Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[DestinHurricane]

NHC hinting at a quick recurve? Potentially

Did you not read the words "gradually westward"?

*generally

I haven't had my coffee yet this morning. Yes, generally westward.

I think they are following the other storms track. The track will ultimately depend on what kind of weakness Paulette and Rene leave.

[AutoPenalti]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

[BigB0882]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

For an incredibly active season, I just don't feel like we have had much of anything exciting to talk about or track. Lots of weak TSs that stayed out to sea or were not even worth mentioning.

[ConvergenceZone]

I’d be shocked if this doesn’t recurve. I had a feeling the models would start swinging in that direction

[LarryWx]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

For an incredibly active season, I just don't feel like we have had much of anything exciting to talk about or track. Lots of weak TSs that stayed out to sea or were not even worth mentioning.

Laura, an eastern MDR genesis, says “hello”.

[TheStormExpert]

Another vantage point...

https://i.imgur.com/TXPYCeY.png

Makes you wonder the the NHC’s 5-day development cone is sharply turned northwest?

[ConvergenceZone]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

For an incredibly active season, I just don't feel like we have had much of anything exciting to talk about or track. Lots of weak TSs that stayed out to sea or were not even worth mentioning.

Laura, an eastern MDR genesis, says “hello”.

I think he meant Besides Laura. Since you can get a Laura type storm in an extremely slow season as well

[LarryWx]

The 24 hour model consensus trend has clearly changed from barreling rapidly westward the first few days from Africa to close to a WNW move. This wave remains a huge wildcard. Fast development favors an easy OTS while remaining weak favors more of a potential threat to the Caribbean and further west. The modeling for this has gone back and forth quite a bit. Expect more twists and turns.

[SFLcane]

The 24 hour model consensus trend has clearly changed from barreling rapidly westward the first few days from Africa to close to a WNW move. This wave remains a huge wildcard. Fast development favors an easy OTS while remaining weak favors more of a potential threat to the Caribbean and further west. The modeling for this has gone back and forth quite a bit. Expect more twists and turns.

A lots going to depend on whether it's solely steered by the ridge or tugged by that weakness to the Northeast. For the next five or seven days

[crownweather]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

For an incredibly active season, I just don't feel like we have had much of anything exciting to talk about or track. Lots of weak TSs that stayed out to sea or were not even worth mentioning.

I've gotta disagree with you there. I think that there's been more than plenty to track & talk about. Most of the landfalling storms this season have strengthened all the way up to landfall.

We've had a total of 8 US landfalls this season. This is A LOT in any season.

[toad strangler]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

This one may end at less than 20

[MarioProtVI]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

[TheStormExpert]

12 pages for a wave inside Africa.

Wow.

This one may end at less than 20

It depends on its future fate. If it recurves OTS only affecting the fish, Bermuda, or The Azores than yes 20 pages is the likely outcome. Now if it goes on to affecting the Caribbean islands and potentially the U.S. than at least 200 pages seems likely. But this isn’t an Invest yet so this thread will likely end soon.

But S2K thrives off of storms and hurricanes that go on to affecting land especially the U.S. and Florida as that’s where most members are located on here. It gets boring talking about fish storms such as Paulette and Rene real fast!

[plasticup]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

We aren't even at the season peak yet. The real monsters are late-Sep early-Oct.

[TheStormExpert]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

The 200 units of ACE that NOAA was predicting just a month ago is likely in jeopardy regardless of the strength and fate of this wave. It would be interesting if NOAA or even CSU released a early September update to see what their thoughts are just after one month, but there’s really no point at this time in the season.

[Spacecoast]

06z GEFS- 91% Gen prob.
Much stronger (250 km 850 hPa circ), and slightly north from 18z

[TheStormExpert]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

We aren't even at the season peak yet. The real monsters are late-Sep early-Oct.

Peak season is tomorrow. And you can get monster storms anytime from especially August-October. Nothing special about late-September or early-October.

[aspen]

If this shift continues future Sally might not be as strong as anticipated and that means less ACE which means we are likely not going to get anywhere near the expected ACE thresholds of this season.

We aren't even at the season peak yet. The real monsters are late-Sep early-Oct.

All of the previous active seasons had a powerful storm during that time frame, and some were serious ACE generators. 2016 had Matthew (>50 ACE), 2017 had Maria (>40 ACE), 2018 had Michael (not a ton of ACE but got to Cat 5 status), and 2019 had Lorenzo (>20 ACE). The latter was an early recurve but was able to find favorable enough conditions to bomb out into a >120 kt TC twice. All four of these storms went down in history because of their devastating impacts or intensity. Even if future Sally doesn’t become the ACE monster we’ve been hoping for, the second half of the month and the first half of October could easily produce something that surpasses Laura in intensity and helps kick 2020’s ACE to above-average.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF Wind tracks..(excludes Paulette, & Rene tracks, not shown)
....also shows mid level disturbance drifting across FL

[gatorcane]

Saved loop, nice spin as it makes the plunge soon: