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ROCK wrote:Vortex wrote:Bottom line the GFS continues to suggest there will be enough of a weakness over the GOM to carry this out of the NW Caribbean. How strong that trough is along the east coast will determine the final destination…
agree...no weakness = MX slight weakness =TX med weakness=LA big weakness= FL
Date (UTC): 2010/09/16 13:10
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/09/16 13:37
Revised at(UTC): 2010/09/16 13:48
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Pouch Name: PGI46L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 10N 35W
Notes:
Staring very early with this one. There is a lot of uncertainty
at the start. Tracked at 700hPa ... perhaps I should have
tracked at a lower level.
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ECMWF: Phase Speed: -5.4 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120h, but very uncertain 0-36 hours. Initial OW max
moves eastward, then another moves southward from the north and
becomes the pouch that tracks westward.
GFS: Phase Speed: -1.5 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120h, but uncertain at 0-12 and 72-96 hours. The
uncertainty at the later period is most likely because the phase
speed is best at the beginning when the pouch is moving slowly
and not once it begins to move quickly westward at the end of
the forecast.
UKMET: Phase Speed: -3.1 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 108h, but very uncertain 0-36 and 72-96 hours. The
uncertainty at the later period is most likely because the phase
speed is best at the beginning when the pouch is moving slowly
and not once it begins to move quickly westward at the end of
the forecast.
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -5.2 Determination: v700 only Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track: 120h, but very uncertain 0-36 hours.
Vortex wrote:Ivan that’s interesting…Nogaps appears quite abit further North than the GFS. I can’t pull up the nogaps at work…What direction is it moving towards the end of run?
Ivanhater wrote:Got a break in between classes and all I can say is wow. Once again, I hope all Gommers are keeping up with this system (lurkers included). Chances of the Gulf dealing with this are increasing. On a positive note, still a long way out so we have time for things to change...hopefully.
The North central Gulf is hit this run because the trough is far enough north to induce a weakness for this to ride north. If the trough dug more, it would pick it up and head NE. If the trough is more of a shortwave feature and only erodes the western edge of the ridge, Texas is in danger. Progression and timing of the trough will be key, but there does seem to be continuity on the GFS of there being a trough.
....Once again, I hope all Gommers are keeping up with this system (lurkers included). Chances of the Gulf dealing with this are increasing. On a positive note, still a long way out so we have time for things to change...hopefully.
cycloneye wrote:ColinDelia, do you have the link to the text site?
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