2014 hurricane season forecasts

[gigabite]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/829/5z7d.jpg

This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.

That's the East Pacific not the Atlantic FYI. There's an EPAC seasonal thread

Does that mean you don't disagree with the thesis on a philosophic, or religious point? Some people believe that the moon is just to far away to shape weather, and others believe that celestial mechanics violates "Divine Providence."

[euro6208]

http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/829/5z7d.jpg

This is 2 for 4. This Season two tropical depressions have formed in the span of 4 days either side of the
New Moon, Hurricane Amanda, and Tropical Depression Four. The mechanism seems to be more than just
the effect of atmospheric tide. This outcome is repeats every season. The percentage is generally above
50, and can get as high as 80.

That's the East Pacific not the Atlantic FYI. There's an EPAC seasonal thread

Does that mean you don't disagree with the thesis on a philosophic, or religious point? Some people believe that the moon is just to far away to shape weather, and others believe that celestial mechanics violates "Divine Providence."

What does this mean for the WPAC season? I see Jul 1 in the Malay Peninsula and onwards in the WPAC...

[tolakram]

Does that mean you don't disagree with the thesis on a philosophic, or religious point? Some people believe that the moon is just to far away to shape weather, and others believe that celestial mechanics violates "Divine Providence."

I'm not sure I understand why it matters and that is certainly not a discussion we want to have here. Thanks.

[gigabite]

What does this mean for the WPAC season? I see Jul 1 in the Malay Peninsula and onwards in the WPAC...

There is an invest 90w at 7.9 North and East 156.4, that just popped. Tomorrow is the last day of the event phase, and latitude of the New Moon is at 9.8. There doesn't seem to be much moisture there and the event's energy is almost equal to normal. I don't think it will register in my database.

When the event is over the Sahara earthquake frequencies seem to increase. There has been a few magnitude 4's in Greece and a few magnitude 6's in the wpac. There was a 6 near Bonin Islands, Japan region today 2014-06-30 15:55:32 UTC-04:00. Tomorrow the event will be passing from the Indian Plate onto the Sunda Plate.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm looking at the current Subsurface anomalies in the Enso and it is indicating the the ENSO will probably stay in a +neutral state when almost everybody was expecting a Super El Nino in March so what I'm thinking based on that is that the Caribbean and MDR might open up to more favorable conditions as we come into the peak of the hurricane season and this development could cause a lot of people to eat crow with the low numbers forecasted to go with an El Nino that may not happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Does that mean you don't disagree with the thesis on a philosophic, or religious point? Some people believe that the moon is just to far away to shape weather, and others believe that celestial mechanics violates "Divine Providence."

I'm not sure I understand why it matters and that is certainly not a discussion we want to have here. Thanks.

Though I agree that this particular forum might not be appropriate for discussion of a "moon phase" tropical development forecast tool, I'd be quite interested to hear more and better understand the mechanics of potential gravitational impact on our tropical season. Perhaps a new thread within "Talkin Tropics" can be initiated for those interested?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have never seen the Atlantic so hostile for tropical cyclones.

The first image shows 850-200mb wind shear. Blue colors indicate above-average values, while orange values indicate below-average values.

The second image shows 200mb velocity potential. Brown and orange colors indicate upper-level divergence, which indicates that air is colliding in the upper atmosphere and sinking. Sinking air dries out the column, making it difficult for tropical cyclones. Blue and green colors indicate upper-level divergence, which indicates that air is pulling apart. When this occurs, air from the bottom of the column rushes in to fill the void, lowering surface pressures. This is good for tropical cyclone development.

The third image is a common Saharan Air Layer (SAL) -- dust -- map. A stronger-than-average Bermuda High has allowed for above-average amounts of SAL to spill into the central and eastern Atlantic despite a wetter-than-average African Sahel.

The fourth image is a weekly-averaged sea surface temperature anomaly map. Though the May (still waiting for June's) AMO value came in slightly positive, the SST configuration reminds me more of the -AMO, with a cool horseshoe-shaped ring of below-average values from Newfoundland to the Azores down to the central and eastern Atlantic. The only positive so far is that above-average...up to 2C...waters are located off the East Coast.

[tolakram]

Does that mean you don't disagree with the thesis on a philosophic, or religious point? Some people believe that the moon is just to far away to shape weather, and others believe that celestial mechanics violates "Divine Providence."

I'm not sure I understand why it matters and that is certainly not a discussion we want to have here. Thanks.

Though I agree that this particular forum might not be appropriate for discussion of a "moon phase" tropical development forecast tool, I'd be quite interested to hear more and better understand the mechanics of potential gravitational impact on our tropical season. Perhaps a new thread within "Talkin Tropics" can be initiated for those interested?

I was responding to what I quoted, not the idea of moon phases influencing tropical weather.

[SFLcane]

I'm looking at the current Subsurface anomalies in the Enso and it is indicating the the ENSO will probably stay in a +neutral state when almost everybody was expecting a Super El Nino in March so what I'm thinking based on that is that the Caribbean and MDR might open up to more favorable conditions as we come into the peak of the hurricane season and this development could cause a lot of people to eat crow with the low numbers forecasted to go with an El Nino that may not happen

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

+1

[ConvergenceZone]

I have never seen the Atlantic so hostile for tropical cyclones.

The first image shows 850-200mb wind shear. Blue colors indicate above-average values, while orange values indicate below-average values.

The second image shows 200mb velocity potential. Brown and orange colors indicate upper-level divergence, which indicates that air is colliding in the upper atmosphere and sinking. Sinking air dries out the column, making it difficult for tropical cyclones. Blue and green colors indicate upper-level divergence, which indicates that air is pulling apart. When this occurs, air from the bottom of the column rushes in to fill the void, lowering surface pressures. This is good for tropical cyclone development.

