2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[SFLcane]

Samething i have been saying in regards to the Conus and Caribbean. Lets hope things change!

 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1754870262070182067

This reply is either a cautionary tale or a harbinger depending on how you look at it:
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1754892702582227202?s=19
I'll note that 2010 did have 3 Caribbean hurricanes in Oct-Nov.

Models surely have improved since 2010 if the same look is there in May there is going to be problems.

[Zonacane]

The Gulf Loop Current showing up this early is a bad sign.

[weeniepatrol]

[NotSparta]

The Gulf Loop Current showing up this early is a bad sign.

Not necessarily, the loop current is always pretty noticeable on SSTs this time of year since its surroundings cool down a lot

https://i.imgur.com/gWAct1X.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/dhEmUsO.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/KFNLstZ.jpeg

Just wait until this hits...

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/gWAct1X.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/dhEmUsO.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/KFNLstZ.jpeg

Just wait until this hits...

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1204507270256402432/gefs_atl_slpa7day_2024020612_f258.png

Looks familiar

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/gWAct1X.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/dhEmUsO.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/KFNLstZ.jpeg

Just wait until this hits...

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/661421636003823632/1204507270256402432/gefs_atl_slpa7day_2024020612_f258.png

https://i.imgur.com/ve4BmH5.png
Looks familiar

No reason to think we will have anything other than a warm Atlantic this year.

[cycloneye]

A hint from him for the April forecast?

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1754564764770959402

[Category5Kaiju]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

 https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

[Hurricane2022]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).

And yet so many choose to bury their head in the sand while refusing to confront reality...but that's a debate for another time, I suppose

[Hurricane2022]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).

And yet so many choose to bury their head in the sand while refusing to confront reality...but that's a debate for another time, I suppose

It would still be very interesting to debate this subject here, but it would involve a lot of world politics, and that's why fights could even occur here because one person likes politician D, the other likes politician J, and they later ends up "combusting" in the middle of the subject being discussed because they differ a lot on the subject... ah, and also, 2024 is an election year in the USA. anyway, this is really a debate for another time in the future

[cycloneye]

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).

And yet so many choose to bury their head in the sand while refusing to confront reality...but that's a debate for another time, I suppose

It would still be very interesting to debate this subject here, but it would involve a lot of world politics, and that's why fights could even occur here because one person likes politician D, the other likes politician J, and they later ends up "combusting" in the middle of the subject being discussed because they differ a lot on the subject... ah, and also, 2024 is an election year in the USA. anyway, this is really a debate for another time in the future

Yes, no politics please. Let's keep the discussions about the indicators for the upcomming season.

[IsabelaWeather]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

********I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).*******

Not to let this get too OT, I just can't let the bolded part slide. This is so amazing false its amazing your post wasnt deleted. Any reputable climate scientist (even as bisased as they are), including the IPCC, agree this is wrong. https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/will-climate-change-drive-humans-extinct-or-destroy-civilization

A warmer earth is a better place to live, and the earth has been significantly warmer, and consequently, had much more life and biodiversity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_forests_of_the_Cretaceous

Plants grow more than twice as fast as they would today, their extent would also increase drastically. The current treeline in Canada is currently averaging around 62* as my best guess. This was as high as 85* in history, and the Last glacial maximum is it was around 30*.

The water cycle is massively enhanced and more places would record more rain, obviously some places would get drier, but they are generally dry today as well.

Accounts of severe weather would decrease due to the lowering of baroclinic activities.

The obvious wild card are TC's, do they increase in frequency or do they remain flat, as they have generally so far. Maybe new configurations bring new areas to receive them and old hotspots thin out, will be interesting to see, SST's alone do not create TC's.

[Hurricane2022]

And here I was, thinking 2023 would be the warmest the Atlantic could be

https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1754540413350732180

Well, in short: the world is cooking.

And this is alarming, because the way this warming is progressing makes us end up convincing ourselves that there is not much more we can do to try to at least slow this down a little...

