Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Blown Away]

What makes this wave any different than the hundreds of waves that take this kind of track through the Atlantic each year which end up not developing? I have really no concern at all about this wave, and development just doesn't look likely anytime soon (or possibly ever) with zero model support. Certainly does not look like 2005-like conditions out there at the moment, where this wave may have had somewhat of a chance.

Will enjoy some African dust overhead this weekend here across South FL with just about 0% chance of rain (much below normal for this time of year) and no trouble from the tropics

Agree there is little chance of development, but this a big wave w/ good cyclonic rotation. The TUTT will enhance this wave and we will see more convection in a day or so and I've seen hints of moisture in the north half of the wave this evening. In a day or so we should have much more convection w/ rotation. The Canadian was bringing a low from this area to SFL.

[cycloneye]

Very active weather is expected on Monday as the wave moves thru Puerto Rico / Virgin Islands as the San Juan NWS forecast has said today.

MONDAY...CLOUDY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING...THEN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 89 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 77 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
80 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 82 LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGING TO
70 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 91 LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGING TO 78 HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCE OF RAIN
70 PERCENT.

[punkyg]

NHC thinks this wave is fairly organized with great cyclonic turning to it.
it just needs a bit of convection.


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 47/48W FROM 8N TO 19N. THE WAVE IS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CYCLONIC TURNING COVERING A BROAD
AREA OF ABOUT FIVE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. A
NARROW BAND...EXHIBITING CYCLONIC CURVATURE CONSISTING OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WAVE
AXIS. THE WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. 850 MB MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 12N48W WHERE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE
PICTURE OF THE DAY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR
THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N. THIS
WAVE WILL REACH 55W TONIGHT AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON.

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

[rockyman]

MIMIC clearly shows this broad circulation around 50W:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... /main.html

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like another SAL outbreak is occurring. Maybe not quite as intense as the one preceding it, but should keep a lid on things in the central and eastern Atlantic. It's a very unfavorable pattern with that strong TUTT in the central Atlantic and Caribbean that's clearly not going away any time soon. The strong Azores high will continue to produce widespread SAL outbreaks. It's a combination of 2007 and 2009 right now with the stationary TUTT and dry air. I'm starting to think the only storms we might get at least for the next 2-3 weeks would be from the SW Caribbean/ Parts of the Gulf. Those areas are the most favorable right now.

[Blown Away]

Circulation is very broad at best, but we are seeing a reduction in the dry air and convection is on the increase. I expect the convection to continue increasing as this wave approaches the TUTT.

WV Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye we could change the title now with twave near the EC ? Just a suggestion as the twave progresses westward towards the Leewards islands...

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye we could change the title now with twave near the EC ? Just a suggestion as the twave progresses westward towards the Leewards islands...

I just did.

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye we could change the title now with twave near the EC ? Just a suggestion as the twave progresses westward towards the Leewards islands...

I just did.

Thanks as usual a good job "Superman" Luis

[rockyman]

12z Canadian in 48 hours (low well south of Haiti):

[Sanibel]

Maybe it will combine with the Caribbean convection.

[Gustywind]

[rockyman]

Canadian at 72 hours...western Caribbean. Not sure if this is the same system...seems pretty quick:

[rockyman]

Canadian 108 hours. NW Caribbean?

[rockyman]

On second look, this system that shows up in 108 hours in the NW Caribbean could be the area east of the Islands now...while the previous low (southern Caribbean toward the Yucatan) could be the area currently in the SE Caribbean. It'll become clear once the vorticity maps come out.

[rockyman]

Full loop shows the low moving WNW across the Caribbean, then continuing WNW into the southern Gulf, north of the Yucatan

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... 12_....jpg

[Vortex]

Convection on the increase this afternoon with some model support now. This is the first time we've seen any model support other than the canadian on this system

12Z Nogaps just east of FL.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

12Z NAM

Closed low Just north of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif