2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[gatorcane]

While no Western Caribbean cyclone this run again, the GFS goes bonkers with the cold front for the weekend of the 23-24 with much below normal temps invading the SE US.

[Category5Kaiju]

There are a handful of GEFS ensembles that still foresee a NE tracking storm around the 20-22nd from the WCAR, so imho I still think it's way too early to write this particular disturbance off as a ghost. As for ridging, if anything I would have to think that based on the pattern this year that troughiness has been more pronounced, which could lead to the idea that having waves forced to the south and unable to develop in the Atlantic may not really occur

[SFLcane]

Not much to see here. bababais….

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1448687278684098560

[Spacecoast]

"The ECMWF ensemble is pretty anemic at Atlantic TC development during the next two
weeks, while the GFS ensemble is highlighting potential TC development in the
Caribbean in 10-14 days. "

[aspen]

"The ECMWF ensemble is pretty anemic at Atlantic TC development during the next two
weeks, while the GFS ensemble is highlighting potential TC development in the
Caribbean in 10-14 days. "

[url]https://i.ibb.co/GVfd64Y/frcstb.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/1LXKkYz/frcstc.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/mhxzh26/frcstd.jpg [/url]

Really? They highlighted the long-range EPac “storm”? That’s the most obvious bias-based phantom you could possibly see. I will be shocked if development happens on the EPac side of Central America instead of the Atlantic side — it would be highly anomalous for a La Niña.

The only place on the entire planet that the GFS shows a bona-fide TC is the EPac. Yeah right lol. Pamela totally showed how the EPac can easily pump out strong storms in October during a La Niña.

[Blown Away]

12z GEFS

[floridasun]

i dont think oct will be busy as last oct but i do see one more or two more before we can see season over like models showing two more likely that could be end to 2021 season

[aspen]

The WCar system from the easternmost tropical wave returns on the 18z GFS. Once again, the precursor wave is trackable and reaches the Lesser Antilles on the 22nd/23rd, but it’s still at a low latitude and doesn’t develop until several days later.

[Nimbus]

i dont think oct will be busy as last oct but i do see one more or two more before we can see season over like models showing two more likely that could be end to 2021 season

When it rains it pours, but I wonder sometimes how far out those butterfly chaos theory models can predict.
Only two weeks till November.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like the most recent GEFS ensemble members really like that MDR wave around the end of this month over the homegrown system in the WCAR next week, there's a much more powerful signal for that MDR system

[Ubuntwo]

The WCar system from the easternmost tropical wave returns on the 18z GFS. Once again, the precursor wave is trackable and reaches the Lesser Antilles on the 22nd/23rd, but it’s still at a low latitude and doesn’t develop until several days later.

Said wave is now in the TWD:

A tropical wave has been introduced to the analysis. The wave's
axis extends along 23W from 02N-18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered showers are noted S of 14N between 20W-24W.

[zzh]

12z EPS

[aspen]

00z EPS is a little more active, but the wave remains very far south and cannot develop. Who knows if this is a case of the Euro over-doing the ridge or not; the wave won’t be near South America and the Windward Islands for another 7-8 days.

The 00z GFS once again shows no Atlantic development but has a TC close to CA on the EPac side — in other words, garbage bias run.

[SFLcane]

Ouch but looking at this it’s over for conus and Florida nothing is coming north. Something could still form and stay in the Caribbean.

See ya June 2022.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ouch but looking at this it’s over for conus and Florida nothing is coming north. Something could still form and stay in the Caribbean.

See ya June 2022.

https://i.postimg.cc/QM7RMdtL/5926553-A-9371-48-EA-B67-A-441-C416-C0-E55.jpg

You seem quite confident that that one particular GEFS run tells what’s to certainly happen in the future

[SFLcane]

Ouch but looking at this it’s over for conus and Florida nothing is coming north. Something could still form and stay in the Caribbean.

See ya June 2022.

https://i.postimg.cc/QM7RMdtL/5926553-A-9371-48-EA-B67-A-441-C416-C0-E55.jpg

You seem quite confident that that one particular GEFS run tells what’s to certainly happen in the future

95% confident. Climo says chances fall off a cliff in about 10 days And not seeing anything that would contradict that.

[SFLcane]

I mean I wouldn't totally rule out something like an Eta/Mitch scenario Where something hits Central America then the slop comes NE towards FL. The chances of a Wilma or even an Irene are going out the door soon.

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean I wouldn't totally rule out something like an Eta/Mitch scenario Where something hits Central America then the slop comes NE towards FL. The chances of a Wilma or even an Irene are going out the door soon.

Eh, yeah perhaps, I can see where you are thinking. Florida got lucky again this year, but not Louisiana or the Northeast unfortunately. Ida will certainly be remembered from this season.

[SFLcane]

I wouldn't have expected a -ENSO October to be this quiet. Combo of the MJO in the WPAC being slower than expected (just like July). Plus to add a crappy synoptic pattern with a giant trough through the Caribbean Which is tough to predict.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm getting some flashbacks to August of 2019, when no NSs were forming during the first part of the month and had many wondering if we would escape August NS-free, until after the month's end. Not saying I think October 2021 will play out like August 2019, but something to keep in mind that in the tropics and modeling at least, 2 weeks is a long time and things can certainly change or become clearer during then.