Tropical Wave east of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 96L)

[perk]

NHC refuses to bite, still 10/20 on the probs

I don't think they refuse to bite.They have time to watch these waves.

[cycloneye]

What wave is this thread about? I'm going to make another post in the global thread. UKMet and Euro develop different features that end up near the same spot in 5 days. I think they are picking up on improved conditions but not locking into what wave will develop.

This is for the lead wave closer to Lesser Antilles. Yes,there is some confusion with this monsoon.

[tropicwatch]

Well if whatever happens the shear in the Caribbean has to come down for anything traversing it. Right the wind shear is running at 40 to 50kts. Yuck

[Blown Away]

What wave is this thread about? I'm going to make another post in the global thread. UKMet and Euro develop different features that end up near the same spot in 5 days. I think they are picking up on improved conditions but not locking into what wave will develop.

This is for the lead wave closer to Lesser Antilles. Yes,there is some confusion with this monsoon.

[Blown Away]

What wave is this thread about? I'm going to make another post in the global thread. UKMet and Euro develop different features that end up near the same spot in 5 days. I think they are picking up on improved conditions but not locking into what wave will develop.

This is for the lead wave closer to Lesser Antilles. Yes,there is some confusion with this monsoon.

[NDG]

Well if whatever happens the shear in the Caribbean has to come down for anything traversing it. Right the wind shear is running at 40 to 50kts. Yuck

A track across the northern Leeward Islands will give it better odds of surviving the still strong low level jet across the southern Caribbean.
As far as UL winds the models forecast the ULL north of the Caribbean to move NW and dissipate over time.

[gatorcane]

Interesting times ahead if the models are correct. Shows one these wave heading wnw under a building ridge to its north tracking towards sfl/keys and into gulf. euorpean,canadian,ukmet all showing development now.

Here is the nogaps 00z

From what I can see the global models are all building a strong ridge over Eastern North America and Western Atlantic starting early to mid-next week, once this weekend's trough pulls out of the Western Atlantic. The models for the past couple of days kept this trough around much longer through most of next week which would have recurved anything away from the U.S.. Could get very interesting indeed if this pattern setups up for next week.

[canes04]

I believe Panama mentioned a merger may occur.. This may be the case.
It may take a day or 2, but would not be surprised if this happens.

As far as track, it's way to early to speculate until we get a true center.

[gatorcane]

06Z GFS ensembles a week from now show the majority of them in the Bahamas area. GFS ensembles develop this wave, not the one to the east:

[Blown Away]

72 hour forecast positions for our waves... The east wave moves into the caribbean and the west wave moves WNW towards NE Caribbean...

[SFLcane]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT TUE 19 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15.0N 55.0W AT 21/1730Z.

[cycloneye]

Invest may be up later today or tonight.

[canes04]

Merger may be taken place this morning. We may have a player within 48 hours.

[OuterBanker]

Apparently we have something for everyone. This is the Caribbean cruiser, the other is the east coast and islands.

[PTrackerLA]

Well my interest is definitely piqued for this one. Would like to see some consistency in the models before I start buying into these runs but the MDR sure is starting to look juicy this morning.

[Alyono]

EC is NOT developing this disturbance, it is developing the one behind it

What we have is different models developing different disturbances. Thus, we do NOT have a model consensus on development

[PTrackerLA]

EC is NOT developing this disturbance, it is developing the one behind it

What we have is different models developing different disturbances. Thus, we do NOT have a model consensus on development

Isn't the EC 'terrible' at storm formation in the MDR?

[Alyono]

EC is NOT developing this disturbance, it is developing the one behind it

What we have is different models developing different disturbances. Thus, we do NOT have a model consensus on development

Isn't the EC 'terrible' at storm formation in the MDR?

yes, it is. However, the fact it IS developing something other than what GFS does cause a double take

[SouthDadeFish]

EC is NOT developing this disturbance, it is developing the one behind it

What we have is different models developing different disturbances. Thus, we do NOT have a model consensus on development

Isn't the EC 'terrible' at storm formation in the MDR?

The EC has a tendency to "miss" tropical cyclogenesis. That is, it doesn't develop many of the storms that actually do develop. It is still one of the premier (if not the best deterministic) models for track forecast.

[Sanibel]

The models are guilty of model-casting most of the time.