Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Ed Mahmoud]

I've noticed alternate GFS runs either recurving to near Bermuda or driving it west. 00Z and 12Z runs have been westerly. Today's 12Z run takes a cane across south Florida on about the same date Andrew hit then west across the Gulf to the MS coast on the 24th. Of course, it'll have to develop first. I think a path somewhere between Central America and recurving east of Bermuda looks most likely.

Sometimes I think WxMan57 has a very subtle sense of humor. I hope we have a SETX meet up some day.

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS is developing a different system now... the one between the two waves we are watching

This reeks big time of phantom cane... not conerned about the GFS solution at the present time

At this point, what the GFS shows (and whether its ensemble members generally support it) as far as the East Coast ridge, and whether it remains, is at least as important as individual tropical cyclones it predicts that may or may not be real.


The models sigannling so many cyclones seems to indicate, IMHO, that conditions are becoming less hostile, and the question becomes do we have a series of Big and Beautiful Bertha's to admire, long tracked storms that recurve before affecting most/all land, or does the East Coast trough shift, and open the Caribbean, Florida and the East Coast for potential trouble.

[Frank2]

I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but, there's nothing out there at this time, folks, other than the per usual ITCZ convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Dr. Lyons mentioned this morning that perhaps something might (might) develop out of the same area, but, even he said it's unknown at this time...

There are about 100 waves that cross the Atlantic during the season, but, only a fraction develop into anything significant, so, have a nice weekend...

[Numlock]

circulation evident:

[njweather]

I hate to rain on everyone's parade, but, there's nothing out there at this time, folks, other than the per usual ITCZ convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

Dr. Lyons mentioned this morning that perhaps something might (might) develop out of the same area, but, even he said it's unknown at this time...

There are about 100 waves that cross the Atlantic during the season, but, only a fraction develop into anything significant, so, have a nice weekend...

I believe forecasting is the art of determining what will be, not what is. But beyond that, the unusually high level of discussion is due to a few obvious factors:

1) This is a weather forum! People here enjoy talking about the weather. Seeing as there are no active Atlantic storms at the moment, model-based speculation is pretty much all we can do.

2) We're entering the peak of the season; atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming more favorable for cyclone formation. Waves in July are less likely to develop than waves in August and September...

[Ivanhater]

Yep, I believe the area to watch is about 18w 10.5n

[ronjon]

Yep, I believe the area to watch is about 18w 10.5n

IH, yeah, looks like low pressure already developing near 10N-19W - definite circulation on VIS SAT.

[Blown Away]

I've noticed alternate GFS runs either recurving to near Bermuda or driving it west. 00Z and 12Z runs have been westerly. Today's 12Z run takes a cane across south Florida on about the same date Andrew hit then west across the Gulf to the MS coast on the 24th. Of course, it'll have to develop first. I think a path somewhere between Central America and recurving east of Bermuda looks most likely.

That's good!

[Blown Away]

Could somebody give Lat/Long of the wave the GFS sends towards SFL, or identify on a map.

[Ivanhater]

Could somebody give Lat/Long of the wave the GFS sends towards SFL, or identify on a map.

The wave the GFS develops starts to form in about 36 hours at about where the low pressure is now 18w 10n

[cycloneye]

Conservative UKMET in its 12z run continues to show it:

Code: Select all

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.0N  26.8W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 11.08.2008  11.0N  26.8W     WEAK

 12UTC 11.08.2008  11.0N  28.0W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.08.2008  10.8N  29.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  11.5N  29.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2008  13.4N  28.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.08.2008  14.4N  30.5W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.08.2008  14.4N  32.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.08.2008  14.1N  34.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 15.08.2008  14.1N  35.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.08.2008  15.1N  36.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... /ukmet.txt

[SouthFloridawx]

Okay as far as models, this is what we got so far:

12Z Models @ 144 Hours from 00 Hour

All the models except for the NOGAPS shows this system fairly well developed in the Atlantic. It has it as a weak low or tropical wave around the same area as the others. The Nogaps is showing a developing system behind it coming off the coast, as GFS has in it's long range models. Perhaps it is a sign of things to come in the next couple of weeks. ECMWF on the 00Z run doesn't show an organized system either.

CMC

GFS

UKMET

NOGAPS

[SouthFloridawx]

Could somebody give Lat/Long of the wave the GFS sends towards SFL, or identify on a map.

Here ya go:

[MiamiensisWx]

My original unadultered ideas remain unaltered. Personally, although some people have pointed to contrary evidence, I believe the system immediately west of the African coast will develop. Currently, the wave axis has moved off the coast today, and low level 850 mb vorticity has been increasing in the vicinity of 12-14 N and 19-25 W. Satellite imagery indicates convection is increasing in this vicinity, while a broad mid level circulation is evident as well. Evidence suggests the formation of a weak surface low within the defined area (near 19-21 W) will occur over the next ~24-26 hours. SAL/capping is minimal, as I previously mentioned. Synoptic/thermodynamic data strongly supports tropical cyclogenesis originating from this area as well.

I can't see the "phantom TC" claims' basis, and I'm certainly not -removed- for development or against it.

[Derek Ortt]

no it has NOT been consistent

GFS has consistently been developing A LOW PRESSURE, but not the SAME LOW PRESSURE

There is inconsistency in the model

What I think is likely is a weak TS developing in the E Atl from the wave that is emerging. The major storm that GFS is developing quite possible is fantasy

[Vortex]

Looks like all systems go..A long tracker indeed!

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 1:45 PM EDT:

[Derek Ortt]

I think its the thing near 30W that GFS develops this time. Last time it was the one near 40

The one near 20 should be a weak TS

[Gustywind]

M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
11:10 a.m. ET 8/9/2008
In the Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean, the tropics remain quiet, but a strong tropical disturbance is moving westward off of Africa.

[cycloneye]

Anotrher perspective of the area at 30w that Derek is talking about.