2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[StormWeather]

When its 2 years after an El Nino, It's usually an active/impactful Atlantic hurricane season. Couple that with this year having 2017 as an ENSO analog.

My top analogs are 2008 and 2017. Both years were two seasons after an El Niño, and the LRC (if anyone here follows that) suggest we could see a pattern that could produce an Ike/Irma style track this year. Both years had plenty of Gulf action with minimal activity in the Caribbean and MDR.

The SHEM has acted most like the 2007-08 season with the SWIO and the AR being active to very active and the SPAC being mostly dead.

2008 had Hurricane Ike as a long-tracking Category 4 and 2017 had Hurricane Irma as a long-tracked Category 5

[chaser1]

When its 2 years after an El Nino, It's usually an active/impactful Atlantic hurricane season. Couple that with this year having 2017 as an ENSO analog.

My top analogs are 2008 and 2017. Both years were two seasons after an El Niño, and the LRC (if anyone here follows that) suggest we could see a pattern that could produce an Ike/Irma style track this year. Both years had plenty of Gulf action with minimal activity in the Caribbean and MDR.

The SHEM has acted most like the 2007-08 season with the SWIO and the AR being active to very active and the SPAC being mostly dead.

2008 had Hurricane Ike as a long-tracking Category 4 and 2017 had Hurricane Irma as a long-tracked Category 5

Half way through May and I see no indications of early season shenanigans thus far. No GOM or Caribbean upwelling ITCZ, no long range "model-canes", and pressures seemed rather high while glancing at the 500 mb anomaly analysis & forecast.

In terms of considering 2008 and 2017 as potential analog hurricane seasons, here are just two potential characteristics of those years that I think will be dissimilar from this year. Both 2008 & 2017 displayed early development (May 31 & April 19 respectively). Both of those years had 4 named storms form by the end of July. It's too early to know whether this season will also display similar activity but I see overall weather patterns as still being transitional and looking too early for tropical origin development, and minimally conducive to subtropical development (for the foreseeable outlook period). Things could change and "crap-o-genesis" could occur out of some decaying GOM front or subtropics cutoff north of the Bahamas but a couple of weeks more will bear that out.

As for the LRC, I like and buy into the concept of rhythmic large scale weather pattern re-alignments but I would need to deeply dive into Lezak's methodology and details of historical accuracy before jumping on that bandwagon. As it is, I think their 2025 season forecast suggests a rather active AND strong season (quite different from my own expectations).

[jconsor]

Detailed thread about recent trends in the Indian Ocean and ENSO regions, and indicators as to which seasonal models are more likely to have the right idea on ENSO situation during peak hurricane season:

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922643952135557481

[chaser1]

Detailed thread about recent trends in the Indian Ocean and ENSO regions, and indicators as to which seasonal models are more likely to have the right idea on ENSO situation during peak hurricane season:

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1922643952135557481

Interesting! Might this potentially imply sinking motion over adjacent W. Caribbean/GOM regions in conjunction with potential EPAC sinking air conditions?

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1924797846118924500

[TomballEd]

It is Joe Bastardi and it is 3 weeks away. He isn't a bad met, in my amateur opinion and I've met him ~20 years ago here in Houston. I do sense his inner weenie sometimes controls what he posts. There is a signal in the Euro weeklies...

 https://x.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1924810473951617244

[cycloneye]

@BenNollWeather
The Atlantic's first opportunity for a tropical storm or hurricane this year may come during early or mid-June.

A convective pulse will likely spawn an eastern Pacific hurricane next week before moving into the Gulf and Caribbean, where seas are much warmer than average.


 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1925197388941058192

[jconsor]

After not being much of a factor from 2019-24, looks like the N. Atlantic warm hole, a cool pool south of Greenland, is returning and should remain through peak hurricane season. This tends to ramp up the risk for E. Coast hurricanes, particularly slow-moving ones:
 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1925494559032668254

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1925525803133280424

[captainbarbossa19]

I figured I would repost this on this thread as we approach June 1.

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

[Category5Kaiju]

I figured I would repost this on this thread as we approach June 1.

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

And in 2024's case, a few revisions:

July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. However, the second storm manages to become a record-shattering, Cape Verde-originating Category 5 hurricane that wreaks havoc throughout the Caribbean Sea. Many are dumbfounded by what is happening and expect an exceptional season.

August 23rd: There are no invests in the Atlantic and models still don't show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a busy season and believe that there's some x factor in the season that suggests a tremendous bust despite what happened in early July.

August 31st: There is still no active TC. Many people appear shocked by the slow activity.

[SconnieCane]

Last year was exceptionally bizarre IMO and proves there's still much we don't know when it comes to making seasonal forecasts.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1926688551304925217

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1927040144449683510

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan first Video for 2025 season

Good discussion from him that I recommend all to see it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZoJXfZVleak

[jconsor]

In my view, it's mportant not to lump all La Ninas together. Modoki (central Pacific-based) La Ninas are notably different from traditional (East Pacific-based) Ninas. This has big implications for the level of Atlantic TC activity and where in the basin it tends to be focused. This year is more likely to end up a Modoki La Nina, with cooler water relative to normal focused in the central Pacific:

 https://x.com/yconsor/status/1927306239920283821

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1927185083376550005



 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1927241087480984003



Interesting thread here. The top three analogs presented by Andy (1989, 2000, 2021) all had tendency towards more mdr activity and less Caribbean and west Atlantic activity.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan message about 11-15 of June oportunity for some development as MJO gets to the Caribbean.

 https://x.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1927379609877651892

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1927451569206763838