The third image is a common Saharan Air Layer (SAL) -- dust -- map. A stronger-than-average Bermuda High has allowed for above-average amounts of SAL to spill into the central and eastern Atlantic despite a wetter-than-average African Sahel.

The fourth image is a weekly-averaged sea surface temperature anomaly map. Though the May (still waiting for June's) AMO value came in slightly positive, the SST configuration reminds me more of the -AMO, with a cool horseshoe-shaped ring of below-average values from Newfoundland to the Azores down to the central and eastern Atlantic. The only positive so far is that above-average...up to 2C...waters are located off the East Coast.

http://i.imgur.com/qiY7ycB.gif
http://i.imgur.com/mw4h7fG.gif
http://i.imgur.com/Qrb60jq.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/DUYt8ow.gif

Yea, I agree, I wouldn't be sutprised if we dont see any more activity at all until early to mid-September and with such a low activity year expected, this shouldn't surprise anyone....

[WPBWeather]

I think it might be a little early to "quiet down" the season. Some of the data shown are lagging (not leading) indicators. And some are more points in time and do not necessarily show a trend. In any event, last season was called by some the most hostile environment for tropical development too. And the season before that, etc. A most probable neutral El Nino seems the only sure thing developing at the moment.

[NDG]

We neutral conditions remaining in Nino 3.4 longer than expected and with CFSv2 continuing to persist for Nino 1+2 to continue cooling down some more I would expect for conditions in the tropical Atlantic to become better during the peak of the Hurricane season so we may see a busier ASO period than many originally thought, IMO.
Conditions in the western Subtropical Atlantic are still forecasted to remain favorable so I would expect that's where we will to see storms blossom like Arthur did.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[tolakram]

I'm starting to wonder if instability is also a lagging indicator. Is instability low because we haven't had any tropical disturbances, or is the lack of tropical disturbances due to low instability?

[Hurricaneman]

If any of may analog years most of which are weak to moderate El Ninos happen in any way I think that we will be waiting until Early to mid August and likely its then that I believe things are going to go pop in the Atlantic and I think that the East Coast really needs to be paying attention but don't let your guard down if you live anywhere on the coastline

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

We neutral conditions remaining in Nino 3.4 longer than expected and with CFSv2 continuing to persist for Nino 1+2 to continue cooling down some more I would expect for conditions in the tropical Atlantic to become better during the peak of the Hurricane season so we may see a busier ASO period than many originally thought, IMO.
Conditions in the western Subtropical Atlantic are still forecasted to remain favorable so I would expect that's where we will to see storms blossom like Arthur did.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The fact that we already had a Cat.2 hurricane off the SE Coast by the beginning of July is what interest me.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

None of the factors I mentioned above are being moderated by ENSO since the atmosphere has not yet responded to the warm waters in the Pacific, so saying that we might get a busier season because El Nino isn't materializing as once expected isn't really a good point.

[NDG]

None of the factors I mentioned above are being moderated by ENSO since the atmosphere has not yet responded to the warm waters in the Pacific, so saying that we might get a busier season because El Nino isn't materializing as once expected isn't really a good point.

The atmosphere did respond to the warm waters of the eastern Pacific in our part of the world, one good example has been the very high windshear across the Caribbean. You do not find such high windshear across the Caribbean when cool neutral or La Nina conditions are present across the eastern Nino regions, especially Nino 1+2.

[PTrackerLA]

What's interesting to me is it seems the weather patterns are starting to resemble 2004 with these anomalous troughs coming down in the east. That season got off to a slow start until the very end of July and then boom. I distinctly remember record breaking cold for this area while Hurricane Charley was being pulled over the west coast of Florida. We had lows in the 50s in August! It seems to me that similar upper level pattern could be in place this season but will there be any systems to take advantage of this?

[Hurricaneman]

What's interesting to me is it seems the weather patterns are starting to resemble 2004 with these anomalous troughs coming down in the east. That season got off to a slow start until the very end of July and then boom. I distinctly remember record breaking cold for this area while Hurricane Charley was being pulled over the west coast of Florida. We had lows in the 50s in August! It seems to me that similar upper level pattern could be in place this season but will there be any systems to take advantage of this?

The pattern is very much like 2004 but the main difference is that the MDR has below normal instability and there is screaming shear in the Caribbean but the fact that 2004 is brought up at all is making me stay vigilant as there could be a problem if the Caribbean shear goes away.

And another note is there were e storms that formed in the MDR{Frances, Danielle and Ivan} in which I don't think a storm like them is going to happen but the storms that formed west of 50W are the type I do expect come August based on the pattern and don't be surprised even if not likely if a Charley type system happens and shows us that while the MDR is dry and stable that conditions farther west can't be more favorable

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[StormingB81]

That is probably one thing Florida residents dont want to hear.....2004 was a bad year for Florida.

What's interesting to me is it seems the weather patterns are starting to resemble 2004 with these anomalous troughs coming down in the east. That season got off to a slow start until the very end of July and then boom. I distinctly remember record breaking cold for this area while Hurricane Charley was being pulled over the west coast of Florida. We had lows in the 50s in August! It seems to me that similar upper level pattern could be in place this season but will there be any systems to take advantage of this?

The pattern is very much like 2004 but the main difference is that the MDR has below normal instability and there is screaming shear in the Caribbean but the fact that 2004 is brought up at all is making me stay vigilant as there could be a problem if the Caribbean shear goes away.

And another note is there were e storms that formed in the MDR{Frances, Danielle and Ivan} in which I don't think a storm like them is going to happen but the storms that formed west of 50W are the type I do expect come August based on the pattern and don't be surprised even if not likely if a Charley type system happens and shows us that while the MDR is dry and stable that conditions farther west can't be more favorable

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products