Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Gustywind]

10 plus pages for something that is not even an invest yet. Yep things are definitely slow in the tropics right now.

http://files.myopera.com/wahyuekop/albu ... _thumb.jpg

On a lighter, off topic note, I was wondering when Gusty would finally shows us a picture of himself...

Thanks my friend Tyni when do you show yours?

[CourierPR]

Something tells me that things will start rockin' and rollin' soon and we'll be trying to put the lid back on the bottle.

[blp]

I think we need to see tonights Euro to see if it is gone before we make a conclusion. This is not the first time the Euro has lost this system. The system first appeared on the Euro with 00z run on Sun 8-14 then on the next run on the 12z Sun 8-14 it vanished only to reappear on the 00z Mon 8-15 run in a weak state and then ramped up on 12z 8-15 run.

Source:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004080912!!/

[cycloneye]

I think we need to see tonights Euro to see if it is gone before we make a conclusion. This is not the first time the Euro has lost this system. The system first appeared on the Euro with 00z run on Sun 8-14 then on the next run on the 12z Sun 8-14 it vanished only to reappear on the 00z Mon 8-15 run in a weak state and then ramped up on 12z 8-15 run.

Source:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004080912!!/

If you go to the "Global Model Runs Discussion Thread" at page 124, I talked about the extravaganza of EURO.

[blp]

If you go to the "Global Model Runs Discussion Thread" at page 124, I talked about the extravaganza of EURO.

I just saw your post on the other thread. I have seen this before from the Euro through the years. With that said, there have also been many times where the Euro has been keen on the trend and the GFS follows suit. So, I am interested to see the next two rounds of the GFS.

[caneseddy]

18z GFS running.....

[caneseddy]

18z GFS a bit weaker this run so far and a bit more south entering the Caribbean, but not by much compared to the 12z run

[caneseddy]

At 132 hours, starts intensifying in the Caribbean SE of Puerto Rico

At 138 hours heading towards PR and Eastern Hispaniola..same track so far as the 12z

[blp]

18z GFS still on it. Looks very close to the 12z...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfstropical850mbVortSLP132.gif

[Miami Storm Tracker]

18z GFS still on it. Looks very close to the 12z...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfstropical850mbVortSLP132.gif

So track has still not changed and the GFS still shows a storm. Would bet the Euro run comes back on board when it runs.

[lonelymike]

I think we need to see tonights Euro to see if it is gone before we make a conclusion. This is not the first time the Euro has lost this system. The If you go to the "Global Model Runs Discussion Thread" at page 124, I talked about the extravaganza of EURO.

Same could be said for the fantasyland of the GFS

Both camps have their passionate supporters. Both models have done very well and both have been horrible.

Its what makes this board fun

[KWT]

Smashes into hispaniola and takes a big hit...track very close to Emily thus far...might track over Cuba as well...

Edit- Yep into E.Cuba...taking the Georges track through the islands...fairly weak due to land interaction but certainly a TC.

Eventually up the east Florida as a strengthening system.

[maxintensity]

18z GFS has none of the 12z Euro and maintaines a US major hurricane landfall.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Take a look at that rotation. I like the overall structure, now it needs some thunderstorm activity to begin to develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

[cycloneye]

Take a look at that rotation. I like the overall structure, now it needs some thunderstorm activity to begin to develop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-rgb.html

The folks at NHC may be waiting for some convection to pop up to then designate it as invest.

[Brent]

Well this would be a disaster...

[HurricaneWarning92]

Isnt it already at 15N? Thats pretty high in latitude if a storm were to develop... so IMO for it to go to the Caribbean, it would have to go mainly due west across the Atlantic. A wobble to to the north and it goes north of the islands. Unless is goes wsw. BUT... just my opinion.

[wxman57]

Isnt it already at 15N? Thats pretty high in latitude if a storm were to develop... so IMO for it to go to the Caribbean, it would have to go mainly due west across the Atlantic. A wobble to to the north and it goes north of the islands. Unless is goes wsw. BUT... just my opinion.

There's a massive high to its north. It can't really gain much latitude. In fact, it may track a bit south of west:

[HurricaneWarning92]

Isnt it already at 15N? Thats pretty high in latitude if a storm were to develop... so IMO for it to go to the Caribbean, it would have to go mainly due west across the Atlantic. A wobble to to the north and it goes north of the islands. Unless is goes wsw. BUT... just my opinion.

There's a massive high to its north. It can't really gain much latitude. In fact, it may track a bit south of west:

ah i see. thanks wxman57!

[KWT]

Yep thats a really strong upper high, probably not helping with regards to dry air coming round the southern flank of the high either...