Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

Website · #221 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:36 pm

[quote="cycloneye"http://met.psu.edu/~arnottj/CHARM/tcgengifs//gfdl/2005091712-invest17l//slp21.png

Here is the graphic of GFDL that Truballer#1 posted at the wrong thread.[/quote]

:shocked!:

cajungal · #222 Postby **cajungal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:36 pm

That would be scary if that verifies. Until this thing becomes a TD, we won't know exactly where the center is. Thus, the models will keep changing over and over. But, it looks better and better organized by the minute.

Charles-KD5ZSM · #223 Postby **Charles-KD5ZSM** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:39 pm

Well, here comes another one. The way it looks, i'll be busy again

. So far, the katrina victims have to watch out. I guess we'll find out later tomorrow. My name is charles from south mississippi. i am new to storm 2k but not to weather. My aim screen name is dixieboy61 availible Mondays-Fridays.

truballer#1 · #224 Postby **truballer#1** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:39 pm

here is where the site for gfdl and other models u can look at

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

vaffie · #225 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:42 pm

The 12Z Nogaps model brings it over the northern tip of Cuba, takes it past Cancun, brings it close to northern Mexico, and then it starts curving north towards Texas/Louisiana. If we average out the models, some like the GFDL seeing a weaker ridge, bringing it almost due NW from south Florida, and the others like CMC, NOGAPS, and GFS which see a stronger ridge that keeps it going due west, it really begins to look like Texas/Louisiana may be in danger.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

#226 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:42 pm

there is a front draped across the south now and it is moving eastward. Will this front dip into the gulf in a few days? -and where will 96L be when and if that happens?
Bottom line, does west coast of Florida need to watch this one or are we ok???

SouthFLTropics · #227 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:45 pm

I don't know...maybe it is just me but I don't think that 96L looks that good on the western atlantic sat pic...To me the convection doesn't seem all that impressive right now...But I could be missing something...TD17 on the other hand looks very healthy!!! I hope it is a fish!

vaffie · #228 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:48 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I don't know...maybe it is just me but I don't think that 96L looks that good on the western atlantic sat pic...To me the convection doesn't seem all that impressive right now...But I could be missing something...TD17 on the other hand looks very healthy!!! I hope it is a fish!

In a way, you're right, it hasn't looked especially that good recently, but the last image--the 19:15Z satellite picture that was taken after a four-hour satellite blackout shows strong convection forming directly over the center for the first time.

southerngale · #229 Postby **southerngale** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:49 pm

I thought there was going to be a strong ridge in place to protect the Northern/NW GOM. Now I'm seeing some of the models curve more to the north. What are they doing with the ridge?

#230 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:57 pm

got to remember...NOW....it will weaken...plus this looks like a slow mover

f5 · #231 Postby f5 » Sat Sep 17, 2005 3:57 pm

looks like Katrina is going to pay another visit

jkt21787 · #232 Postby **jkt21787** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:00 pm

f5 wrote:looks like Katrina is going to pay another visit

I think Katrina is long gone, at least as an active storm. Its memories are still here and will be with us for a long time.

ronjon · #233 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:15 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:there is a front draped across the south now and it is moving eastward. Will this front dip into the gulf in a few days? -and where will 96L be when and if that happens?
Bottom line, does west coast of Florida need to watch this one or are we ok???

Yes, we on the west coast need to watch it but not get too excited about it since its 4-5 days away. Too early to tell which way its gonna go - probably some certainty toward the tip of S FL or the keys but after that the models diverge - & we really won't get a good handle on that for another day or two. The global models predict a strong ridge building east from TX along the northern GOM. Some models are now showing that ridge to retrograde west due to a trough that will be migrating toward the SE states the middle of next week. Other models show the ridge holding strong. Too early to tell but its a good bet this storm will be a hurricane and possibly a major hurricane due to the warm SSTs in the bahamas and FL straits

#234 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:16 pm

Is 96L forming an eye??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

:lol:

krysof · #235 Postby **krysof** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:16 pm

lol No!

#236 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:19 pm

Blown_away wrote:Is 96L forming an eye??

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html

Optical illusion. Cirrus moving SW-NE across an area free of convection cut off a circular area. Any developing LLC is well west of there, too.

#237 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:22 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 172119
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA...LOCATED ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA
SCOTIA....AND ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN LOCATED ABOUT 290
MILES EAST OF BARBADOS.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 170 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
SLOWLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

#238 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:32 pm

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY...MODELS
INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...HOWEVER MODELS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SMALL POPS AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK WHEN CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND READINGS SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE.

ROCK · #239 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:36 pm

ivanhater wrote:Mobile/Pensacola AFD

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FORECASTED TO BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY...MODELS
INDICATING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...HOWEVER MODELS
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME POPS TO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SMALL POPS AT THIS TIME. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY PRETTY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT
WEEK WHEN CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE AND READINGS SHOULD MODERATE A
LITTLE.

more sensible discussion than our HOU /GAL AFD. Where is that person who said HOU NWS was all about hype??

Rainband · #240 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Sep 17, 2005 4:38 pm

Until it is a named system the models will have trouble with it. Look at where Ophelia was headed before it was named. The best place to be is the first place the models point to. IMHO :wink:

Invest 96L,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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