2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[hurricane2025]

What has wxman said about this season I respect his opinion big time I would like to know what he says

[Emmett_Brown]

What has wxman said about this season I respect his opinion big time I would like to know what he says

I agree, I would be interested to hear his seasonal outlook if he does one. His experience is an asset to this board. I do remember he was calling for a quiet July, which has definitely happened (and usually does)

[hurricane2025]

What has wxman said about this season I respect his opinion big time I would like to know what he says

I agree, I would be interested to hear his seasonal outlook if he does one. His experience is an asset to this board. I do remember he was calling for a quiet July, which has definitely happened (and usually does)

Can we tag him on here ?

[tolakram]

No, you cannot bug other members by tagging.

That SAL is the worst I've seen since last July.

[SoupBone]

What has wxman said about this season I respect his opinion big time I would like to know what he says

I agree, I would be interested to hear his seasonal outlook if he does one. His experience is an asset to this board. I do remember he was calling for a quiet July, which has definitely happened (and usually does)

He posted it in another thread, maybe you can search his posts. It had an East Coast/Florida leaning season if I recall correctly. But as he has said and we all know, it only takes one.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I actually just had an epiphany; but I wonder if the reason why it seems like people cancel the Atlantic hurricane season literally every year even before the peak arrives is due to…technology? I would have to imagine that the experience of tracking the tropics and hurricanes now is much different from the same experience in years like 2005 or years before that like in 1995 or 1988 and so forth. We have sprawling social media and YouTube and other high tech maps and graphics nowadays that allow us to scrutinize the tropics at any time of the year and at any time of the hour or day, and nowadays it also seems like more people are inter-connected and watch the tropics as a result.

However, this can also in my view be bad because every minute detail that manifests and that could be seen as unfavorable even in the summer months, like wind shear or dry air, is blown out of proportion. And I think that’s exactly what is happening; there are some folks who know better, but there are those who immediately jump to conclusions and see even a small plume of SAL in late July as indicative or a bust or models showing nothing as a bust as well even though there are plenty of nuances behind why those should never be taken at face value

[Spacecoast]

Historically, for July:


Average # Hurricanes in July = 0.54, (but trending toward 1.0 in recent years)
Last 72 years:
45 years had zero hurricanes in July
17 years had 1 hurricane in July
8 years had 2 hurricanes in July
2 years (1966 & 2005) had 3 hurricanes in July

So....

0-1 Hurricanes = Technically 'normal', there is no such thing as a 'below normal' July.
2 Hurricanes = 'active', or above average July
3 Hurricanes = 'hyperactive' July

So I actually just had an epiphany; but I wonder if the reason why it seems like people cancel the Atlantic hurricane season literally every year even before the peak arrives is due to…technology?

I think it's a metrology problem.. If the best 'tools' available are only accurate out to 240 hours for genesis, then it's only natural to speculate about the magical Aug 20 'switch', and how much the floodgates will, (or will not) open. I think most of the S2K posts reflect the experts range of between 7- 10 Hurricanes, & 3-5 majors.

IMHO, if we are expecting an 'very active' season, then at least 1 hurricane should form in next 16 days, or perhaps the season will be abnormally backloaded into late Oct (like CIC forecast implies)

[LemieT]

That SAL is the worst I've seen since last July.

I remember the "Godzilla" outbreak in 2020. The SAL was so thick for almost a week that our skies were brown and there was and "earthy" scent hanging in the air. On the two worst days a number of people reported chewing sand particles as they went about their business. Pretty sure this is the norm in the last few years.

[Hurricane Mike]

So I actually just had an epiphany; but I wonder if the reason why it seems like people cancel the Atlantic hurricane season literally every year even before the peak arrives is due to…technology? I would have to imagine that the experience of tracking the tropics and hurricanes now is much different from the same experience in years like 2005 or years before that like in 1995 or 1988 and so forth. We have sprawling social media and YouTube and other high tech maps and graphics nowadays that allow us to scrutinize the tropics at any time of the year and at any time of the hour or day, and nowadays it also seems like more people are inter-connected and watch the tropics as a result.

