theme of the female storms being the destructive storms....

[Teban54]

0z CMC now shows the second Caribbean storm in early October. I assume it's the same one that GFS has shown on and off recently.

[Hurricane Mike]

It does seem fascinating that the models are showing so much Cape Verde activity now, after the peak of the wave season.

[Hammy]

GFS pushing back development of the first system by 24 hours on one run, not a good sign for development chances.

[aspen]

6z GFS ends with dual Cat 3s and another MDR TS. Not gonna happen, but after the models were so anemic for the majority of the season, it’s quite a change of pace to see the GFS continuously spitting out TCs run after run.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS drops all future development outside of the 20/70 becoming a short lived TS