2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

The standing wave is definitely different than the last 4-5 seasons. So we shouldn't expect the same players for better or for worse. MC-> WPAC standing wave is moody for the Atlantic, MC being good for deep tropics later on but as it shifts slightly east, it can take away from Africa.

I think it's a combination of the very strong background Niña forcing combined with the -IOD. 2020 had a +IOD combined with a developing Niña which essentially supercharged the WAM (albeit for the worse if anything because it resulted in a messy MDR at times filled with sloppy monsoon troughs, very large TWs and waves crashing into each other because trades were next to nonexistent). Last year I believe the IOD was more neutral-ish so the effect was lesser to an extent - I think the Atlantic Niño might have played more of a role in that regard.

If you compare this year to the composite of June/July for recent La Niña years with -IOD you'll see that this year isn't too dissimilar, with the bulk of the rising cell over the SE IO/MC. In other words I feel we are seeing something closer to what you'd expect for a typical Niña, as -ENSO is usually paired with -IOD which causes that ascent in that region.
https://i.ibb.co/ggWZ48G/jgdjj-U6f1x.png
https://i.ibb.co/7vH6SLX/compday-RUUvi-G4b83.gif

I ran some similar narr and along with your graphics there are subtle differences in the Pacific west to east, not a totally exact match. It's a huge basin so even a 50/50 difference is significant, imo. If the the rising motion has to split between MC and WPAC it'll be a lot of back and forth between favorable vs unfavorable.

Yea this is great discussion. Come ASO, we will find out how much the IOD forced eastern standing wave affects the season. As Cat5 said there is definitely a possibility that we get more compact waves rather than large monsoon troughs which could aid TCG.

[weeniepatrol]

Quite frankly I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take anything he says seriously ever again

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1551955176814256128

[captainbarbossa19]

Quite frankly I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take anything he says seriously ever again

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1551955176814256128

It's so hard to tell sarcasm online, but I'm not sure this really is that. This feels like 2017 2.0 to me where so many experts canceled the season before it started to peak. Again, why all are so many calls being made before the game is over?

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Quite frankly I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take anything he says seriously ever again

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1551955176814256128

Ventrice is very knowledgeable and provides numerous valuable resources, but at the same time I do feel he has a tendency to jump the gun sometimes. Given 2013's meme status among the online wx community I'm obliged to believe he could just be guffing but meh.

[weeniepatrol]

Quite frankly I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take anything he says seriously ever again

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1551955176814256128

Ventrice is very knowledgeable and provides numerous valuable resources, but at the same time I do feel he has a tendency to jump the gun sometimes. Given 2013's meme status among the online wx community I'm obliged to believe he could just be guffing but meh.

His other replies do not give that impression. This is quickly becoming more egregious than 2017

[weeniepatrol]

Don't know why it has to be repeated every single year...

[cycloneye]

Quite frankly I'm not sure how I'm supposed to take anything he says seriously ever again

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1551955176814256128

Ventrice is bearish or is joking.

[Category5Kaiju]

Gotta love the comments on social media now about “hyperactivity or activity bust,” the “gov pushing climate change agenda,” and all of that stuff over, what, an inactive July? When the majority of above average seasons in the past featured very little and in some cases hardly any July activity?

You know, I feel like there are some folks who don’t really pay close attention to historical behavior and standards and just now cast, leading them to think that what we’re seeing now is indicative of what we will see later this season. I would humbly suggest that those look specifically at what happened in 2021, and 2019, and 2017, and 2004, and 1999, and 1998. Maybe they will see a different picture then. Again, it’s late July, not late August, so we still have some time left.

I also just have to wonder the rationale behind those who firmly believe that this is a 2013 repeat. The conditions in 2013 are completely different than this year, in all 3 major NH basins as a matter of fact. I can list at least 8 major differences between 2013 and 2022

[weeniepatrol]

Gotta love the comments on social media now about “hyperactivity or activity bust,” the “gov pushing climate change agenda,” and all of that stuff over, what, an inactive July? When the majority of above average seasons in the past featured very little and in some cases hardly any July activity?

This is the exact issue I have with posts like the one I linked. It just incites this nonsense and is effectively spread of misinformation. Unfortunately, this field could do better... frankly, I am shocked that 336h GEFS plots are being taken as gospel like this. Especially when you consider that NOAA is now explicitly mentioning the possibility of MDR cyclogenesis.....





Anyone who wants to join me over in reality, check out the ENSO thread. Insane upwelling Kelvin wave now underway. Trades are only going to continue to rip.

