Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[Category 5]

I think it's an advertising campaign for Dunkin' Donuts.

[boca]

I wonder if OPEC looks at the GFS model runs.

[Eyewall]

Looks like it gets a little better organized at the end.

[Cyclenall]

That is a very broad low pressure in the Gulf.

[Meso]

why hello there

[boca]

Here's the loop for the 06GFS run.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I don't agree on the NW track in the GOM, at least not this time of year still with the westerlies.The 00GFS had the system moving NNE in the EGOM.I think that senario would pan out more.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I hope most of you realize that the GFS that far out is for entertainment purposes. You'll see that the majority of this season most models, if not all. Will not verify even remotely close to a 300hr run. I know it's for fun and that's why we're here. But don't get your hopes up. I just hope we get some needed rain here.

[Meso]

Yeah,as far out as the exact scenario is.The low first develops in less than 5 days which isn't too far out,so we should know by then what the chances of something happening is soon.Wouldn't be surprised at all to see some kind of moisture but as for the strength and location that's still very undecided.But I have seen quite a few GFS runs with bigger storms hitting pretty close with 250-300 hour out runs Also it's only the GFS that's showing this atm,the Euro has a small low in the area though it's not cut-off,it's one of those wait a few days and see.But the GFS has been pretty convinced on something happening so it does warrant a watch

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whoo-Hoo!

First EPAC storm next week





Spoiler alert- its the Canadian...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Whoo-Hoo!

First EPAC storm next week





Spoiler alert- its the Canadian...

But the UK Met agrees...



Ditto Euro...

[NDG]

You go ahead and put your trust on the cmc over the gfs, lol.

[ColdFusion]

I hope most of you realize that the GFS that far out is for entertainment purposes.

YES EVERYONE KNOWS THIS. There are at least 15 messages in THIS THREAD ALONE of people saying this over and over. We get it. We really do.

[KWT]

Interesting to see the GFS still doesn't develop the EPAC system as nearly all the other models do. I think therefore the GFS is probably catching onto the wrong area of energy to develop and the main focus on development will be in the EPAC side of the basin.

However as I said in another thread even if that does happen the track would take the remains and energy of the EPAC system into the gulf eventually anyway where it could spark off something else.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I hope most of you realize that the GFS that far out is for entertainment purposes.

YES EVERYONE KNOWS THIS. There are at least 15 messages in THIS THREAD ALONE of people saying this over and over. We get it. We really do.

You realize that beyond 180n hours the GFS resolution is decreased by half to save computing time, and the results are wildy inaccurate?

[Frank2]

I know it's for fun and that's why we're here.

You might, but, the speculator-lurkers on this site don't think so - I'd bet $5 that a percentage of the per-barrel oil price increase over the past day or so is due to what is posted here and on other "fun" web sites, since this is their source of "insider information"...

It's this type of nonsense that I really hate about the world today - when I was a child or teen, you never had this type of issue, today, due to the Internet and other forms of instant communication, everything goes - but the innocent ultimately suffer as a result of artifically-inflated oil prices...

Let's hope and pray the models are wrong - I'm all for getting the needed rainfall, but, a powerful Gulf system would be disasterous in many ways...

[boca]

I'm rooting on a lopsided tropical storm out of this nothing more. I'm starting to think that something will form in the EPAC next week on the GFS is sniffing out the wrong body of water.

[RL3AO]

Oil traders are not using S2K and looking at long range models...at least not enough of them to make a difference.

[Ed Mahmoud]

A typical early June tropical storm/minimal hurricane won't have major or long lasting effects on oil production or prices.


BTW, since the Canadian is not alone, but is similar to the UK Met and the Euro, in that possible TS formation in the next week is in the Pacific, not the Caribbean, I'd lean that direction.

IIRC, other than Cosme that crossed over and became Allison, Pacific TCs rarely effect the Gulf Coast directly (now, remnant mid-level circulations, like Pacific Hurricane Rosa, can be big rain makers in Texas), so odds are this isn't a Gulf threat anyway.

[jasons2k]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED 437 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2008

(snip)

MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) HAVE BEEN PORTRAYING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOMETHING TROPICAL TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN LATE NEXT WEEK. DONT HAVE A HANDLE FOR HOW WELL THE
GLOBAL MODELS WILL DO WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS SPINNING UP THIS
YEAR AFTER ALL OF THE MODEL TWEAKS AND PARAMETER CHANGES OVER THE
WINTER SEASON...WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT DOWN THERE BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH YET.

[cycloneye]

5/23/08 12z GFS at 114 Hours Something trying to get started just north of Panama.

12z GFS at 144 Hours Still a Weak low North of Panama.

12z GFS at 156 Hours Nothing New.

12z GFS at 168 Hours Low trying to organize east of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 204 Hours A lopsided system in Western Caribbean.