However, this can also in my view be bad because every minute detail that manifests and that could be seen as unfavorable even in the summer months, like wind shear or dry air, is blown out of proportion. And I think that’s exactly what is happening; there are some folks who know better, but there are those who immediately jump to conclusions and see even a small plume of SAL in late July as indicative or a bust or models showing nothing as a bust as well even though there are plenty of nuances behind why those should never be taken at face value

Absolutely.

When I was tracking back in 1998-2002 timeframe, I was in school. I often found myself watching tropical update after tropical update every day on The Weather Channel with almost no tropical formation in the Atlantic for the entire Summer break from school. When I'd go back to school in the August 20-25th timeframe, the switch would flip and the tropics would finally get active.

In fact, the "B" storm Bonnie didn't form in 1998 until mid-August, and the "B" storm Bret didn't form in 1999 until late August.

Kids these days are spoiled.

[Hammy]

So I actually just had an epiphany; but I wonder if the reason why it seems like people cancel the Atlantic hurricane season literally every year even before the peak arrives is due to…technology? I would have to imagine that the experience of tracking the tropics and hurricanes now is much different from the same experience in years like 2005 or years before that like in 1995 or 1988 and so forth. We have sprawling social media and YouTube and other high tech maps and graphics nowadays that allow us to scrutinize the tropics at any time of the year and at any time of the hour or day, and nowadays it also seems like more people are inter-connected and watch the tropics as a result.

However, this can also in my view be bad because every minute detail that manifests and that could be seen as unfavorable even in the summer months, like wind shear or dry air, is blown out of proportion. And I think that’s exactly what is happening; there are some folks who know better, but there are those who immediately jump to conclusions and see even a small plume of SAL in late July as indicative or a bust or models showing nothing as a bust as well even though there are plenty of nuances behind why those should never be taken at face value

Absolutely.

When I was tracking back in 1998-2002 timeframe, I was in school. I often found myself watching tropical update after tropical update every day on The Weather Channel with almost no tropical formation in the Atlantic for the entire Summer break from school. When I'd go back to school in the August 20-25th timeframe, the switch would flip and the tropics would finally get active.

In fact, the "B" storm Bonnie didn't form in 1998 until mid-August, and the "B" storm Bret didn't form in 1999 until late August.

Kids these days are spoiled.

You started around the same time frame as I did it sounds like

1995-99 were my opening years an with the exception of 1995 so they're good years to look at when the usual season cancel posts show up--all of those years had a quiet first two thirds of August (Granted, 1997 had nothing, but I remember an outbreak of invests at the end of the month, while Aug 1-18 looked like the other years) and even 1995, despite Felix being out there, not one storm developed from August 10-21, and suddenly we had five storms over the following week.

[toad strangler]

So I actually just had an epiphany; but I wonder if the reason why it seems like people cancel the Atlantic hurricane season literally every year even before the peak arrives is due to…technology? I would have to imagine that the experience of tracking the tropics and hurricanes now is much different from the same experience in years like 2005 or years before that like in 1995 or 1988 and so forth. We have sprawling social media and YouTube and other high tech maps and graphics nowadays that allow us to scrutinize the tropics at any time of the year and at any time of the hour or day, and nowadays it also seems like more people are inter-connected and watch the tropics as a result.

However, this can also in my view be bad because every minute detail that manifests and that could be seen as unfavorable even in the summer months, like wind shear or dry air, is blown out of proportion. And I think that’s exactly what is happening; there are some folks who know better, but there are those who immediately jump to conclusions and see even a small plume of SAL in late July as indicative or a bust or models showing nothing as a bust as well even though there are plenty of nuances behind why those should never be taken at face value

Absolutely.

When I was tracking back in 1998-2002 timeframe, I was in school. I often found myself watching tropical update after tropical update every day on The Weather Channel with almost no tropical formation in the Atlantic for the entire Summer break from school. When I'd go back to school in the August 20-25th timeframe, the switch would flip and the tropics would finally get active.

