SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

Scorpion · #221 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 1:56 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:GO, GO EL NINO! GO, GO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS!

We had neutral conditions in 2004 and 2005. La Nina doesn't really affect the number of storms as much as you think.

MiamiensisWx · #222 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 1:58 pm

Scorpion wrote:We had neutral conditions in 2004 and 2005. La Nina doesn't really affect the number of storms as much as you think.

Oh... however, it does affect storm numbers very slightly. Also, a strong El Nino would impact storm numbers.

Scorpion · #223 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:10 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Scorpion wrote:We had neutral conditions in 2004 and 2005. La Nina doesn't really affect the number of storms as much as you think.

Oh... however, it does affect storm numbers very slightly. Also, a strong El Nino would impact storm numbers.

Of course a strong El Nino, but there is no chance of any El Nino whatsoever this year. Neutral to weak La Nina is what will occur.

MiamiensisWx · #224 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:13 pm

Scorpion wrote:Of course a strong El Nino, but there is no chance of any El Nino whatsoever this year. Neutral to weak La Nina is what will occur.

Huh? It is still early! Also, with current rapidly cooling SST anomalies in the Atlantic and warming SST anomalies in the Pacific, there is less of an indication of a La Nina than there has ever been over the last several months. Neutral conditions or El Nino conditions is what we're looking at.

MiamiensisWx · #225 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:14 pm

NOTE - THIS THREAD WILL BE LOCKED. I POSTED A NEW SST THREAD IN TALKING TROPICS. HEAD ON OVER THERE AND WE WILL DISCUSS SST TRENDS OVER THERE!

#226 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:19 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:NOTE - THIS THREAD WILL BE LOCKED. I POSTED A NEW SST THREAD IN TALKING TROPICS. HEAD ON OVER THERE AND WE WILL DISCUSS SST TRENDS OVER THERE!

This thread will remain open for depth analysis of the ssta's and ssta's both in the Atlantic and Pacific as it has been here since this forum was created.Anyone can replie here and at the CapeVerdeWave thread at talking tropics about this theme.

MiamiensisWx · #227 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:20 pm

Oh... OK! Thanks for the information, cycloneye!

#228 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:

This weeks update of the Atlantic anomalys show less warm readings off the COA area but still there are values around +1.5c there.At the MDR area the temps are near normal around +0.5c.Where is really cool is in the NE GOMwhere temps around -3.5c are found.Also off the east coast of the US cool waters are there but not as cold as the eastern GOM.In general a somewhat less warm Atlantic in this update.

In the equatorial Pacific less cooler waters are seen in this weeks update especially at el nino 1-2 area off SouthAmerica.El nino 3 has pockets of cool anomalys but in general neutral ENSO is there.Let's watch both the Atlantic and Pacific to see if trends develop on both basins,in the Atlantic the trend for cooling and in the Pacific the trend for warming.

Hurricaneman · #229 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jan 02, 2006 2:44 pm

Looks Neutral to me right now, and the Atl seems to be cooling some

#230 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 6:47 am

No update from the BoM today. They must have spent the day watching their team bat in the cricket.......... :lol:

(I'm well aware that comment won't mean much to most of you though)

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #231 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:09 am

P.K. wrote:No update from the BoM today. They must have spent the day watching their team bat in the cricket.......... (I'm well aware that comment won't mean much to most of you though)

Cheers!

#232 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:38 am

Scorecard
Day 3 Report

It will most likely end a draw as there are only two days left.

Anyway back on topic.... :wink:

#233 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:55 am

Hmmm they always have those updates early but not today.

#234 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:18 pm

Interesting.... Last time cooling was mentioned but not La Nina itself.

CURRENT STATUS as at 4th January 2006
Next update expected by 25th January 2006 (three weeks after this update).

| Summary | In Brief | Details |

Summary: A neutral Pacific, but with some characteristics of a La Niña.

The overall ENSO pattern remains neutral, although with some features of a weak La Niña. This is particularly evident in the cold subsurface waters of the east Pacific, and the reduced cloudiness in the central Pacific. On the other hand, the SOI remains neutral, sea surface temperatures are a little cooler than normal and Trade Wind patterns are mixed.

There is a chance that with further cooling, the pattern might develop into a La Niña for a brief period, although most computer predictions of ocean temperatures indicate a continuation of neutral conditions until the middle of 2006.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

#235 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:25 pm

Interesting that update.Now let's see in the next 3-6 months what will occur in the pacific.But my take is that neutral condictions will be the rule during the first half of 2006.After june we will see how it all evolves.

That update came very late right P.K?

MiamiensisWx · #236 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 7:38 pm

Huh? Right now, SST amomalies in the Pacific seem to be warming, even in parts of the central Pacific. Why do they say that SST anomalies or SSTs in parts of the Pacific are still cooling?

Jim Hughes · #237 Postby **Jim Hughes** » Wed Jan 04, 2006 9:56 pm

CapeVerdeWave wrote:Huh? Right now, SST amomalies in the Pacific seem to be warming, even in parts of the central Pacific. Why do they say that SST anomalies or SSTs in parts of the Pacific are still cooling?

Because it has been getting cooler. If you look at the weekly numbers you can see that the Nino 3.4 region is slightly less than 1/2 a degree cooler during December compared to November. This is the area they tend to look at the most.

I have heard people mention a possible El Nino next season. This is nonsense.

NO El Nino ahead.....The South Pacific is starting to look like it does during a negative PDO phase. Which loads the dice for a La Nina phase. The North Pacific had been looking like that early last month but it changed to neutral / positive. This lack of a negative PDO, for now, may be the key to how strong it will be.

The subsurface in the equatorial Pacifc is also pointing toward a cooling trend. It also is trying to move west in my opinion. I strongly believe that we will be seeing the SOI join in with this cooling phase in early March. We should see some moderate to strong positive daily readings start to show up.

I think everyone is getting confused because of the waxing and waning of the anomalies. The cooling phase can develop from east to west or vice versa. This occurs in decadal patterns.

It seems to be spreading west. So we are currently not seeing the cooler anomalies hugging the South America coast...or what is known as Nino 1+2. Do not let this fool you though.

Jim

#238 Postby **P.K.** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 5:50 am

cycloneye wrote:That update came very late right P.K?

It was released a day later than it says on the update yes. (Just before the 4th day of the test match started funnily enough.... :lol:

(

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #239 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Jan 05, 2006 6:08 am

A la nina means more of a 2004 like season. But a 2004 with 20 or more tropical cyclones.

:eek:

#240 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:19 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:A la nina means more of a 2004 like season. But a 2004 with 20 or more tropical cyclones.

Not necessary that can take place with la nina.

SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic and Pacific

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