Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[aspen]

Here we go again. Yet another disturbance whose genesis is being pushed back after there was finally some good model support. Soon this will be dropped altogether and the models will focus on something else that also probably won’t develop.

[skyline385]

GFS further NW now

[skyline385]

Here we go again. Yet another disturbance whose genesis is being pushed back after there was finally some good model support. Soon this will be dropped altogether and the models will focus on something else that also probably won’t develop.

If this system busts as well then serious questions will be asked about what’s going on this season. The argument for a while has been that the Western Atlantic is much more favorable compared to the MDR and we have seen that on the shear plots posted yesterday too. The SSTs and OHC are plenty good here without any dry air problem in the Caribbean and the system has plenty of moisture to work with as well. So if this system is unable to form in what looks like favorable conditions with tropical forcing from the CCKW/MJO along with the vorticity enhancement from the cold surge then what more do the systems need to get going?

The GFS is also backing off again on the MDR development and showed all systems struggling for the next 15-days on 18Z and 0Z so that’s not a good look either.

[tolakram]

ICON dropping it or pushing it back, Euro still not on board, and GFS now in fantasy range.

[SconnieCane]

Here we go again. Yet another disturbance whose genesis is being pushed back after there was finally some good model support. Soon this will be dropped altogether and the models will focus on something else that also probably won’t develop.

What? 00Z and 06Z GFS remained consistent with a hurricane developing from the same general disturbance in the timeframe of the weekend after this coming one, although the exact timing and location have naturally bounced around quite a bit at this range.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57.5W from
03N to 20N moving westward at 5 kt. This wave is part of a
broad trough of low pressure that is east of the Windward Islands.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 06N to 09N. Scattered moderate convection
is within 150 nm east of the wave from 06N to 09N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the
wave from 11N to 13N. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development of this system in several days
while it is forecast to move across the Windward Islands and into
the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

[aspen]

Here we go again. Yet another disturbance whose genesis is being pushed back after there was finally some good model support. Soon this will be dropped altogether and the models will focus on something else that also probably won’t develop.

What? 00Z and 06Z GFS remained consistent with a hurricane developing from the same general disturbance in the timeframe of the weekend after this coming one, although the exact timing and location have naturally bounced around quite a bit at this range.

Yeah, but now genesis isn’t until the 5-8 day range and hurricane intensity is further beyond that. Yesterday’s runs had a TC in just 3-4 days. Every single strong storm on the models has been roughly a week away…for several weeks now.

[Blown Away]

ICON dropping it or pushing it back, Euro still not on board, and GFS now in fantasy range.

06z GFS Trend... There is a consistency with the GFS long range.

[N2FSU]

Looks like it's slowly trying to get it's act together.


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[SoupBone]

ICON dropping it or pushing it back, Euro still not on board, and GFS now in fantasy range.

Yeah there's something seriously wrong with the GFS, I hope they can figure it out. It's manic.

[Kohlecane]

https://i.imgur.com/pPPhKEF.gif
06z GFS Trend... There is a consistency with the GFS long range. [/quote]

Well I don't want another Matthew here in SC nor would I like to see LA get slammed very dramatic shift within a short period of time.. wonder if the 12z will have a CT storm

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

East of The Windward Islands:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development of this system in several days after
it crosses the Windward Islands and moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea late this week into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

Broad circulation there with limited convection.

[cycloneye]

Good thread that focuses on the dry air and that has been a big problen so far this season.

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1562406664531238913




 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1562406672160722945




 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1562406693899833344

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, that Dry Air doesn’t seem normal…

[NDG]

Here we go again. Yet another disturbance whose genesis is being pushed back after there was finally some good model support. Soon this will be dropped altogether and the models will focus on something else that also probably won’t develop.

I was about the post the same thing.
Back to concentrate on work, I have fairly busy next 7 days with work, maybe by then something may develop

[tarheelprogrammer]

Maybe we make it to mid or late September with no significant storm developing?

[ronjon]

ICON dropping it or pushing it back, Euro still not on board, and GFS now in fantasy range.

Yeah there's something seriously wrong with the GFS, I hope they can figure it out. It's manic.

Actually the GFS and ICON have pretty consistent in development of this system. Both models still show cyclogenesis. As far as eventual path, its 200+ hours, so expect wide swings at that time range.

[cajungal]

Definitely not complaining because I can’t take another hit after dealing with Ida last year. But this is so strange to be in late August and that much dry air.

[aspen]

Wow, that Dry Air doesn’t seem normal…

I’m leaning towards the possibility that all the water vapor dumped into the mesosphere by the Tonga eruption back in January messed up atmospheric temperature profiles/gradients, and has helped contribute to the dry air problem. Someone posted in the indicators thread how the water vapor from the eruption might’ve warmed that part of the atmosphere, which usually doesn’t have much WV.