********I think that in the next El Niño, we will end up realizing that the vast majority of humanity will likely not survive
past 2100 (or maybe even 2050).*******

Not to let this get too OT, I just can't let the bolded part slide. This is so amazing false its amazing your post wasnt deleted. Any reputable climate scientist (even as bisased as they are), including the IPCC, agree this is wrong. https://climate.mit.edu/ask-mit/will-climate-change-drive-humans-extinct-or-destroy-civilization

A warmer earth is a better place to live, and the earth has been significantly warmer, and consequently, had much more life and biodiversity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_forests_of_the_Cretaceous

Plants grow more than twice as fast as they would today, their extent would also increase drastically. The current treeline in Canada is currently averaging around 62* as my best guess. This was as high as 85* in history, and the Last glacial maximum is it was around 30*.

The water cycle is massively enhanced and more places would record more rain, obviously some places would get drier, but they are generally dry today as well.

Accounts of severe weather would decrease due to the lowering of baroclinic activities.

The obvious wild card are TC's, do they increase in frequency or do they remain flat, as they have generally so far. Maybe new configurations bring new areas to receive them and old hotspots thin out, will be interesting to see, SST's alone do not create TC's.

Well, I didn't expect anyone to take the last part seriously, but ok
In general, I was referring to temperatures that are (well) above average in the world, and they also have a contribution from fires and absurd amounts of gases emitted every day around the world. In my country, last spring and the current summer were one of the hottest (if not the hottest) years ever recorded, with temperatures reaching 45 - 47 degrees in several places, and the Amazon Rainforest and Pantanal breaking fire records, which they left the skies of nearby cities practically gray. However, January has been a violent month in terms of rain, with several cities, especially large ones such as Porto Alegre, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, suffering greatly from the extreme rains that killed many and took the homes of many others, despite the heat. have continued. It happened no differently in the Northern Hemisphere last summer of 2023, especially in the USA and Europe.
But overall, I really agree with your post. Thank you

[cycloneye]

To return the discussion back to the indicators, look how is the configuration on Febuary 6 in the basin.

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/andyhazelton/status/1755211902941032846

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1755059410722820444

[wxman57]

One clue as to the strength of the Azores-Bermuda High this year is SSTs in the deep tropics. The current negative NAO is due to a weaker high center. As a result, SSTs are warmer than last year at this time. Trade winds have been lower than normal, so not much upwelling of cooler water. Will this pattern continue through the season?

El Nino should be declining over the coming months, replaced by neutral conditions then possibly a weak to moderate La Nina by peak season.

As for analogs, one of the best I could find is 1998. I was talking to Phil Klotzbach. He agrees on 1998 as a good analog. Lots of subtropical activity, indicating a weaker Bermuda High. Georges made a significant impact on the NE Caribbean & Mississippi. Of course, there was also powerful Hurricane Mitch in the western Caribbean. For now, I'm thinking above normal activity with the majority of hurricanes north of the Caribbean again.

1998: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1998.png

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/SSTs.JPG

Just for the sake of it i don't see any climate model "for now" suggesting a weak high with tc's tracking north of the caribbean infact the total opposite. Surely one must never rely on precip maps for hurricane tracks but they do provide clues and they did pretty good last season.

https://i.postimg.cc/JnP1K3Pw/ukmet.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/tgzyCt01/hhh.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/7hGp7SRn/llloo.png

August z500 looks like widespread ridging look that could actually send stuff towards the caribbean.

https://i.postimg.cc/QCQv0jXF/8CUmJCuw.png

Climate models don't do well at forecasting the NAO months in advance. The current warm water in the deep tropics is due to very light trades. Will this continue through the hurricane season? Who knows? With 1998 as a good analog, I wouldn't say the Caribbean is "safe" from hurricanes this season, but I'm thinking that the majority of storms will pass north and/or east of the Caribbean.

I side with Wxman for now. Given the lack of Caribbean activity since 2009 most years except 2020, I usually assume going into the season that the Caribbean will continue to be a graveyard from a purely observational and casual perspective, but people who live down in the Caribbean should by no means apply this same assumption, it would be a dangerous gamble.

[SFLcane]

Buckle up folks!!

[SFLcane]

Close up of the wet caribbeam from todays Feb NMME.