Weak El Nino is what the majority of them have for the peak of the North Atlantic Hurricane Season at August,September and October. As they say in last paragraph,caution is needed on longer range forecasts by them.
http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2
17 May 2012
Expected Conditions
What is the outlook for the ENSO status going forward? The official diagnosis and outlook was issued earlier this month in the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, produced jointly by CPC and IRI. It stated that the earlier La Niña conditions had transitioned to neutral conditions, and that the neutral conditions are expected to persist at least through northern summer. Now, in the middle of May, a new set of model ENSO predictions is available as shown in the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, discussed below. The current east-central tropical Pacific SSTs are now in ENSO-neutral territory, and in fact are very close to the exact climatological average. Subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific have now risen to become mildly to moderately above average in the upper part of the ocean from the date line eastward to 100W. The thermocline depth along the equator is now above average across most of the tropical Pacific, an exception being a stretch of longitude near and just east of the dateline where the thermocline is just slightly shallower than average as a weak remnant of the dissipated La Niña.
As of mid-May, nearly all of the dynamical and statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions for the May-Jul season. All models then indicate warming from their starting anomaly values (for May-Jul) onward, although one or two show this only negligibly. For the May-Jul season, 92% of models indicate neutral ENSO conditions, while 8% (i.e., one dynamical model) indicate quick development of El Niño conditions. By late northern summer/autumn in Aug-Oct, 42% indicate neutral conditions and 58% predict El Niño conditions. At lead times of 3 or more months into the future, statistical and dynamical models that incorporate information about the ocean's observed subsurface thermal structure generally exhibit higher predictive skill than those that do not. For the Aug-Oct season, among models that do use subsurface temperature information, 35% predict ENSO-neutral SSTs, and 65% predict El Niño conditions. For all models, the preference for El Niño conditions maximizes for the Sep-Nov season (at 58%), and declines to below 50% for Dec-Feb 2012-13 and later. (Note 1).
Caution is advised in interpreting the distribution of model predictions as the actual probabilities. At longer leads, the skill of the models degrades, and skill uncertainty must be convolved with the uncertainties from initial conditions and differing model physics, leading to more climatological probabilities in the long-lead ENSO Outlook than might be suggested by the suite of models. Furthermore, the expected skill of one model versus another has not been established using uniform validation procedures, which may cause a difference in the true probability distribution from that taken verbatim from the raw model predictions.
I am thinking that it should stay positive over the next 3-5 days as pressures in Tahiti stay high and pressures in Darwin lower a little bit at the same time.
. As consistent against what the models showed, the MJO has remained incoherent and remained sparse. There hasn't really been a true kelvin wave since late March. All it has done is put up weak convection in different areas. 
