Tropical Wave over the SE Bahamas (Is INVEST 91L)

[cycloneye]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

Looks like too i think . Given our local Pro Mets, Wednesday should be a very humid and rainy day! Moderate too high rainfall values are even expected?
Frequents strong showers and tstorms are expected already tonight afternoon till Thursday. I will keep informed if anything happens in Guadeloupe. Let's wait and see.

Good report Gusty. Will be waiting for your future reports from the butterfly island.

[SoupBone]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

I agree. It's already being discussed by my paid for services, though they are only giving it a 10% chance until it (possibly) makes it to the GoM, where chances increase. I'm interested to see where this thing begins to feel a weakness.

[Ian2401]

Upper level conditions look nasty for this wave, i think it's highly unlikely we see any development until at least it reaches the gulf.

[Gustywind]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

Looks like too i think . Given our local Pro Mets, Wednesday should be a very humid and rainy day! Moderate too high rainfall values are even expected?
Frequents strong showers and tstorms are expected already tonight afternoon till Thursday. I will keep informed if anything happens in Guadeloupe. Let's wait and see.

Good report Gusty. Will be waiting for your future reports from the butterfly island.

Thanks Luis. You're welcome

[SoupBone]

Upper level conditions look nasty for this wave, i think it's highly unlikely we see any development until at least it reaches the gulf.

Cue the shear map!

[ronjon]

Development chances look near zero based on shear and dry air until it approaches the Bahamas - however global models from that point into the GOM show favorable conditions for development. Given that the latent heat from the GOM is untapped so far, this one might develop a little more deeply than expected.

[BobHarlem]

Upper level conditions look nasty for this wave, i think it's highly unlikely we see any development until at least it reaches the gulf.

Cue the shear map!

http://i64.tinypic.com/15fhzdy.gif

This pretty much means the area won't develop now, but these shear maps aren't good for anything outside of today much less 6-12 days out.

[Steve]

I think NHC will begin to mention it in TWO if not today definitly on Wednesday.

I agree. It's already being discussed by my paid for services, though they are only giving it a 10% chance until it (possibly) makes it to the GoM, where chances increase. I'm interested to see where this thing begins to feel a weakness.

I'm not sure it shows a weakness. Obviously I'm only curious at this point with the GFS/EC agreeing on a surface solution 10 days out. But if you notice the angle of landfall - from the ESE - that says it's just riding the perimeter of the high. So however far west that western periphery is probably where it goes. Also, bear in mind that this is early September where recurves are less likely than later in the season. Gonna be a big week ahead if they stay with this or a similar solution in the Gulf.

[cycloneye]

@webberweather
This sharp tropical wave axis ~ 900 miles east of PR likely poses the first legit threat for TCG close to the US coastline next week. PV generation from scattered-numerous sheared cB towers on the northern end of the wave axis will preserve the incident vort max as it heads west.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1034428440957669378

[stormlover2013]

yes steve, thats what i have been saying, people want to say the GFS and Euro are showing same thing but its really not, GFS always shows stronger fronts and troughs this time of the year acting like its a October pattern, this won't be a recurve, I could see this going to mexico to La and I also could see this riding the ridge up from La to tx just my 2 cents

[SoupBone]

yes steve, thats what i have been saying, people want to say the GFS and Euro are showing same thing but its really not, GFS always shows stronger fronts and troughs this time of the year acting like its a October pattern, this won't be a recurve, I could see this going to mexico to La and I also could see this riding the ridge up from La to tx just my 2 cents

But this is contrary to fact. There have been fronts and troughs dip down in the early part of September, albeit not common. I see what Steve is saying though, so it's possible that it rides the outskirts of the ridge to its final destination. And by recurve, I don't think anyone thought this was a fish (I certainly don't), but I'm definitely interested in what will be the steering for this system.

[Steve]

Good points stormlover & soupbone

Like I said, I'm in "curious" mode at this point because no one should trust a model 10 days out. BUT because of the similarity at the surface (not so much upper patterns), it's like both models from this far out expect a fairly developed system hitting Plaquemines or St. Bernard Parish which is a pretty specific area. They'll probably drop and change solutions in subsequent runs, but for now, it's an interesting phenomenon. Agree with Soup that sometimes fronts due come down in early September (or even in August on occasions), so it's possible. But at the same time, stormlover is right in that GFS does overdo troughs from the CONUS across the Atlantic Ocean until each benchmark gets passed and it readjusts farther west.

FWIW, I'm not making a call saying "look, this future system is coming for Louisiana" at all. I'm just commenting on the modeling. If we get to next Tuesday and there still appears to be a threat to the NC Gulf, I'll start preparing with an early grocery/water run.

[stormlover2013]

recurve meaning gfs shows it scooting east after landfall because of a front!!! GFS over does fronts this early, Euro doesn't show it.

[OuterBanker]

Is this not the wave that the Euro sends a 984 hurricane into NOLA?

[SoupBone]

Is this not the wave that the Euro sends a 984 hurricane into NOLA?

Yes, it was showing a South Texas coast hit yesterday (or at least one of the models was showing that), and now it's shifted to the Louisiana coast (near Plaquemines Parish).

EDIT: I know I'm not crazy, but I can't find the model showing the South Texas landfall. I'm sure it was this system though.

[cycloneye]

Is this not the wave that the Euro sends a 984 hurricane into NOLA?

All indications are that this is the one the models are latching to for GOM activity.Right now conditions are not favorable to start to organize as the TUTT trough is nearby but after it passes it,then all bets are off.

[Hurricaneman]

Personally I think it’s possible that the area north of Hispaniola and this wave combine and that’s what sets things off with this wave, this may develop in the Bahamas and anywhere from the Florida peninsula to the Tex/Mex border need to monitor this wave around the weekend onward

[GCANE]

Low-Level Vort is picking up
17N 54W

[Ivanhater]

Gfs dropping development

[toad strangler]

POOF goes the 12z GFS