Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[northjaxpro]

If recon goes out, then this would be the first time that recon goes out on a system that has not been designated as an invest

Even though recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out today, i'd be surprised if it did. I'd guess they cancel the flight and fly out tomorrow instead. This system has the earmarks of yet another NHC quick upgrade from an eventual "Potential Tropical Cyclone" event to a 12-18 hr. lifespan "T.S. Nestor" somewhere just south of Pensacola (whether or not there there will be more then one or two verifiable 35 kt. sustained wind obs within 50 miles of the COC is another topic altogether). I would imagine that there could be an enhanced tornado risk over from Mobile Alabama eastward to N. Florida. Right now it looks like the 12Z Icon is coming in a tad bit stronger (approx 1002 mb?) and slightly further east then it's prior model runs

Sounds good, to me. Brief TS that may have a few 35kt winds. Systems like this (moving into increasing westerly wind shear) tend to track farther east with time.

Yep. The models already have trended significantly eastward. We look to get some pretty good rain from this system going into this weekend across Northern Florida.

[Ivanhater]

Umm 12z gfs is intensifying to coast

[LarryWx]

Even though recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out today, i'd be surprised if it did. I'd guess they cancel the flight and fly out tomorrow instead. This system has the earmarks of yet another NHC quick upgrade from an eventual "Potential Tropical Cyclone" event to a 12-18 hr. lifespan "T.S. Nestor" somewhere just south of Pensacola (whether or not there there will be more then one or two verifiable 35 kt. sustained wind obs within 50 miles of the COC is another topic altogether). I would imagine that there could be an enhanced tornado risk over from Mobile Alabama eastward to N. Florida. Right now it looks like the 12Z Icon is coming in a tad bit stronger (approx 1002 mb?) and slightly further east then it's prior model runs

Sounds good, to me. Brief TS that may have a few 35kt winds. Systems like this (moving into increasing westerly wind shear) tend to track farther east with time.

Yep. The models already have trended significantly eastward. We look to get some pretty good rain from this system going into this weekend across Northern Florida.

Regarding the overall eastward trend, it wouldn’t surprise me if the center ends up going over the FL peninsula rather than over the FL Panhandle and also faster. Let’s see how trends go the rest of today.

[boca]

Will South Florida get rain out of this or are we too far south?

[gatorcane]

Definitely more organized on this run of the GFS as it approaches the coast:

[LarryWx]

Definitely more organized on this run of the GFS as it approaches the coast:

https://i.postimg.cc/c1c3Nn3d/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-11.png

The 12Z GFS has significantly less wind shear on the storm path than prior runs.

[northjaxpro]

That is the strongest run I have seen yet . 997 mb is a strong system. It will be lopsided with the heaviest rain and strongest wind to the northeast and east of the coc, but no doubt this would be a respectable cyclone if this verifies like the 12Z GFS is showing.

I am surprised the SPC has not highlighted a much more risk of severe storms for Friday night int Saturday for North Florida and South Georgia with a landfalling cyclone for this weekend. I would have to believe that will be updated soon by them.

[LarryWx]

Wow, the 12Z UKMET is much stronger than prior runs with 988 mb near landfall on the FL Panhandle! Also, the track is SE of prior runs. This needs to be invested ASAP.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 22.0N 96.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2019 24 22.0N 96.2W 1007 36
0000UTC 18.10.2019 36 23.3N 94.9W 1002 32
1200UTC 18.10.2019 48 24.5N 91.9W 1001 33
0000UTC 19.10.2019 60 27.2N 88.6W 993 42
1200UTC 19.10.2019 72 29.5N 85.7W 988 45
0000UTC 20.10.2019 84 31.8N 81.9W 995 39
1200UTC 20.10.2019 96 34.9N 78.3W 996 41
0000UTC 21.10.2019 108 36.3N 73.2W 998 47
1200UTC 21.10.2019 120 36.7N 69.1W 1002 39
0000UTC 22.10.2019 132 37.0N 64.4W 1002 41
1200UTC 22.10.2019 144 34.6N 63.1W 1000 38

[Ivanhater]

Florida panhandle might get more than bargained for. A stronger system will not be as lopsided as a weak system

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1184499466566373378

[gatorcane]

Seems stronger = more east. Hopefully this is not the start of a strengthening trend with the globals. No invest yet?!? Would like to see output from the statistical models.

[Ivanhater]

Models consistent on NW Florida at this time

[wxman57]

Regarding the overall eastward trend, it wouldn’t surprise me if the center ends up going over the FL peninsula rather than over the FL Panhandle and also faster. Let’s see how trends go the rest of today.

That wouldn't surprise me, either.

[cycloneye]

No recon for today:

THE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 19-140
WAS CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1400Z.

[chaser1]

Yep, if the 12Z run were to verify then this could truly be a legit 996mb T.S. Perhaps it's quicker motion on this run suggests that it's own forward speed might be helping to mitigate westerly UL shear impact. I'm not sure I buy into continued deepening prior to landfall if that were to occur between Panama City and Apalachicola though. SST's are a bit warmer throughout the W. GOM but do drop off a degree (to about 82F) as the system travels east of 90W.

[chaser1]

Regarding the overall eastward trend, it wouldn’t surprise me if the center ends up going over the FL peninsula rather than over the FL Panhandle and also faster. Let’s see how trends go the rest of today.

That wouldn't surprise me, either.

What? Like Steinhatchee/Horseshoe Beach Fla. area? That would keep the storm south of Apalach. I just don't see that happening. As for the UK suggesting 988mb in 72 hr.'s..... I think it's "out to lunch". Winds may be right but the pressure just seems low to me.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS at 48 hrs is showing a stronger advection of mid-layer moisture over LL dry air.
This suggests very strong dry-line convection.
This in turn would interact with the forecasted PV Streamer and push out some of its inhibiting effects on vort stacking.
Latent heating from the dry-line convection would also suggest a longer duration warm core.
In other words, GFS is trending this being a warm core longer than previously forecasted.
Watching the dry-line convection and the Rossby Wave interaction will be key in judging strength at landfall.

[northjaxpro]

Florida panhandle might get more than bargained for. A stronger system will not be as lopsided as a weak system

Very true Ivan.

Apparently shear does not look to be as strong as initially depicted in earlier runs with the 12Z run coming onnmuvh better organized and stronger ss it approaches lanffall on Saturday. Interesting also that the UKMET is even stronger, which Larry posted just acfew posts ago.

It will be very interesting to see if the trend to a much stronger cyclone vontinues in runs coming a bit later...

[SFLcane]

Seems stronger = more east. Hopefully this is not the start of a strengthening trend with the globals. No invest yet?!? Would like to see output from the statistical models.

Maybe... but this shortwave does not appear deep enough.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS at 48 hrs is showing a stronger advection of mid-layer moisture over LL dry air.
This suggests very strong dry-line convection.
This in turn would interact with the forecasted PV Streamer and push out some of its inhibiting effects on vort stacking.
Latent heating from the dry-line convection would also suggest a longer duration warm core.
In other words, GFS is trending this being a warm core longer than previously forecasted.
Watching the dry-line convection and the Rossby Wave interaction will be key in judging strength at landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Dpop0WK.png

Shear is still screaming across the entire GoM right now, with most areas over 50 knots. This will have to play into this unless it diminishes as it moves NE toward the Gulf Coast.