2021 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

98W

The first of a pair up.

[euro6208]

GFS keeps pushing back the other systems into June.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1394838993607352320




WPAC exploding. Too bad only satellite estimates?

[euro6208]

JMA 200 hPA has Velocity Potential Anomaly which is rising air and favorable for TC development persisting through the middle part of June.

WPAC isn't done.

[euro6208]

Furthermore, The MJO is currently moving through phrases 4 to 5 and into phrase 6 (WPAC) this week which may lead to additional TC development in a week. Monsoon trough very robust.

Quite bizarre the WPAC hasn't produced something during this strong MJO and KW. Maybe after?

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1397089825237340164

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1397089825237340164?s=20

I have hope for the JTWC when they add guys like Levi Cowan. Signs they are changing it around.

[Hayabusa]

98W got deactivated, models except for the Euro (but still has some EPS support) still try to develop it and a second one. How many times already since the start of May just even a named storm development has been pushed back?

[Kingarabian]

GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:



CMC/Euro don't show this.

[Hayabusa]

GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:
https://i.imgur.com/xSWUGFn.png
https://i.imgur.com/ueFYc0E.png

CMC/Euro don't show this.

It's fantasy but GFS has gone even more crazy on the 18Z run with 3 strong typhoons in June

The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover

[Hayabusa]

CFS forecast through June 20, nothing on the Euro (yet) nor hints in the ensembles but GFS says development is within 10 days already

[Kingarabian]

GFS has two more systems in about 10 days. The precursor seems to be an abundant amount of westerly winds near the equator:
https://i.imgur.com/xSWUGFn.png
https://i.imgur.com/ueFYc0E.png

CMC/Euro don't show this.

It's fantasy but GFS has gone even more crazy on the 18Z run with 3 strong typhoons in June
https://i.imgur.com/RTF5BHC.png
The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover

Yeah that's pretty nutty from the GFS but something to keep an eye out on. Good odds for typhoon development in the next 2-3 weeks. The GFS and the Euro show a strong -VP200 anomaly over the WPAC for the first 10 days of June.






http://www.weathermodels.com

[Kingarabian]

Crazy:

[mrbagyo]

model stuff
 https://twitter.com/ben108472/status/1399268022368444421

[404UserNotFound]

The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover

PLEASE tell me that someone has these runs saved! Since we haven't seen the real thing yet, a model run is the best we'll get right now for seeing an equatorial crossover.

[Hayabusa]

The GFS runs for pre-Surigae weren't as crazy as this only those times it was showing an equatorial crossover

PLEASE tell me that someone has these runs saved! Since we haven't seen the real thing yet, a model run is the best we'll get right now for seeing an equatorial crossover.

Here from page 1

Now this is a fantasy I would love to see
https://i.imgur.com/M84cVYa.gif

I wish I saved its weathernerds graphic cause you can customize the view, I would've saved it by showing both north/south of equator

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the Mei-yu is getting ready to crank up.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like the Mei-yu is getting ready to crank up.

https://i.imgur.com/RQcebv7.gif

Taiwan would love that

[1900hurricane]

JTWC and JMA forecast errors for each storm so far this young season.

[Hayabusa]

Euro ensemble in recent runs is showing development east of the Philippines but nothing in operational run (yet) only showing low vorticity and GFS (as usual) has since backed off for a significant typhoon development but is still developing a TC.