Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

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toad strangler
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#221 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:35 pm

SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220919/d5e8998f104bc553a20e4f7b11d2b1a0.jpg


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Lol, shields up Florida! Jokes aside this could be trouble for many people.


Peeps on the pan handle are afraid of 10 day maps (rightfully so) but peninsula folk laugh at them. :D
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#222 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
skyline385 wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220919/d5e8998f104bc553a20e4f7b11d2b1a0.jpg


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Lol, shields up Florida! Jokes aside this could be trouble for many people.


Peeps on the pan handle are afraid of 10 day maps (rightfully so) but peninsula folk laugh at them. :D


That turn north will be critical surely.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#223 Postby AnnularCane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:40 pm



I keep thinking of this as the Spaghetti-O model. :lol:

Trapped, pick up, trapped, pick up. Make up your minds, models! :yayaya:
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#224 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:40 pm

Has our luck ran out in the US this tropical season? All models now on board with development. Will be watching this one closely on the Florida west coast.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#225 Postby chris_fit » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:42 pm

AnnularCane wrote:


I keep thinking of this as the Spaghetti-O model. :lol:

Trapped, pick up, trapped, pick up. Make up your minds, models! :yayaya:


It's going to be a long week or two ahead, if the wave does even develop. Otherwise the season/models are just trolling us.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#226 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:43 pm

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1571947851919360000


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#227 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:44 pm

This is what Heat Miser said about this.

12Z Euro caught whatever virus the 12Z GFS has. Major hurricane to NE Gulf coast 10 days.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#228 Postby sweetpea » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:45 pm

ronjon wrote:Has our luck ran out in the US this tropical season? All models now on board with development. Will be watching this one closely on the Florida west coast.


I will definitely be watching this one. This one would be really close to me, I live about 35 miles south of Tallahassee, a few miles from the Gulf. I know it is still 10 days out, but after watching my dad go through Maria and now Fiona it is scary.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#229 Postby lsuhurricane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:46 pm

Thats a rather misinformed tweet. All tried and true modeling kept Fiona a recurver (minus one GFS run). I get the overall point, but using the Canadian as a standard bearer of accuracy is lacking.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#230 Postby Landy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:48 pm

12z EPS.
Image
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#231 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:49 pm

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1571949016245735424


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#232 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:50 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:Thats a rather misinformed tweet. All tried and true modeling kept Fiona a recurver (minus one GFS run). I get the overall point, but using the Canadian as a standard bearer of accuracy is lacking.

Yea same, CMC was overdoing the ridging causing that solution but the recurve solution has been there for a while.


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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#233 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:50 pm


Point well taken, but we must admit this is a different situation. That cmc solution was seen from the start as an unlikely outlier. Assuming this storm forms (still questionable, looking more likely) it’s either going west, or eventually bending north. Since there’s not much to pull this north in the next couple of days, it seems a lot less likely that this would recurve east of the US like Earl or Fiona
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#234 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:52 pm

Welp those model runs are... interesting to say the least, could be a big one. Hopefully it doesn't end up too destructive
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#235 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:55 pm

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1571918696335159296


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#236 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:56 pm

First time looking at models this afternoon since this morning before I started to work. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Definitely not the trend in our favor for a threat for the US.
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#237 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:00 pm

Close up.

Image
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#238 Postby Spacecoast » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:03 pm

12z ECENS: Ensemble mean (thin black line), closely following 12z operational for 1st 216 Hrs.
Image
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#239 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:07 pm

Reminder that this is 2022 and models have been all over the place were talking 10 days out from any Conus impacts an internity. So much can and will change i assure you.

**** PROCEED WITH EXTREME CAUTION****
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Re: Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (0/20)

#240 Postby skyline385 » Mon Sep 19, 2022 3:11 pm

Here’s the full 12Z EPS run to 360 hrs, the entire north Gulf and Florida seems to be in play here

Image


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