Season Cancel!

[jinftl]

It's funny...we have 2 named systems in the Atlantic, including a Cat 3 whose eye can now be tracked on Bermuda radar and may again threaten New Foundland with at least tropical storm conditons on Monday...not to mention we had a 150 mph typhoon make landfall this morning in the same area of Luzon in the Philippines that just got hit by a 120 mph typhoon 5 days earlier...thrown in an invest in the central Pacific for good measure...but the season cancel thread is getting the attention today!

original post updated at 6pm edt:
Now throw into the mix today the possibility that Philippe is conservatively estimated to have 65 mph winds now....the NHC is opening the door to a post-season analysis upgrade to a hurricane perhaps...making this the 5th of the season potentially in post-analysis...not a boring, 'closed for the season' day in the tropics!!!

From 5pm NHC Discussion on Philippe:

AN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT
SURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW
BIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT
MEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.

[Macrocane]

Ok we have a cat 4 in the Atlantic, that doesn't seem like a "season cance" to me, not yet

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This year and last year have been hyperactive...not as destructive as 2005 thank goodness but still hyperactive... At 2011's
current pace we will be the most active season ever besides 2005....

[bexar]

after Ophelia and Philippe, seems like there would be another lull according Dr. Jeff Masters?

[ConvergenceZone]

It's funny...we have 2 named systems in the Atlantic, including a Cat 3 whose eye can now be tracked on Bermuda radar and may again threaten New Foundland with at least tropical storm conditons on Monday...not to mention we had a 150 mph typhoon make landfall this morning in the same area of Luzon in the Philippines that just got hit by a 120 mph typhoon 5 days earlier...thrown in an invest in the central Pacific for good measure...but the season cancel thread is getting the attention today!

Yes, there's a couple of systems in the Atlantic, but so far September doesn't seem busier than August was, and yet September suppose to be the busiest month, when activity is at a peak. I just don't see the flurry activity that was talked about prior....

[dwsqos2]

The 12Z gfs is very depressing if one likes tropical cyclones.

Dear Atmosphere,

Ophelia was a nice change of pace, but it would be nice to see a late season storm of tropical origins. The last thing I want to see is an upper trough dominating the Gulf of Mexico.

Regards,
dwsqos2

[bexar]

2011 is such a weird season, for both EPAC and Atlantic.

Supposed to be a La Nina year, but the storm activity in both basins seems more like an El Nino year with the EPAC having very strong storms while the Atlantic has weak and struggling ones. Just like 2002 season.


Why are the activities in both basins seem to be swapped?

[Macrocane]

To be fair, none of them have behaved like an El Niño nor La Niña. The Pacific has had a small number of tropical storms but a high number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, on the other hand the Atlantic has had an above average number of tropical storms and major hurricanes but a near normal number of hurricanes. Plus in terms of ACE the Atlantic is a little above average and the EPAC is below.

[bexar]

^ But with 2 potential major hurricanes, the EPac would most likely now beat the Atlantic in the ACE.

since the warm phase of AMO started in 1995, it only happened in 1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009... which all were El Nino years.

[bg1]

Neither season has really been a "season cancel". The Atlantic is above normal in terms of ACE (just barely), and average in the number of major hurricanes (3). In my opinion, even though the EPAC may only end up with 10 storms, at least 8 of them will be hurricanes, most likely 9, with possibly 6 major hurricanes.

However, the amount of weak storms in the Atlantic has really been a letdown in terms of strength.

The Atlantic so far stands at 16/5/3, or 31.25% of all named storms becoming hurricanes. That is still less than the lowest ratio: 33%, last matched in 2009. Four storms in the EPAC have either matched or exceeded Ophelia's wind speed (140 mph). But at least the last two storms have been interesting to track.

[bexar]

I agree, the higher ratio of weak named systems is a bummer, something you would most likely see in an El Nino year like in 2002.

More or less, this season is comparable to 2007 (minus the Cat. 5s). There were many struggling systems in the far open atlantic back then.

[somethingfunny]

16/5/3 is a wierd number. But of those 11 tropical storms that never reached hurricane strength, remove 5 of them. 11/5/3? Totally normal.

Which 5 should we remove? Easy... Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Jose. I wish I had never wasted a single minute of my life tracking those ones. Especially Don. Although I actually did blink and miss Jose entirely.

[ConvergenceZone]

Neither season has really been a "season cancel". The Atlantic is above normal in terms of ACE (just barely), and average in the number of major hurricanes (3). In my opinion, even though the EPAC may only end up with 10 storms, at least 8 of them will be hurricanes, most likely 9, with possibly 6 major hurricanes.

However, the amount of weak storms in the Atlantic has really been a letdown in terms of strength.

The Atlantic so far stands at 16/5/3, or 31.25% of all named storms becoming hurricanes. That is still less than the lowest ratio: 33%, last matched in 2009. Four storms in the EPAC have either matched or exceeded Ophelia's wind speed (140 mph). But at least the last two storms have been interesting to track.

Yea, it's not so much a "season cancel" as "season ending early"....That's probably a more appropriate title for this thread. Already moving into th 2nd week of October and still nothing new.

[bexar]

a favorable MJO is coming but the long range models aren't really picking up something really interesting or exciting for the next weeks

models aren't really doing much on the muched talked about low that is going to develop near Florida.

could be a quiet October?

[dwsqos2]

This is just depressing.

http://i56.tinypic.com/vemyag.png

[HurricaneRyan]

16/5/3 is a wierd number. But of those 11 tropical storms that never reached hurricane strength, remove 5 of them. 11/5/3? Totally normal.

Which 5 should we remove? Easy... Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Jose. I wish I had never wasted a single minute of my life tracking those ones. Especially Don. Although I actually did blink and miss Jose entirely.

In that logic, we would have had:

Tropical Storm Arlene
Tropical Storm Bret
Tropical Storm Cindy
Tropical Storm Don
Hurricane Emily
Hurricane Franklin
Tropical Storm Gert
Hurricane Harvey

Tropical Storm Irene
Hurricane Jose
Hurricane Katia

Emily would get retired instead of Irene.

[HurricaneRyan]

Btw, the Eastern Pacific is looking more interesting, considering we might have 3 storms heading for Mexico. And we might get Kenneth in there, which happens to be my first name, so I'll definitely be paying attention for my namesake.

[ConvergenceZone]

Approaching Mid-October, and again, I know I sound like a broken record, but I keep waiting and waiting for all of the storms that people said would be on their way once we got to mid september. How long should we wait for???

[bexar]

I think Philippe will be the season's last named system. Just a guess.

[dwsqos2]

Considering that pathetic -ENSO seasons like 2007, 1975, and really 2000 managed a storm forming after October 1st, even I think that this season will produce at least one more named storm.