In fact, the "B" storm Bonnie didn't form in 1998 until mid-August, and the "B" storm Bret didn't form in 1999 until late August.

Kids these days are spoiled.

You started around the same time frame as I did it sounds like

1995-99 were my opening years an with the exception of 1995 so they're good years to look at when the usual season cancel posts show up--all of those years had a quiet first two thirds of August (Granted, 1997 had nothing, but I remember an outbreak of invests at the end of the month, while Aug 1-18 looked like the other years) and even 1995, despite Felix being out there, not one storm developed from August 10-21, and suddenly we had five storms over the following week.

#lightswitch
#bellringing
#climatology

Take your pick. Most years it’s real.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok, so this is interesting...looks like those Euro forecasts during the middle of this month calling for the MDR to warm up during the end of this month may have actually been onto something.





I mean, I think we can all agree here that this indeed is the MDR warming, right?

[captainbarbossa19]

Ok, so this is interesting...looks like those Euro forecasts during the middle of this month calling for the MDR to warm up during the end of this month may have actually been onto something.

https://i.imgur.com/CWaBtlu.png

https://i.imgur.com/19AE7SY.png

I mean, I think we can all agree here that this indeed is the MDR warming, right?

And why do some people think the Atlantic is going to less active because of the cold anomalies off the SW coast of Africa? It didn't seem to be a problem for this year below. Also, note the slightly cooler than average subtropics. The subtropics are cooler now, but I found this image very interesting.

[Teban54]

Randomly digged out this tweet as a reminder of climatography in ATL, EPAC and WPAC:

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1176182033661472768

[cycloneye]

Third consecutive year of having La Niña is not a common event and anything can happen. Backloaded season?

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1552269643682922496




 https://twitter.com/creator00100/status/1552274773304119296

[toad strangler]

Third consecutive year of having La Niña is not a common event and anything can happen.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1552269643682922496

Imagine we get a fourth

[aspen]

Today’s CFS run has almost nothing in August and early September. It takes until the second half of the month for the tropics to become active.

I wonder what will take longer at this rate: the WPac to produce its second major, or the Atlantic to produce its first.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Third consecutive year of having La Niña is not a common event and anything can happen.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1552269643682922496

Imagine we get a fourth

Still thinking we'll (finally) get a Niño next year but at the same time it does depend on how far this Niña dips over the fall/winter. If we reach strong territory (or linger just below the threshold) then that dampens Niño prospects a bit, but at the same time there's the -IOD which often precedes a transition to +ENSO. And then there's also the simple fact that a quadruple-dip Niña is virtually unprecedented - don't recall a period in recent history where that happened. Closest we came was probably 2001-02 which was cool-neutral.

I will say this though, Niños are essential in resetting instability in the tropics after prolonged bouts of La Niña, so if we do somehow manage to find our way into another Niña next year there might not be much to track globally next year, at least overall.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point one thing's for sure: we definitely do not have anything close to the background state that 2013 did, considering this third year La Nina appears to have the potential to strengthen further into territory less than 0.5 C. Pretty major difference there if you had to ask me

[skyline385]

Third consecutive year of having La Niña is not a common event and anything can happen.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1552269643682922496

Imagine we get a fourth

Still thinking we'll (finally) get a Niño next year but at the same time it does depend on how far this Niña dips over the fall/winter. If we reach strong territory (or linger just below the threshold) then that dampens Niño prospects a bit, but at the same time there's the -IOD which often precedes a transition to +ENSO. And then there's also the simple fact that a quadruple-dip Niña is virtually unprecedented - don't recall a period in recent history where that happened. Closest we came was probably 2001-02 which was cool-neutral.

I will say this though, Niños are essential in resetting instability in the tropics after prolonged bouts of La Niña, so if we do somehow manage to find our way into another Niña next year there might not be much to track globally next year, at least overall.

To add to this, 1975 was the only third year Nina which strengthened significantly into peak season so 2022 will be a pretty rare occurrence, also 1975 still managed to flip to a Nino in the next year.