[cycloneye]

Great thread of 14/14 by Danny Morris about all of what is being discussed in this thread.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1551979201997185026

[AnnularCane]

Don't know why it has to be repeated every single year...

https://i.imgur.com/98QxyxZ.jpg

Feels like I'm staring up from the foot of a tall mountain (the Murderhorn?) that I'm about to climb.

[Blown Away]

Great thread of 14/14 by Danny Morris about all of what is being discussed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1551979201997185026

Nice summary.

Bone dry and suppressed convection in the Atlantic during June-July and then the basin moistens up and comes alive in mid August, do we really need computer models to predict this 95% of the time??

[AtlanticWind]

Ventrice and others on Social Media seem very model driven at this point.

While I believe the models are very important, I have seen little evidence that
they reliably predict TC genesis in the long range forecasts especially in the Atlantic.

At this point I would still expect a busy season based on the favorable backround state
with the timing following normal climatology.

As we get into early August we will likely see the models begin hinting at increased development
Still it is not impossible their will be some underlying factors that reduce activity during peak season
But I still think its about an 80 percent chance we see an active year. JMO

[aspen]

Great thread of 14/14 by Danny Morris about all of what is being discussed in this thread.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1551979201997185026

2011 is still the best potential analog season out of all the seasons Danny posted — cool ENSO with some warmer pockets closer to SA, cooler equatorial Atlantic, cool Canary Current, and a near to slightly warmer than average MDR. Something like 2011 with less storms — like 14-17 NS and 120-140 ACE — looks very reasonable for 2022. I think 1996 is the next best analog and the closest MDR and Canary Current SSTAs of the three ceiling seasons; I disagree that 1998 is the closest of the three.

[Emmett_Brown]

Ventrice and others on Social Media seem very model driven at this point.

While I believe the models are very important, I have seen little evidence that
they reliably predict TC genesis in the long range forecasts especially in the Atlantic.

At this point I would still expect a busy season based on the favorable backround state
with the timing following normal climatology.

As we get into early August we will likely see the models begin hinting at increased development
Still it is not impossible their will be some underlying factors that reduce activity during peak season
But I still think its about an 80 percent chance we see an active year. JMO

Great take. Models generally miss storm genesis, although they often perform better later in the year, especially at detecting baroclinic influenced genesis (formations on old frontal boundaries, etc). Aug 20 always seems to be the time when action ramps up regardless of what models say, as long as ENSO is not too hostile. These quiet weeks before activity ramps up are a time for reflection on the monsters of the past.

[captainbarbossa19]

Ventrice and others on Social Media seem very model driven at this point.

While I believe the models are very important, I have seen little evidence that
they reliably predict TC genesis in the long range forecasts especially in the Atlantic.

At this point I would still expect a busy season based on the favorable backround state
with the timing following normal climatology.

As we get into early August we will likely see the models begin hinting at increased development
Still it is not impossible their will be some underlying factors that reduce activity during peak season
But I still think its about an 80 percent chance we see an active year. JMO

You hit the nail on the head. Just about all the negative factors being discussed by experts are derived from computer models. Models have been so unreliable. When I wrote my TC timeline I made sure to include that point. Experts are a bit ahead of the curve being skeptical this year. Also it seems we have a bit of a combination currently of the below points going on right now.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

"The code is more what you'd call 'guidelines' than actual rules."
-Captain Barbossa from Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

[toad strangler]

Ventrice and others on Social Media seem very model driven at this point.

While I believe the models are very important, I have seen little evidence that
they reliably predict TC genesis in the long range forecasts especially in the Atlantic.

At this point I would still expect a busy season based on the favorable backround state
with the timing following normal climatology.

As we get into early August we will likely see the models begin hinting at increased development
Still it is not impossible their will be some underlying factors that reduce activity during peak season
But I still think its about an 80 percent chance we see an active year. JMO

How many times have we seen a empty wasteland progged for all of August even into September on the globals this time of year to ultimately find out that they are just flat out wrong? I agree, models more and more are being taken verbatim.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The strongest land falling storm in the Atlantic EVER was not seen by models until it formed. [Dorian]. When did it form? August 24th. Hurricane season cannot be predicted by models that are guessing past 240 hours. I rest my case.

[Category5Kaiju]

The strongest land falling storm in the Atlantic EVER was not seen by models until it formed. [Dorian]. When did it form? August 24th. Hurricane season cannot be predicted by models that are guessing past 240 hours. I rest my case.

Labor Day hurricane? Late August

Andrew? Late August

Harvey? Late August

Katrina? Late August

Coincidence…I think NOT!!

[skyline385]

That is some of the densest SAL plume i have seen in a while, Andy wasn’t kidding when he said that the current flow configuration is dumping half of the Saharan desert into the Atlantic.

 https://twitter.com/nhc_tafb/status/1552016527242670080