TD#9

[vbhoutex]

I only see one spin and it is to the LLCC. It still has a large circulation and is drawing in from far away(not saying it is consolidating, it is spread out). I do not see any other CC's ML or otherwise.

[cycloneye]

Thunder44 another sign that this is opening to a wave is that the 12:00z Model Guidance didn't come out.

[Frank2]

True - I'm sure we'll hear more about this in the TCD at 11.

Frank

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like we might have our first TD that never makes it to TS status of the year.

[Thunder44]

Thunder44 another sign that this is opening to a wave is that the 12:00z Model Guidance didn't come out.

I'm not sure. The center maybe broad, but they can still pinipoint a center to input into the model runs. They just maybe late.

On the NRL site it has the position further north than they last model runs:

09LNONAME.25kts-1010mb-155N-367W.jpg

[storms in NC]

With most TD that just came of the coast do don't do well till they get farther down the road so to speak. It will go with a few changes and then we will have the storm on track. so just set tight and wait a day or two and you will see.

[wxman57]

Don't get mad, folks, but, please try not to post those very large photos - they make for long download times.

Frank

Sure Frank, I just edited my posts to make the images links. I guess some people are still on dial-up out there? Somehow, they seem quite small on my laptop (1900 x 1200 pixel resolution).

[DESTRUCTION5]

Jeanne did the same thing after being destroyed but Hati..Spit out her LLC and you know the rest of the story...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wouldn't a dissipating TD#9 enhance the possibilities of the next wave "making it"? -She would cut the clear pathway in the SAL if some went north and some energy continued west.
Plus, if possible #10 catches up to the westward moving energy, couldn't they merge?

I tend to think #9 is going bye bye as the exposed LLC heads to the NW/NNW while soon to be #10 enjoys the easy ride that #9's remnants provide so it can get to at least 50 west easily.

[recmod]

I think the NHC floater and Navy Site satellite images very clearly show the well defined, but completely exposed circulation center located north of 16N. The circulation center is far north of any convection...to my untrained eye, this looks like a severely sheared system, though the NHC says that shear is very low in the area.

Navy Site


--Lou

[vbhoutex]

wouldn't a dissipating TD#9 enhance the possibilities of the next wave "making it"? -She would cut the clear pathway in the SAL if some went north and some energy continued west.
Plus, if possible #10 catches up to the westward moving energy, couldn't they merge?

I tend to think #9 is going bye bye as the exposed LLC heads to the NW/NNW while soon to be #10 enjoys the easy ride that #9's remnants provide so it can get to at least 50 west easily.

I'm not so sure TD#9 will go bye bye-definitely in sleeper mode for a while though. You bring up an intersting point here and I would like to hear some of the more versed professionals opinions on this as it sounds plausible to me but I am not sure.

[Frank2]

Re: wxman57's post

Thanks - even with our upgraded system, the web site was slow in opening due to the large images in this thread.

Well, TD9 seems to be near history, and is why I don't try to get too excited about something that far at sea (see?).

One more time - this season is quickly becoming vastly different than the last, when systems made the trip easily across the Atlantic. With the exception of Dennis and Emily, this is not the case this year, and, with the exception of both hurricanes, every other system so far (7 of them) have not exceeded tropical storm strength - something to really consider.

Frank

[jax]

Re: wxman57's post

Thanks - even with our upgraded system, the web site was slow in opening due to the large images in this thread.

Well, TD9 seems to be near history, and is why I don't try to get too excited about something that far at sea (see?).

One more time - this season is quickly becoming vastly different than the last, when systems made the trip easily across the Atlantic. With the exception of Dennis and Emily, this is not the case this year, and, with the exception of both hurricanes, every other system so far (7 of them) have not exceeded tropical storm strength - something to really consider.

Frank

keep in mind... it's only August 5th...

[vbhoutex]

Re: wxman57's post

Thanks - even with our upgraded system, the web site was slow in opening due to the large images in this thread.

Well, TD9 seems to be near history, and is why I don't try to get too excited about something that far at sea (see?).

One more time - this season is quickly becoming vastly different than the last, when systems made the trip easily across the Atlantic. With the exception of Dennis and Emily, this is not the case this year, and, with the exception of both hurricanes, every other system so far (7 of them) have not exceeded tropical storm strength - something to really consider.

Frank

Could you elaborarte further your thougts on this? It has some far reaching implications on the surface at first glance. I have been wondering about the fact we have had 8 TC's but only two have become hurricanes, although they were both majors. Is this going to continue or as we get into the "heat of the season" is it going to ramp up intensity wise? I think most of us will agree that we will see many more TC's before the season is over.

[Frank2]

Too true - but, this slanted statistic really might say something about the potential of the season as a whole...

[jax]

Re: wxman57's post

Thanks - even with our upgraded system, the web site was slow in opening due to the large images in this thread.

Well, TD9 seems to be near history, and is why I don't try to get too excited about something that far at sea (see?).

One more time - this season is quickly becoming vastly different than the last, when systems made the trip easily across the Atlantic. With the exception of Dennis and Emily, this is not the case this year, and, with the exception of both hurricanes, every other system so far (7 of them) have not exceeded tropical storm strength - something to really consider.

Frank

Ivan was the first storm to make it accross last year... that
happened Sep 2nd...

edited... correction... Frances was the first... originated Aug. 25th

[Jim Cantore]

this thing just collapsed overnight I was shocked to see it

[caribepr]

"HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES."

FORECASTER AVILA

I really love that line (and the whole discussion). It would be a good one to scotch tape to our computers.

Re Frank's comment about not getting too excited when these systems are so far out - absolutely another valuable point to remember. I know I always am checking on what is going on, but the reality is, until a few days out or less, anything can happen and often does (at least around these parts!). Live prepared, enjoy the day, hope for the best.

[dwg71]

There is a long time yet to go in the season. Hopefully we wont see anything like we did last year in the regards to landfall. I can handle an active season, but not a destructive one.

We can have 42 named storms, just let them all be TS or fish.

I still say Gray is high at 20. 16 or 17 is my guess.

[Frank2]

Re: vbhoutex's post

Oops - I posted to jax just as you posted.

Yes, it seems to be far-reaching, though some might argue that the June/July period usualy does feature weaker systems that the August/September period, still, there seems to be something in the environment that is putting a lid on the systems.

Even Dennis and Emily weakened considerably before landfall, which is a good thing, however, it seems that the environment as a whole is not completely favorable for cyclone development - as if the mechanism for a record season is there, but the process for powerful cyclones, isn't.

As you said, it is a topic of large proportions, and, as the 11 a.m. TCD mentions, leaves forecasters realizing that not everything is known about cyclone development.

Frank