TS Katrina,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[WeatherEmperor]

I can see the center clearly on radar using GARP. From 23Z-00Z, it moved 13.8 nautical miles toward 285.3 degrees. Center is pretty close to that NHC 00Z position of 26N/77.6W. Maybe a hair north of 26N at 0005Z.

Good. Please keep updating us with that information as much as you can.

<RICKY>

[SapphireSea]

That would make it about 275-295 degrees in movement.

[wxman57]

From 2304Z to 00005Z, I measure a movement of 13.7 nautical miles at 285 degrees. Still WNW for the past hour. That would be 15 mph, not 8 mph.

[Thunder44]

TPNT KGWC 250005
A. TROPICAL STORM KATRINA (TWELVE)
B. 24/2331Z (73)
C. 25.5N/2
D. 77.3W/7
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS -24/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .60 USING THE LOG10
SPIRAL GIVING A DT OF 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT...MET
AGREES...BUT PT STILL YIELDS A 2.5.

AODT: T4.3 (UNIFORM CDO CLD RGN)

LAURENTI

[wxwatcher91]

24/2345 UTC 26.0N 77.8W T3.0/3.0 KATRINA

[Frank P]

review this radar presentation and it looks to be heading due west attm, right at Fort Laud...

my opinion of course

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[wxman57]

Here's a 1-hr 2-image loop I made that shows movement. I put a small "x" in the center. I still get close to 15 mph movement at 285 deg:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrinaloop1.gif

[Frank P]

also if you look really carefully at the center you will notice two things, its tightening up and the convection is building (turning darker green)

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's a 1-hr 2-image loop I made that shows movement. I put a small "x" in the center. I still get close to 15 mph movement at 285 deg:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrinaloop1.gif

15mph? how could that be?

<RICKY>

[Frank P]

Here's a 1-hr 2-image loop I made that shows movement. I put a small "x" in the center. I still get close to 15 mph movement at 285 deg:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrinaloop1.gif

that certainly looks wnw to me... however, reviewing the past 30 minutes or so on radar it looks more west than wnw... could be just a w wobble and over time it will average out to WNW... will know shortly

[jrod]

I can never decide which topic is the best to post on. Here is a little copy and paste + the weather station link.

You can see the center of circulation, what may be an eye on the NWS Miami's radar. You cant miss it on the loop, it is just east of the south end of Abaco Island. It appears to be moving due west or even slightly south of west to me. I think it will be a hurricane and if it slows down enough before Florida then it will be more than a minimal hurricane. I think Boca Raton will see the eye pass over them.

Link to still:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Link to loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Link to weather station on Grand Bahama Island: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
The wind isn't very strong but the pressure is dropping and the wind is on the increase. This station will be very interesting to monitor over the next day.

[shaggy]

i know how EVERYONE hates the GFS with katrina but it no longer shows a landfall in Florida and actually keeps the system to the east and runs it up the EC to a cape lookout NC landfall.It is probably not correct but needs to be atleast considered since it has been really consistent with this sort of track reasoning.

[wxman57]

Here's a 1-hr 2-image loop I made that shows movement. I put a small "x" in the center. I still get close to 15 mph movement at 285 deg:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrinaloop1.gif

15mph? how could that be?

<RICKY>

That's what I get when I put my cursor on the first image, set a point, then move my cursor to the location of the center 1 hour later. In GARP, I get a readout of the point-to-point distance. And that distance is 13.7nm or about 15 miles.

[Recurve]

OK, away from the TV again. Norcross wasn't precise, unclear if he meant it's turning westerly or it was going "west" -- same words could mean two different things. Certainly use the NHC track and the excellent analysis by the pros here, not a blurb on TV or what I report hearing.

Rain hasn't let up for an hour, pretty steady and hard. I'm glad to be on the south side of this thing.

Not predicting "bombing" or anything like that, but always wise to prepare for one category higher than forecast. If you are in a mobile home or a very low lying area, make a plan now for what you will do first thing in the morning. Since the weather will be worse on the north side, if you are in Palm Beach or points north, you may want to plan to go to a shelter a few miles away if you think you're home isn't safe or you might be stranded by flooding. Evacuation doesn't have to be a trek to the next state, just far enough to get you out of an unsafe situation. Always pay attention to the official NHC advisories!!

[Frank P]

wxmn57, the last few loops of the radar presentation hints that the center might be filling in, or at least it sure is getting smaller... any ideas on what happening to it...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kamx.shtml

[Javlin]

I thought I was seeing things earlier thinking she had picked up speed.If that's the case does that mean she might go W further and maybe miss some of the influences of th troph.

[WeatherEmperor]

Here's a 1-hr 2-image loop I made that shows movement. I put a small "x" in the center. I still get close to 15 mph movement at 285 deg:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katrinaloop1.gif

15mph? how could that be?

<RICKY>

That's what I get when I put my cursor on the first image, set a point, then move my cursor to the location of the center 1 hour later. In GARP, I get a readout of the point-to-point distance. And that distance is 13.7nm or about 15 miles.

How long do you think this 15mph speed will last? According to NHC it is supposed to gradually decrease in forward speed as it approaches the south florida coast. Any thoughts on that?

<RICKY>

[SapphireSea]

It has moved faster for a few hours. I believe it's all going to boil down to a 275 degree heading avarage. Zooming is dangerous when figuring a heading. I'd keep a view of the state while doing that. (Made that Error with Frances when I was doing an XTRAP prediction and was off by alot).

[wxman57]

I can never decide which topic is the best to post on. Here is a little copy and paste + the weather station link.

You can see the center of circulation, what may be an eye on the NWS Miami's radar. You cant miss it on the loop, it is just east of the south end of Abaco Island. It appears to be moving due west or even slightly south of west to me. I think it will be a hurricane and if it slows down enough before Florida then it will be more than a minimal hurricane. I think Boca Raton will see the eye pass over them.

Link to still:http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Link to loop: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml

Link to weather station on Grand Bahama Island: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1
The wind is very strong but the pressure is dropping and the wind is on the increase. This station will be very interesting to monitor over the next day.

You have to be a bit careful estimating movement on a radar without latitude/longitude lines visible. It makes it hard to discern a precise movement as the latitude lines may not be exactly horizontal on the image. Also, I notice some "crud" obscuring the top part of the center. This could give the illusion of a more westerly motion if your eye is just tracking the rain-free area. That said, I think I do see a wobble to the west in the last few images as the crud began clearing out of the center.

[Sanibel]

It worries me that the SW quadrant is so thick. Lots of energy in the right places for a spin-up.

North section looks like it took a load of dynomat - but it is probably the ridge causing it to suck in dry air from that side...