2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/921011804985348096




 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/921014760367370240

[toad strangler]

12z GFS with EPAC yet again

[Alyono]

0Z EC ensemble favored the Caribbean over the EPAC by a very large margin

[WeatherEmperor]

0Z EC ensemble favored the Caribbean over the EPAC by a very large margin

When do you believe the OP Euro will switch over to the Caribbean side?


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[toad strangler]

The season is over for the US mainland as far as the 12z GFS OP is concerned.

[toad strangler]

12z Canadian with a TS that cuts through W Cuba and brushes S FL on its way NE

[Alyono]

0Z EC ensemble favored the Caribbean over the EPAC by a very large margin

When do you believe the OP Euro will switch over to the Caribbean side?


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once we get closer to formation

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles are sending a strong signal and on the Caribbean side:

[SFLcane]

Thats a good signal across the caribbean...

[LarryWx]

^ Yep, 4 members of the 20 12Z GEFS hit FL between 10/29 and 11/2: 2 with a H and 2with a TS.

[toad strangler]

^ Yep, 4 members of the 20 12Z GEFS hit FL between 10/29 and 11/2: 2 with a H and 2with a TS.

That batting average would sit down even Aaron Judge

[blp]

I think the other models were to quick with the arrival for the favorable upward motion. I think the Euro might have the right idea in delayed development.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro OP pretty much dropped development in EPAC and nada in Caribbean either.

[Shell Mound]

I think the other models were too quick with the arrival for the favorable upward motion. I think the Euro might have the right idea in delayed development.

I agree. In fact, the 12Z operational run of the ECMWF has trended notably weaker with the eastern-Pacific vortex vs. earlier runs. Pressures over the Caribbean are much lower than previously, and for the first time the lowest environmental (background) pressures are over the Caribbean rather than the eastern Pacific. This applies to the time frame from 25 October onward. I think this marks the beginning of an anticipated trend toward the Caribbean on the operational runs. The EPS and GEFS are more critical than the operational runs, and these ensemble means lend net support to the Caribbean vs. the eastern Pacific. Once the ECMWF operation run drops the eastern-Pacific genesis, I fully expect a much more consolidated, deeper vortex to show up on the Caribbean side. There would be no competing system nearby...

12z Euro OP pretty much dropped development in EPAC and nada in Caribbean either.

I respectfully disagree with the bold portion. I think the MSLP data show a trend toward lower pressures over the Caribbean:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017101912/ecmwf_mslpa_atl_10.png

If the ECMWF were to discard and shift from eastern-Pacific to Caribbean genesis, we could easily witness a substantial storm, possibly a major hurricane. The environment looks to be quite conducive to development and intensification: upper-level anticyclonic flow, a potential TUTT over the Sargasso Sea (hence outflow channel), low vertical wind shear, abundant moisture, +VVP, positive PDO/negative NAO (West-Coast ridge, Scandinavian block), low environmental pressures, low-level convergence, climatology, and MJO-induced influence. The trough (North America)/ridge (Caribbean)/TUTT (southwestern Atlantic) pattern supports intensification of a system in between, under the mid-level ridge axis...

But yes, we are still at an early stage.

[WeatherEmperor]

Last 3 images of the 12z Euro still going with Epac development but turns the system more sharply NE towards land








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[WeatherEmperor]

12z NAVGEM much weaker and slower development in the Caribbean. Has just weak low pressure in the area at the end of the run. No longer showing TS or Hurricane like before.






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[TheStormExpert]

0Z EC ensemble favored the Caribbean over the EPAC by a very large margin

When do you believe the OP Euro will switch over to the Caribbean side?


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once we get closer to formation

What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?

[blp]

When do you believe the OP Euro will switch over to the Caribbean side?


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once we get closer to formation

What a HUGE bust this will possibly be for the GFS & Euro. When was the last time the less reliable global models outdone the two big boys?

I think what is going to bust is the less reliable models. They are too fast with development. You already see the CMC and NAVGEM backing down. This one is going to take time to develop.

[blp]

I think the other models were too quick with the arrival for the favorable upward motion. I think the Euro might have the right idea in delayed development.

I agree. In fact, the 12Z operational run of the ECMWF has trended notably weaker with the eastern-Pacific vortex vs. earlier runs. Pressures over the Caribbean are much lower than previously, and for the first time the lowest environmental (background) pressures are over the Caribbean rather than the eastern Pacific. This applies to the time frame from 25 October onward. I think this marks the beginning of an anticipated trend toward the Caribbean on the operational runs. The EPS and GEFS are more critical than the operational runs, and these ensemble means lend net support to the Caribbean vs. the eastern Pacific. Once the ECMWF operation run drops the eastern-Pacific genesis, I fully expect a much more consolidated, deeper vortex to show up on the Caribbean side. There would be no competing system nearby...

12z Euro OP pretty much dropped development in EPAC and nada in Caribbean either.

I respectfully disagree with the bold portion. I think the MSLP data show a trend toward lower pressures over the Caribbean:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017101912/ecmwf_mslpa_atl_10.png

If the ECMWF were to discard and shift from eastern-Pacific to Caribbean genesis, we could easily witness a substantial storm, possibly a major hurricane. The environment looks to be quite conducive to development and intensification: upper-level anticyclonic flow, a potential TUTT over the Sargasso Sea (hence outflow channel), low vertical wind shear, abundant moisture, +VVP, positive PDO/negative NAO (West-Coast ridge, Scandinavian block), low environmental pressures, low-level convergence, climatology, and MJO-induced influence. The trough (North America)/ridge (Caribbean)/TUTT (southwestern Atlantic) pattern supports intensification of a system in between, under the mid-level ridge axis...

But yes, we are still at an early stage.

I agree, for the first time in a while I see lower pressures on the EPS.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/921109998779994118